GDP estimation errors: bias or white noise

Abstract

Questions have been raised about the accuracy and bias in the widely used advanced estimates of gross domestic product published by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. This article will examine the data for any outward sign of prejudice or systematic bias. This pragmatic look at the numbers should help policy and business users of this information build confidence in the early GDP estimates.

Keywords:

• GDP
• bias
• estimates
• national accounts

JEL Classification:

• E00
• C10
• O47