Publication bias in FDI spillovers in developing countries: a meta-regression analysis

Abstract

We used a recent meta-regression-analysis (MRA) method to investigate the publication bias of the intra-sectoral foreign direct investment (FDI) spillovers in a large sample of developing countries. Recent meta-analyses on this topic suggest that publication bias is not a problem for this field. Using a much larger sample of studies this article, however, finds substantial evidence of publication bias. Evidence suggests a preferential tendency to publish the article if studies reject the null hypothesis, that is, when the investigations produce positive and statistically significant findings. We collected 1450 spillover estimates conducted by 93 researchers from 69 primary empirical studies dealing with 31 developing countries for the period 1986–2013. We found that the FDI spillover effects are suffering from significant and meaningful publication bias. The bias ranges from 0.51 to 1.34, implying that the empirical effect size appears substantially much larger than the actual spillovers. Our results also indicate that for this field of research, publication bias is largely due to self-censorship rather than the censorship by reviewers and editors of journals.

Keywords:

• meta-regression analysis
• foreign direct investment
• spillovers
• publication bias
• developing countries

JEL Classification:

• C10
• F23
• O12

Acknowledgements

The author would like to thank Peter van Bergeijk, Mansoob Murshed, Zahra Zarepour and participants of the 2014 German Economic Association conference (Passau) and the 2014 MAER-Net colloquium (Athens) for helpful comments. The author would also like to thank all the authors of primary studies who responded to his request for additional data or clarification.

Additional information

Funding

The author is indebted to the Economics of Development and Emerging Markets research programme at the International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam for the financial support and research assistance.