Impacts of the Arab Spring on trade in airline services

ABSTRACT

This article examines the impacts of the ‘Arab Spring’ on trade in air services between the various North African and Levant countries involved. Studies of the implications of these socio-economic changes on trade in the region are made difficult because of a paucity of good economic data and the involvement of outside countries in the trade that now takes place. The number of international airline seats available provides a partial and fairly reliable variable to examine trade patterns. The analysis looks at changes in patterns of trade in these services between 1997 and 2013.

KEYWORDS:

• Arab Spring
• airlines
• international trade
• political instability

JEL CLASSIFICATION:

• F14
• L93
• O19
• N77

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

¹ Looked at from an investor’s perspective, the WPAX is picking up the α risk associated with the overall aviation market, and GDP the β risk for the airline market of the particular country concerned.

² The other agreements include the Arab Common Market, the United Arab Republic, Federation of Arab Republics, Arab Cooperation Council, the Greater Free Arab Free Trade Agreement and the Agadir Agreement.

³ The model was also tested using country fixed effects, but collinearity meant that Arab Maghreb Union was not estimated.