Blue Beijing: estimating the effects of temporary emissions restrictions on air quality

ABSTRACT

The article uses a quasi-experimental regression discontinuity approach to estimate the effect of temporary emissions restrictions on air quality in China. While temporary emissions control is an effective strategy in response to high-pollution events, China has been using this temporary policy instrument to improve air quality during events of international exposure. We find that post-restrictions peak levels of fine particulate matter are extremely high. This finding uncovers unintended consequences of temporary polluting restrictions.

KEYWORDS:

• Beijing
• air quality
• temporary emissions restrictions
• peak pollution concentrations

JEL CLASSIFICATION:

• Q53
• Q58

Acknowledgement

This research was supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada [IDG 430-2014-01050].

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

¹ The set of temporary restrictions affected Paris and 22 surrounding areas and involved a reduction of the speed limit and a ban of vehicles with uneven number plates. The restrictions reduced traffic jams by approximately 40%. Source: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/23/paris-smog-pollution-emergency-measures-traffic. Accessed on 31 March 2016.

² See Chen et al. (2013b).

³ See http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/04/beijing-smokescreen-hide-pollution-apec. Accessed on 31 March 2016.

⁴ See http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/04/asia/china-beijing-blue-sky-disappears-after-military-parade/. Accessed on 31 March 2016.

⁵ For both events, the Chinese Ministry of Environmental Protection sent 15 inspection teams to important locations across different municipalities and provinces. Sources: South China Morning Post (http://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/1627530/drones-and-inspection-teams-used-monitor-pollution-ahead-apec-summit) and Caixin Online (http://english.caixin.com/2015-08-20/100841881.html). Both websites accessed on 31 March 2015.

⁶ Sources: American data, U.S. Department of State (http://www.stateair.net/web/historical/1/1.html). Accessed on 22 November 2015. Chinese data, AQIStudy (http://www.aqistudy.cn/historydata/daydata.php?city=%E5%8C%97%E4%BA%AC&month=201601). Accessed on 24 November 2015.

⁷ Increases in air quality are captured by decreases in the AQI. Source: China’s Ministry of Environmental Protection (http://kjs.mep.gov.cn/hjbhbz/bzwb/dqhjbh/jcgfffbz/201203/W020120410332725219541.pdf). Accessed on 1 February 2016.

⁸ Source: http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/ZBAA/2015/1/1/CustomHistory.html?dayend=18 monthend = 12 yearend = 2015 req_city = req_state = req_statename = reqdb.zip = reqdb.magic = reqdb.wmo. Accessed on 24 November 2015.

⁹ Similar results are found using the ±80-day window.

¹⁰ Source: https://www3.epa.gov/pmdesignations/faq.htm. Accessed on 29 March 2016.

¹¹ Source: https://www.epa.gov/criteria-air-pollutants/naaqs-table. Accessed on 29 March 2016.

¹² See World Health Organization (2006).

¹³ Also available at https://www3.epa.gov/pm/2012/decfsstandards.pdf. Accessed on 29 March 2016.

¹⁴ Source: https://www3.epa.gov/airnow/aqi_brochure_02_14.pdf. Accessed on 29 March 2016.

Additional information

Funding

This research was supported by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada [IDG 430-2014-01050].