Campaigning and election outcomes in a presidential primary election

ABSTRACT

This article presents new evidence from the US presidential primary setting on the role campaigning plays in determining election outcomes. Using candidate visits as a measure of campaign intensity, I estimate a discrete choice model of voting using a differentiated products framework where I allow for abstention and create instruments for campaigning based on Democratic Party rules for delegate allocation. On average, a visit by a candidate increases the vote share of this candidate by about 2.4 percentage points and decreases the abstaining share by 0.7 percentage points.

KEYWORDS:

• Campaigning
• election outcomes

JEL CLASSIFICATION:

• D72
• H0

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

¹ See Stratmann (2005) for a review of the literature.

² Gius (2010) presents evidence that since spending is tied to contributions, regressions should control for the party affiliation of voters. As both candidates are Democrats in the primary, and there were noticeable differences of support along certain demographic characteristics, it is important to include these controls.

³ The website was accessed throughout the primary cycle. http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008-presidential-candidates/tracker/dates/.