Assessing the trade response to pandemic-related non-tariff measures

ABSTRACT

This paper assesses the global trade effects of COVID-19-related non-tariff measures (NTMs), with a particular emphasis on their varied impacts across products and income groups over time. Utilizing a newly constructed NTM dataset alongside monthly trade data at the product level, we employ an event study framework to analyze the implications of trade-facilitating and trade-restricting NTMs implemented during the pandemic. Our main findings indicate an average increase of 1.2% in imports due to trade-facilitating NTMs and a 12% decrease in exports due to trade-restricting NTMs. Additionally, the analysis highlights variations in trade responses at the product level and significant differences across countries of varying income levels. This research enhances our understanding of the trade response to sudden trade cost shocks, offering critical insights into the impact of temporary trade measures within the context of a global health crisis and accompanying supply chain disruptions.

KEYWORDS:

• Non-tariff measures
• COVID-19 pandemic
• event studies
• trade effects
• treatment heterogeneity

JEL CLASSIFICATION:

• F13
• Q17

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This work is supported by the National Institute of Food and Agriculture through the Agriculture and Food Research Initiative, Award 2023-67023-39114. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Department of Agriculture.