How population ageing affects tourism trade balance

ABSTRACT

Age demographics as a potential determinant of tourism trade balance has been unexplored. This complete paucity of research motivates us to extend the extant literature by first proposing a theoretical relationship between population ageing, a major demographic transition currently faced by the OECD countries, and tourism trade balance in those countries and an empirical examination afterwards. The long-run results of the ARDL framework under structural breaks confirm that population ageing significantly affects tourism trade balance in 7 out of 15 OECD countries considered in this study. The signs and magnitudes of the long-run effects, and consequently the policy implications, are country-specific.

KEYWORDS:

• Demography
• OECD
• tourism
• trade balance

JEL CLASSIFICATION:

• F41
• J11

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Supplementary material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2024.2386153.