Questioning democracy promotion: Belarus' response to the ‘colour revolutions’

Abstract

The article focuses on the aftermath of the colour revolutions by analysing and questioning the real success, as often depicted by the West, of democracy promotion in the East European region. First of all, the article challenges the conventional logic of democracy promotion – even when backed by moral reasoning and resource availability – as sufficient and adequate for instigating democratic change in non-liberal regimes. By examining the case of Belarus it further contends that authoritarian regimes effectively learn to resist and counteract foreign-led democracy promotion, and often do so legitimately, with a minimal use of force. The article concludes that in order to exercise democracy promotion (if such a thing is possible at all) a far deeper understanding of autocratic narratives is needed, associated with a much closer look at societal norms and values, as well as an individual country's geopolitical resources and strategies.

Keywords:

• colour revolutions
• democracy promotion
• Belarus
• authoritarian regimes
• societal norms and values

Acknowledgement

I wish to record my gratitude to the ESRC (RES-061-25-0001) for the financial support of my project, and the anonymous referees for their comments on the earlier version of this article. I also would like to dedicate this article to the memory of my colleague and friend, Vital Silitski, whose untimely death left us utterly bereft.

Notes

Lukashenko, ‘V Belarusi Budut Sokhraneny’.

The years 2010 and 2011 have witnessed new uprisings in the EU Southern Neighbourhood (Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Jordan, Syria, Yemen, and others), which could be classed as a third generation of the new-type (‘colour’) revolutions, analysis of which, due to the limits of space, is beyond the scope of this article.

The ‘Bulldozer Revolution’ in Serbia (2000) is perhaps one of the few exceptions here.

Kuzio, Aspects of the Orange Revolution VI; Journal of Democracy, ‘Debating the Color Revolutions’; Diamond, The Spirit of Democracy; D'Anieri, ‘Explaining the Success and Failure of Post-Communist Revolutions’; Simecka, ‘Diffusion and Civil Society Mobilisation in Coloured Revolutions’.

This included ‘Cedar Revolution’ in Lebanon (2005), ‘Purple Revolution’ in Iraq (2005), ‘Carnation Revolution’ in Armenia (2007), and a ‘Twitter Revolution’ in Moldova (2009).

Lane, ‘Coloured Revolution as a Political Phenomenon’; White and McAllistair, ‘Rethinking the “Orange Revolution”’; Beachain, ‘Roses and Tulips: Dynamics of Regime Change in Georgia and Kyrgyzstan’; Wilson, ‘Belarus Between “Coloured Revolution” and “Counter-Revolutionary Technology”’.

Lane, ‘Coloured Revolution as a Political Phenomenon’, 132.

This term is used in opposition to the ‘international diffusion’ of democratic breakthroughs. For more on ‘international diffusion’ see Bunce and Wolchik, ‘Getting Real about the “Real Causes”’; Heathershaw, ‘Rethinking the International Diffusion of Coloured Revolutions’.

The focus of this article is the 2006 failed revolutionary attempt in Belarus. The events of the December 2010 elections and their analysis are beyond the scope of this article.

Rakhmanova, Democratic Revolutionary Handbook, a documentary which seeks to reveal the mechanics as well as the controversies of modular (colour) revolutions in Eastern Europe. For more information see a critical appraisal of the film at http://icarusfilms.com/new2007/demo.html.

The numbers varied depending on the source of reporting from 10,000 to 35,000. See for example, OSCE/ODIHR, Republic of Belarus; Zarakhovich, ‘V Belarusi – Revolutsiya?’.

As the OSCE reported, in Minsk alone the number of individuals sentenced in a single day exceeded a record-breaking 200. For more information see OSCE/ODIHR, Republic of Belarus, 25.

Independent Institute for Socio-Economic and Political Studies, polls, http://www.iiseps.org/poll06.html

Intimidation was deployed by authorities, but it was comparably moderate and mainly covert. Large-scale violence was absent. For more information see Martinovich, ‘Protokoly Chekistskikh Mudretsov’; Zarakhovich, ‘V Belarusi – Revolutsiya?’; ‘Ulada Baittsa Kastusia Kalinouskaga’; ‘Khto Lepsh Zasvoiy Vuroki Pamaranchavai Revalyutsii?’.

Silitski, ‘Pamyatats’, shto Dyktatury Ruinyyuttsa'; Chavusau, ‘Zhdani i nadzei Kastrychnitskai Ploschy’.

Lenin, ‘May Day Action by the Revolutionary Proletariat’.

For more discussion see the special issue of the Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics 25 (2009); Lankina and Getachew, ‘A Geographic Incremental Theory of Democratization’; Burnell, ‘Political Strategies of External Support for Democratization’; Carothers, ‘The Backlash against Democracy Promotion’.

Lane, ‘Coloured Revolution as a Political Phenomenon’.

Way, ‘The Real Causes of the Color Revolutions’.

Levitsky and Way, ‘Linkage versus Leverage’; Way and Levitsky, ‘The Dynamics of Autocratic Coercion after the Cold War’.

Kuzio, Aspects of the Orange Revolution VI; Journal of Democracy, ‘Debating the Color Revolutions’.

Play on words using Gregory Ioffe's title of the book, Understanding Belarus and How Western Foreign Policy Misses the Mark.

Bunce and Wolchik, ‘International Diffusion and Postcommunist Electoral Revolutions’; Kuzio, Aspects of the Orange Revolution VI, 10–11.

For more information see special issue ‘Rethinking the “Coloured Revolutions”’, Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics.

Bunce and Wolchik, ‘International Diffusion and Postcommunist Electoral Revolutions’.

Rakhmanova, Democratic Revolutionary Handbook, offers a comprehensive guide as to how the colour revolutions were organized in Eastern Europe.

Bunce and Wolchik, ‘International Diffusion and Postcommunist Electoral Revolutions’.

A more illustrious debate concerning the role of territoriality and the role of geographical proximity has been raised by Tomila Lankina and Lullit Getachew in their seminal article ‘A Geographic Incremental Theory of Democratization’. There they argue about the importance of a geographical incremental process for the pace of democratization, facilitated by the regional exposure to the external environment and its gradual adaptation to the norms and standards necessary for cooperation.

For more information and examples, view Tatjana Rakhmanova's documentary Democratic Revolutionary Handbook (2006), and references to evidence in Lane and White, Rethinking the ‘Coloured Revolutions’.

Way, ‘The Real Causes of the Color Revolutions’, 56.

For more information see Beissinger, ‘Structure and Example in Module Political Phenomena’; Hale, ‘Regime Cycles’.

Beissinger, ‘Structure and Example in Module Political Phenomena’, 263.

Ibid., 272.

A number of successive events counteract the alleged success of colour revolutions in the region: violent outbreaks in Georgia throughout 2008–2010, government instability and permanent crisis in Ukraine since 2004; ‘precarious democracy’ and authoritarian trends in Kyrgyzstan especially in 2008–2009.

Lane, ‘Coloured Revolution as a Political Phenomenon’. The article offers ample evidence to substantiate the reference to ‘revolutionary coup d’état' in the case of the ‘colour revolutions’.

Ibid., 118–19.

Ibid., 119.

Chaulia, ‘Democratisation, NGOs and “Colour Revolutions”’.

Lane, ‘Coloured Revolution as a Political Phenomenon’, 116–17.

‘Georgia: Sliding Towards Authoritarianism?’; Brill Olcott, ‘The New Political System in Kyrgyzstan’; Walker and Goehring, ‘Petro-Authoritarianism and Eurasia's New Divides’.

For more analysis of this term refer to Lane, ‘Coloured Revolution as a Political Phenomenon’.

Bunce and Wolchik, ‘International Diffusion and Postcommunist Electoral Revolutions’, 31.

Ibid.

Nye, Soft Power.

For further explanation of this claim refer to Rakhmanova's Democratic Revolutionary Handbook.

Nye, ‘Why Military Power is No Longer Enough’, quoted in Lane, ‘Coloured Revolution as a Political Phenomenon’, 115.

Philippov, ‘“Oranzhevye” tekhologii v Belorussii primenimy, no neeffectivny’.

Way, ‘The Real Causes of the Color Revolutions’, 57, emphasis added.

Rakhmanova, Democratic Revolutionary Handbook .

Way, ‘The Real Causes of the Color Revolutions’, 57.

Ibid., 58–9.

Ibid., 60.

Ibid., 65.

For more discussion see Korosteleva, ‘Was There a Quiet Revolution?’; Korosteleva, ‘The Limits of the EU Governance’; Korosteleva, ‘Is Belarus a Demagogical Democracy?’.

Silitsky, ‘Preempting Democracy’; Silitski, ‘Pamyatats’, shto Dyktatury Ruinyyuttsa'.

That is, when the regime manipulates public needs to legitimize its (poor) performance: in particular, when the president ordered the cutting of some public subsidies he immediately offered respective justifications (from ideological to institutional) to allay public anxiety.

For more extensive discussion, see Silicki, ‘Belarus’; White, Korosteleva, and Lowenhardt, Postcommunist Belarus.

Leshchenko, ‘The National Ideology and the Basis of Lukashenka Regime in Belarus’; Marples, ‘Color Revolutions’; Marples, The Lukashenko Phenomenon.

This first of all includes legislative anti-revolution provisions (Law of Defamation of state officials; Law on Counteraction of Extremism; Law on Some Changes and Amendments into the Criminal Code Increasing Responsibility for Crime against Individuals and State Security; Changes and amendments related to some issues of financing terrorism; decrees on responsibility of acting on behalf of unregistered organizations, or criminalizing training and other preparations that may lead to the violation social order, etc). See Pontis Foundation, ‘Anti-Revolution Legislation’.

The non-aligned states movement (NAM) is an association of about 118 developing states to represent the interests of the developing world. For more information see http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/2798187.stm.

Bajmukhametov, ‘Аpraudanne Raseiai zhorstkastsi Belaruskikh uladau vygliadae prosta zhakhliva’.

For closer analysis of ‘authoritarian pre-emption’ refer to Silitsky's ‘Preempting Democracy’.

Lukashenko, ‘V Belarusi Budut Sokhraneny Mir, Spokoistvie I Stabil'nost’.

Silicki, ‘Belarus’, 78.

Ibid.

Pop-propaganda is a technical term to describe a government's actions which target the wider population through pop-concerts, pop-entertainment etc.

Rakhmanova, Democratic Revolutionary Handbook.

Martinovich, ‘Revolyutsii ne budet’.

Martinovich, ‘Protokoly Chekistskikh Mudretsov’, emphasis added.

Ibid.

Zarakhovich, ‘V Belarusi – Revolutsiya?’.

Ibid.

Silicki, ‘Belarus’.

Wilson, ‘Belarus Between’, 95.

‘Kresy’ means ‘borderland’, here referring to the Polish-owned period of Belarus' history.

Burger, ‘The Divergence between Declaratory and Action Policy’.

Ibid., 34.

Center for Political Education, ‘Belarus After Election’.

Logvinovich, ‘Aleksandru Lukashenko stalo tesno v Belorussii’.

Ibid.

Matikevich, Nashestvie; Sheremet and Kalinikina, Sluchainyi President; Feduta, Lukashenko.

Philippov, ‘“Oranzhevye” tekhologii v Belorussii primenimy, no neeffectivny’.

Nobody doubted Lukashenko's victory in elections either in 2006 or 2010, even if they were fraud-free and absolutely transparent. For more information see http://www.charter97.org/bel/news.

Logvinovich, ‘Aleksandru Lukashenko stalo tesno v Belorussii’.

For full discussion of ‘legitimacy’ see Clark, ‘Legitimacy in a Global Order’, 79.

‘People’ in this context means general public opinion, as evidenced from nation-wide opinion polls (March–April 2011).

Max Weber, quoted in Clark, ‘Legitimacy in a Global Order’.

The survey was conducted during March 2011 by the Centre for Political Research, Belarusian State University, under the ESRC-funded project (RES-061-25-0001). For more information see the project website and synopsis of findings at http://www.aber.ac.uk/en/interpol/research/research-projects/europeanising-securitising-outsiders.

For more discussion of the economic factor see Korosteleva, ‘When Time Goes Backwards’; Ioffe, Understanding Belarus and How Western Foreign Policy Misses the Mark.

This is even despite the recent terrorist attack that took place in Minsk (11 April 2011) during rush hour at the busiest interlinking underground station of the city, leaving 14 dead and over 200 injured. The author witnessed the aftermath of the event.

The data is quoted from the 2011 post-election survey conducted in Belarus under the ESRC-funded project ‘Europeanising or securitising the outsiders’ (RES-061-25-0001).

For more information see http://www.iiseps.org/arhdata.html, which is also corroborated by the findings of our survey, available as a synopsis from http://www.aber.ac.uk/en/interpol/research/research-pojects/europeanising-securitising-outsiders.

For more discussion of Belarus' economic ‘miracle’ and the prospects of its sustainability see Korosteleva, ‘Belarus’ Foreign Policy at the Time of Crisis'; Zlotnikov, ‘The Belarusian Economic Miracle’; Yeremeyeva, ‘The Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Belarusian Economy’.

For more discussion of ‘differences’, especially values-based, see Korosteleva, Eastern Partnership.

For more information visit the project's website http://www.aber.ac.uk/en/interpol/research/research-projects/europeanising-securitising-outsiders.

The normative disjunction is far broader than is suggested here, and embraces all non-liberal democracies. In this article, however, Belarus, Russia, Ukraine and Moldova are used as the case studies of the project to substantiate the point.

For more information see Korosteleva, Eastern Partnership. Case studies included interviews with politicians, focus groups and nation-wide surveys. A synopsis of research findings can be found at http://www.aber.ac.uk/en/interpol/research/research-projects/europeanising-securitising-outsiders/.

The West's projection or anticipation of the adoption of liberal democracy elsewhere in the world irrespective of particular societal values, perceptions and traditions, is succinctly summarized in David Collier and Steven Levitsky's article, where they classify all ‘other forms’ of democracy as those with ‘missing attributes’ of the liberal model. For more information see ‘Democracy with Adjectives’.

Lane, ‘Coloured Revolution as a Political Phenomenon’, 132.

Kurki, ‘Democracy and Conceptual Contestability’; Hobson, ‘Democracy as Civilisation’; Biryukov and Sergeyev, ‘The Idea of Democracy in the West and in the East’; Duncan, Democratic Theory and Practice.

Lane, ‘Coloured Revolution as a Political Phenomenon’, 132.

Ibid., fn. 56.

Please see fn. 29 for further information. Note that ‘unpacking Western support’ was not the purpose of the article. Instead, the focus was on why Lukashenko's regime survived the colour revolutions relatively unchallenged.

The December 2010 presidential election and especially its aftermath, however, offer a somewhat different picture of authorities' response to the public uprising – more violent, more brutal and spontaneous. The analysis of recent events in Belarus, however, is beyond the scope of this article.