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Abstract
Russia's recent actions in its neighbourhood have not only upset Western policies but have also reinvigorated arguments that Russia may be promoting autocracy to counteract democracy promotion by the European Union and the United States. They have also underlined a broader problem: that of how illiberal powers may react to democracy promotion, especially when their strategic interests are at stake. This article investigates these issues by studying Russia's interactions with the countries in its neighbourhood and democracy promoters. First, the article argues that even if Russia has contributed to the stagnation of democratization and ineffectiveness of democracy promotion in its neighbourhood, its actions do not constitute autocracy promotion and largely lack ideological underpinnings. Second, Russia's counteraction to democracy promotion stems from its ambitions of restoring its great power status, maintaining its regional influence, and perceiving Western policies as a threat to its interests. Third, when it considers its strategic interests undermined, Russia employs economic and military threats (sometimes incentives) against its neighbourhood countries to make the compliance with Western policies less preferable.
Acknowledgements
I also thank Thomas Risse, two anonymous reviewers, and the participants of the workshop for their insightful comments and suggestions on the earlier draft of this article.
Notes on contributor
Nelli Babayan is a senior researcher at the Center for Transnational Relations, Foreign and Security Policy at the Otto Suhr Institute of Political Science, Freie Universität Berlin. She is the author of Democratic Transformation and Obstruction: EU, US and Russia in the South Caucasus (Routledge, 2015).
Notes
1. Risse and Babayan, “Democracy Promotion and the Challenges of Illiberal Regional Powers.”
2. Delcour and Wolczuk, “Spoiler or Facilitator of Democratization? Russia's Role in Georgia and Ukraine.”
3. Risse and Babayan, “Democracy Promotion and the Challenges of Illiberal Regional Powers.”
4. Bader, Grävingholt, and Kästner, “Would Autocracies Promote Autocracy?”; Cameron and Orenstein, “Post-Soviet Authoritarianism”; Melnykovska, Plamper, and Schweickert, “Do Russia and China Promote Autocracy in Central Asia?”; Tolstrup, “Studying a Negative External Actor.”
5. Tsygankov, “If Not by Tanks, Then by Banks?”; Babayan, “The South Caucasus.”
6. Taylor, “Is China Looking to Vladimir Putin for Tips on Suppressing Hong Kong Protests?”; Zakaria, “The Rise of Putinism.”
7. Whitehead, The International Dimensions of Democratization.
8. Johnson, “In Pursuit of a Prosperous International System”; Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace; Kegley and Hermann, “In Pursuit of a Peaceful International System.”
9. Bader, Grävingholt, and Kästner, “Would Autocracies Promote Autocracy?”
10. Whitehead, The International Dimensions of Democratization.
11. Obydenkova and Libman, “Understanding the Foreign Policy of Autocratic Actors.”
12. Burnell, “Is There a New Autocracy Promotion?”
13. Dempsey, “Europe's Response to Morsi's New Powers”; Hamid, “The Brotherhood Will Be Back.”
14. Obydenkova and Libman, “Understanding the Foreign Policy of Autocratic Actors,” 350.
15. Trenin, “Drivers of Russia's Foreign Policy.”
16. Putin, “Russia Crossing the Millenia.”
17. Lipman, “Putin's ‘Sovereign Democracy.’”
18. Pavlikova, “Association with the EU Means Broadening of Gay-culture Sphere [Assotsiatsiya s ES oznachaet rasshirenie sfery gay-kulturi].”
19. Wilkinson and Langlois, “Special Issue”; Browne and Nash, “Resisting LGBT Rights Where ‘We Have Won.’”
20. Trenin, “Drivers of Russia's Foreign Policy,” 36.
21. The oppositional parties argue that this move intends to prolong the power of the incumbent president, Serzh Sargsyan, who is barred from running for a third consecutive term. Nevertheless, this example attests to Russia's indifference to regime particularities as long as its interests stay intact.
22. Linz, “The Perils of Presidentialism”; Przeworski et al., Democracy and Development.
23. Mahony, “Orban Wants to Build ‘Illiberal State.’”
24. Rywkin, Moscow's Lost Empire.
25. Krickovic, “Imperial Nostalgia or Prudent Geopolitics?”; RIA News, “The U-Turn over the Atlantic.”
26. Putin 1999 in Bullough, “Vladimir Putin.”
27. Secrieru, “Russia's Foreign Policy Under Putin”; US Embassy Cable, Russian Analysts Tell A/s Gordon Anti-Americanism Pillar of Russian Foreign Policy.
28. Trenin, “Drivers of Russia's Foreign Policy,” 36.
29. Shevtsova, “Russia under Putin.”
30. Balmforth, “Levada Center, Russia's Most Respected Pollster, Fears Closure”; Goncharenko, “Rallying behind Russia's ‘Foreign Agent’ Levada Center.”
31. Levada Center, “Russians about Ukrainian Events.”
32. Levada Center, “Indice.”
33. Carothers, “Barack Obama”; Chen and Kinzelbach, “Democracy Promotion and China”; Hassan, “Undermining the Transatlantic Democracy Agenda?”
34. Babayan, Home-Made Adjustments; Lynch, “George W. Bush,” 188.
35. Rutland, “Still out in the Cold?”
36. Sakwa, “Looking for a Greater Europe.”
37. Newsru, “Putin Is Unanimously Elected.”
38. BBC, “Russian NGO Bill Signed into Law.”
39. Cooper, “Promises of ‘Fresh Start’ for U.S.-Russia Relations.”
40. Rosenberg, “US Agency Expelled from Russia.”
41. Newsru, “Putin Is Unanimously Elected.”
42. Nicola, “Europe's Pipeline War”; BBC, “Putin Pushes Forward Gas Pipeline.”
43. RT, “Washington Pushing Ukraine to Conflict.”
44. Rosenblum, “Twenty Years of Democracy and Governance Programs in Europe and Eurasia”; Nuland, “Toward a Transatlantic Renaissance”; Nuland, A Pivotal Moment for the Eastern Partnership.
45. Babayan and Braghiroli, “Il Buono, Il Brutto, Il Cattivo?”
46. ENPI Info, Reliable and Strong, like a Bear; Armenpress, “EU Poll Shows Armenians Have Positive Attitude toward Armenia-EU Relations.”
47. RFE/RL, “Armenian Opposition Launches New Wave of Protests.”
48. Migdalovitz, Armenia Update; RFE/RL, “Rostelekom Intends to Invest”; Elliott, Wikileaks Cable.
49. Lazaryan, “Medvedev.”
50. Füle, “Statement on the Pressure Exercised by Russia.”
51. RFE/RL, “Transdniester Deepens Ties With Russia.”
52. Interfax, “Chisinau”; Moldova.org, “Russia Likely to Ban Wines from Moldova on Wednesday”; Heil, “Dour Grapes.”
53. EurActiv, “Russia Hits at Ukraine with Chocolate War”; Reuters, “UPDATE 1-Russia Bans Ukrainian Dairy Imports from Six Companies.”
54. Rettman, “EU and Ukraine Suspend Trade Pact.”
55. Council of the European Union, EU Sanctions against Belarus Extended; US Treasury Department, “Belarus Sanctions.”
56. Zaynalov, “Azerbaijan-Gazprom Agreement.”
57. US Embassy Cable, Azerbaijan; Zaynalov, “Azerbaijan-Gazprom Agreement.”
58. Niftiyev, “Gazprom-SOCAR Gas Deal.”
59. Bildt, “Armenia U-Turn.”
60. Gevorgyan, “Putin Protest”; Bank, “Russia Pressures Armenia.”
61. Socor, “Iran-Armenia Gas Pipeline: Far More than Meets the Eye.”
62. Movsisian, “Russian-Armenian Gas Deal Ratified Amid Parliament Turmoil, Protests”; Stepanyan, “The Issue of Gas Price.”
63. Harutyunyan, “Russian Utility Seeks Early End to Armenian Nuclear Plant Management.”
64. Grove, “Russia Starts Delivering $1 Billion Arms Package to Azerbaijan.”
65. RFE/RL, “Yerevan Confident About Association Agreement With EU.”
66. Banks.am, “We Should Find the Formula of Interaction with Customs Union, Tigran Sargsyan Says”; Hayrumyan, “Customs Union Is Ransom for Tigran Sargsyan.”
67. PanArmenian.Net, “NSC Chief.”
68. Lazaryan, “Medvedev.”
69. Magen, Risse, and McFaul, Promoting Democracy and the Rule of Law; Babayan and Risse, So Close but Yet So Far.
70. Orban, “Viktor Orbán’s Speech.”