Conclusion: agency, context and emergent post-uprising regimes

Abstract

This conclusion summarizes the evidence explaining the divergent trajectories taken by post Arab uprising states in terms of multiple variables, each illustrated by an iconic case, namely: State Failure and Competitive governance (Syria), Regime Restoration and Hybrid Governance (Egypt) and Polyarchic Governance (Tunisia). Factors include the starting point: levels of opposition mobilization and regimes' resilience – a function of their patrimonial-bureaucratic balance; whether or not a transition coalition forms is crucial for democratization prospects. Context also matters for democratization, particularly political economic factors, such as a balance of class power and a productive economy; political culture (level of societal identity cleavages) and a minimum of international intervention. Finally, the balance of agency between democracy movements, Islamists, the military and workers shapes democratization prospects.

Keywords:

• Arab uprisings
• agency
• political economy
• political culture
• post-uprising governance
• failed states
• Islamists
• social movements
• military
• workers movements
• Syria
• Egypt
• Tunisia

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes on contributor

Raymond Hinnebusch is professor of international relations at the University of St Andrews. His books include International Politics of the Middle East (Manchester, 2015); Syria: Revolution from Above (Routledge, 2001); Egyptian Politics under Sadat (Cambridge, 1985). Recent works on the Arab spring and democratization include “Change and Continuity after the Arab Uprising: The Consequences of State Formation in Arab North African States” (British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 2015); “Toward a Historical Sociology of the Arab Uprising: beyond Democratization and Post-Democratization” (in Handbook of the Arab Uprising, ed. Larbi Sadiki, Routledge, 2015).

Notes

1. Brynen et al., Beyond the Arab Spring, 119–46.

2. Heyderian, How Capitalism Failed, 95–110; Lynch, The Arab Uprising, 146–59.

3. Lynch, The Arab Uprising, 210–3.

4. Brynen et al., Beyond the Arab Spring, 119–46.

5. Bellin, “Authoritarianism in the Middle East.”

6. Gause III, “Why Middle East Studies Missed the Arab Spring.”

7. Tripp, The Power and the People, 163.

8. Rueschemeyer et al., Capitalist Development and Democracy.

9. Aschar, The People Want, 152–99.

10. Moore, The Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy.

11. Aschar, The People Want, 13–8.

12. Robinson, Promoting Polyarchy.

13. Tripp, The Power and the People, 175; Aschar, The People Want, 290–3.

14. Brynen et al., Beyond the Arab Spring, 95–100.

15. Zubaida, “The ‘Arab Spring' in Historical Perspective.”

16. Brynen et al., Beyond the Arab Spring, 95–117.

17. Stepan and Linz, “Democratization Theory.”

18. Brynen et al., Beyond the Arab Spring, 233–56; Heyderian, How Capitalism Failed, 151–71; Lynch, The Arab Uprising.

19. Huntington, Political Order.

20. Jones, “The Rise of Afghanistan's Insurgency,” 17.

21. Tilly, Coercion, Capital, and European States.

22. Mosca, The Ruling Class; Michels, Political Parties.

23. Cavatorta, “The Convergence of Governance.”

24. Rustow, “Transition to Democracy.”

25. Huntington, Political Order.