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ABSTRACT
The 14th Malaysian General Elections (Pilihanraya Umum, 14, PRU 14) in 2018 proved to be a watershed election as Barisan Nasional (National Front, BN) lost power for the first time in history. Pakatan Harapan (Alliance of Hope, PH), led by former BN leader and Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad, captured the majority of parliamentary seats. This article analyses the impact of Mahathir specifically, and credible personalities in general, in unseating dominant one-party regimes. I argue that credible personalities are vital in causing transitions in dominant one-party systems. Explanations on transitions from authoritarian regimes in the literature have typically revolved around incumbent weakness and opposition strength. While dissatisfaction toward the regime is a necessary condition for transition, it is not sufficient. Personalities which can adequately appeal to the masses are important to bridge the credibility gap which the opposition may otherwise have to grapple with. Mahathir’s presence in the opposition was crucial to PH’s victory, as he provided the credibility boost which the opposition needed. This was particularly important for Malay voters. This study is situated within the literature on parties, elections and democratization.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
Notes
1 O’Donnell and Schmitter, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule, 19.
2 The idea of a “credibility gap” was introduced by Ong and Tim in “Singapore’s 2011 General Elections and Beyond.”
3 Carothers, “The End of the Transition Paradigm.”
4 Schedler, “The Menu of Manipulation”; Levitsky and Way, Competitive Authoritarianism.
5 Hadenius and Teorell, “Pathways from Authoritarianism.”
6 Bellin, “Reconsidering the Robustness of Authoritarianism,” 143.
7 Magaloni, “Voting for Autocracy,” 20.
8 Geddes, “What do we Know about Democratization”; Gomez, Malaysia’s Political Economy; Morgenbesser, “The Failure of Democratisation.”
9 Bermeo, “Rethinking Regime Change”; Haggard and Kaufman, “The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions.”
10 Pepinsky, Economic Crisis and the Breakdown of Authoritarian Regimes.
11 Slater, Ordering Power; Case, “Can the “Halfway House” Stand.”
12 Brownlee, Authoritarianism in an Age of Democratization.
13 Collier, Paths Toward Democracy.
14 Stockmann and Gallagher, “Remote Control”; George, Freedom from the Press.
15 Samuels and Snyder, “The Value of a Vote”; Mutalib, “Constitutional-Electoral Reforms.”
16 Albrecht, “How Can Opposition Support Authoritarianism?”; Fjelde, “Generals, Dictators and Kings.”
17 Manan, “A Nation in Distress”; Pereira, Political (In)Justice.
18 Greene, “The Political Economy of Authoritarian Single-Party Dominance.”
19 Abdullah, “Bringing Ideology In.”
20 Weiss, Protest and Possibilities.
21 Bunce and Wolchik, “Defeating Dictators.”
22 Howard and Roessler, “Liberalizing Electoral Outcomes.”
23 Moten, “The Sabah State Elections in Malaysia”; O’Shanassy, “Beyond the Barisan Nasional?”
24 Crouch, Government and Society in Malaysia; Means, “Soft Authoritarianism in Malaysia and Singapore.”
25 Hamayotsu, “Islam and Nation Building in Southeast Asia”; Hassan, “Explaining Islam’s Special Position.”
26 They are Tunku Abdul Rahman, Tun Abdul Razak, Tun Hussein Onn, Tun Mahathir Mohamad, Tun Abdullah Badawi and Najib Tun Razak.
27 Mauzy and Milne, “Malaysian Politics Under Mahathir.”
28 Lee and Tham, “Malaysia Ten Years after the Asian Financial Crisis.”
29 Dhillon, Malaysian Foreign Policy in the Mahathir Era.
30 Slater, “Iron Cage in an Iron Fist.”
31 Singh, “Political Change in Malaysia.”
32 Von der Mehden, “Malaysia in 1990.”
33 Khoo, “The Malaysian General Election of 29 November 1999.”
34 Chin, “Malaysia in 1996.”
35 Chin and Wong, “Malaysia’s Electoral Upheaval,” 73–76.
36 Case, “Malaysia’s General Elections in 1999.”
37 Mohamad, “Malaysia – Democracy and the End of Ethnic Politics?”.
38 Pepinsky, “The 2008 Malaysian Elections.”
39 Abdul Hamid and Ismail, “Islamist Conservatism.”
40 Nor, “Malaysia’s 13th General Election.”
41 Jacques, “Malaysia Election Falls Prey to ‘Gerrymandering’.”
42 Osman, “Salafi Ulama in UMNO.”
43 The Malays constituted around 62% of the voting population, and Malay-majority seats amounted to 132 of 222 seats, according to estimates by the Merdeka Centre, an independent opinion research firm. See Merdeka Centre, “Malaysia General Elections XIV Outlook, Prospects and Outcome”.
44 “Jeff Sessions calls Malaysia’s 1MDB scandal ‘kleptocracy at its worst’.”
45 “Malaysia’s UMNO expels Muhyiddin.”
46 Correspondence with a Malaysian from Negeri Sembilan, 12 April 2018.
47 “Dr M: Harapan will Win Hands Down … ”
48 Chin, “So Close and Yet So Far.”
49 Bellin, “Reconsidering the Robustness of Authoritarianism.”
50 Khoo, Paradoxes of Mahathirism.
51 Chew, “Mahathir poses strongest challenge to PM Najib.” Additionally, from the author’s own experience, this is a widely shared perception amongst many non-Malaysians, especially in the Middle East and places like Bosnia. Mahathir is admired in such areas.
52 Beech and Paddock, “Malaysia Finds an Unlikely Champion of Democracy.”
53 Ghazali, “Siti Hasmah Questioned by Cops.”
54 “Report: 95% Chinese but less than 30% Malays voted for PH.”
55 Correspondence with a voter in Langkawi, 8 May 2018.
56 Bangsat is a derogatory term for poor or powerless; Correspondence with former BN voter who is a Mahathir supporter, 30 January 2018.
57 Tan, “Malaysia GE.”
58 Correspondence with an activist from Amanah, 1 May 2018.
59 Correspondence with an activist from PPBM, 15 June 2018.
60 Schottmann, Mahathir’s Islam.
61 This is a significant point, since Sabah and Sarawak had traditionally been strongholds of BN. In 2013, BN comfortably won contests in the two East Malaysian states, contributing tremendously to its overall victory.
62 “Malaysia’s UMNO expels Muhiyiddin.”
63 Correspondence with Malaysian from Kedah, 12 April 2018.
64 Leong, “Muhiyiddin Banks on 40-Year Ties.”
65 Doolittle, Property and Politics in Sabah.
66 Hwang, Personalized Politics; Wain, Malaysian Maverick.
67 Abdul Hamid and Ismail, “Malaysia’s General Election.”
68 Levitsky and Way, Competitive Authoritarianism.
69 Consider the following quote: “I still do not trust the DAP, but I know Mahathir will take care of the Malays. He has a plan (to keep the DAP in check).” Correspondence with a PH voter, 25 May 2018.
70 Abdullah, “Assessing Party Structures.”
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Walid Jumblatt Abdullah
Walid Jumblatt Abdullah is an Assistant Professor at the Public Policy and Global Affairs Program, Nanyang Technological University. He completed his PhD under the Joint Degree Program between National University of Singapore and King’s College, London. He works on relationships between Islam and the state, political Islam, and political parties and elections.
The author's publications include International Political Science Review, Government and Opposition, Asian Survey, Journal of Church and State, Australian Journal of International Affairs, Indonesia and the Malay World, Japanese Journal of Political Science, Small Wars & Insurgencies, Journal of Muslim Minority Affairs, Asian Studies Review (Forthcoming).