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Research Articles

The rise of the democracy – authoritarianism cleavage and opposition coordination in Turkey (2014–2019)

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Pages 1496-1514 | Received 29 May 2020, Accepted 14 Jul 2020, Published online: 10 Aug 2020
 

ABSTRACT

This article examines the coordination of opposition parties in Turkey between the 2014 presidential and the 2019 local elections. To explain opposition coordination from secular, Turkish nationalist, pro-Kurdish, and Islamist parties, the article points out a rising democracy-authoritarianism cleavage. As Turkey became one of the most pronounced cases of democratic backsliding worldwide, this political cleavage gradually overshadowed historically rooted social cleavages and incentivized the opposition parties to coordinate in the name of fighting for democracy. The article shows that in seven electoral contests, the opposition parties coordinated in the form of nominating joint candidates, encouraging strategic voting, running a unified campaign, helping presidential candidates collect signatures, promising to support each other in the runoff, pledging to form a transitional government, transferring deputies to be on the ballot, nominating members of the smaller opposition parties under a larger party's list, not competing in certain districts against each other, and establishing an official alliance. Thanks to their extensive menu of coordination, the opposition parties challenged the ruling party's predominance, undermined its parliamentary majorities, and won local elections in key cities. The article's causal argument and findings have implications for opposition coordination in authoritarian regimes.

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their valuable suggestions. We are also thankful to Sabri Sayarı, Karabekir Akkoyunlu, Michael Wuthrich, Yunus Sözen, Berk Esen, and Elvin Ong for their comments on various stages of this research. Finally, we would like to acknowledge Vincent Grube's research assistance.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 Lührmann et al., “State of the World 2017.”

2 Moreno, Political Cleavages; Torcal and Mainwaring, “The Political Recrafting”; Deegan-Krause, “New Dimensions of Political Cleavage”; Bustikova and Zechmeister, “Voting in New(er) Democracies.”

3 Sözen, “Competition in a Populist Authoritarian Regime”; Wuthrich and Ingleby, “Running on ‘Radical Love in Turkey’.”

4 Mardin, “Center-Periphery Relations”; Kalaycıoğlu, “Kulturkampf in Turkey.”

5 Yilmaz, Caman, and Bashirov, “How an Islamist Party Managed.”

6 Schedler, Electoral Authoritarianism; Levitsky and Way, Competitive Authoritarianism.

7 Bunce and Wolchik, Defeating Authoritarian Leaders.

8 Corrales and Penfold, Dragon in the Tropics.

9 Ziegfeld and Tudor, “How Opposition Parties Sustain Single-Party Dominance.”

10 Ong, “Opposition Coordination in Singapore's 2015 General Elections.”

11 Boogarts, “Electoral Alliances in Africa.”

12 Ghandi and Ong, “Committed or Conditional Democrats.”

13 Lust-Okar, “Divided They Rule.”

14 Armstrong, Reuter, and Robertson, “Getting the Opposition Together.”

15 Beaulieu and Hyde, “In the Shadow of Democracy Promotion.”

16 Ziegfeld and Tudor, “How Opposition Parties Sustain Single-Party Dominance”; Gandhi and Reuter, “The Incentives for Pre-electoral Coalitions.”

17 Geddes, “What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years?”

18 Wahman, “Opposition Coalitions and Democratization by Election.”

19 Stepan, “On the Tasks of Democratic Opposition.”

20 Cavartorta, “Divided They Stand”; Gandhi and Ong, “Committed or Conditional Democrats?”

21 Hostrup Haugbølle and Cavatorta, “Will the Real Tunisian Opposition Please Stand Up?”

22 Lipset and Rokkan, Party Systems and Voter Alignments.

23 Bermeo, Ordinary People in Extraordinary Times.

24 O’Donnell, Modernization and Bureaucratic-Authoritarianism.

25 Huber and Inglehart, “Expert Interpretations of Party Space.”

26 Moreno, Political Cleavages.

27 Deegan-Krause, “New Dimensions of Political Cleavage”; Baeg Im, “Faltering Democratic Consolidation.”

28 Bustikova and Zechmeister, “Voting in New(er) Democracies.”

29 Torcal and Mainwaring, “The Political Recrafting”; Scully, “A Fourth Critical Juncture?”

30 Bonilla et al., “Social or Political Cleavages?”

31 Wuthrich, National Elections in Turkey.

32 Taşpınar, Kurdish Nationalism and Political Islam in Turkey.

33 Bechev, Turkey's Illiberal Turn; Taş, “Turkey-From Tutelary to Delegative Democracy.”

34 Esen and Gumuscu, “Rising Competitive Authoritarianism in Turkey.”

35 Selçuk and Arrarás, “Autogolpe en Turquía.”

36 Freedom House. “Freedom in the World 2018.” 2018. https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/democracy-crisis.; Lührmann et al., “State of the World 2017.”

37 Öktem ve Akkoyunlu, “Exit from Democracy.”

38 Kalaycıoğlu, “Turkish Popular Presidential Elections.”

39 BBC Türkçe. “CHP ve MHP’nin çatı adayı: Ekmeleddin İhsanoğlu.” 2014. https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler/2014/06/140616_catiaday_ihsanoglu_.

40 Öniş, “Turkey's Two Elections: The AKP Comes Back.”

41 HDP. “Demirtaş: Erdoğan seni Başkan yaptırmayacağız.” 2015. https://www.hdp.org.tr/tr/demirtas-erdogan-seni-baskan-yaptirmayacagiz/5981.

42 Hamsici, Mahmut. “CHP seçmeni HDP’ye ‘emanet oy’ vermeye nasıl bakıyor?” 2017. https://www.bbc.com/turkce/haberler/2015/06/150601_chp_hdp_secim_gs2015.

43 Cumhuriyet. “Kılıçdaroğlu: Bir dönem kapandı, demokrasi kazandı.” 2015. https://www.cumhuriyet.com.tr/haber/kilicdaroglu-bir-donem-kapandi-demokrasi-kazandi-294073.

44 Öniş, “Turkey's Two Elections.”

45 Selçuk and Arrarás, “Autogolpe.”

46 As the MHP developed closer relationship with the AKP, a group of dissidents within the party challenged Bahçeli's leadership. The dissidents would later establish the Good Party (IYIP).

47 Esen and Gümüşcü, “A Small Yes for Presidentialism.”

48 NTV. “CHP’nin referandum sloganı ve logosu belli oldu.” 2017. https://www.ntv.com.tr/turkiye/chp-gelecegim-icin-hayir-diyecek,9ifIIkqmzkOz6aNJH07lcw.

49 CNN Türk. “HDP’nin referandum sloganı belli oldu.” 2017. https://www.cnnturk.com/turkiye/hdpnin-referandum-slogani-belli-oldu.

50 Girit, Selin. “Turkey Referendum: The Ultranationalists Who Could Sway Erdogan Vote.” 2017. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39412077.

51 Sözen, “Competition.”

52 Taş, “Contained Uncertainty.”

53 Milliyet. “‘Cumhur İttifakı’ Protokolü’nün tam metni.” 2018. https://www.milliyet.com.tr/siyaset/cumhur-ittifaki-protokolu-nun-tam-metni-2662293.

54 The Democratic Party is a small center-right party. Ideologically, it is hardly distinguishable from IYIP.

55 CNN Türk. “‘Millet İttifakı’ protokolü YSK’ya sunuldu.” 2018. https://www.cnnturk.com/turkiye/millet-ittifaki-protokolu-yskya-sunuldu.

56 Initially, the CHP wanted to nominate a joint opposition candidate. After a brief period of speculations around former President Gül's candidacy, this idea was shelved.

57 Akşener and Karamollaoğlu qualified to be a presidential candidate after collecting one hundred thousand signatures from voters. During the signature collection process, the CHP supported both opposition leaders’ candidacy. See Diken. “Cumhurbaşkanı adayları için imza süreci başladı: ‘Akşener garantiledi’.” 2018. http://www.diken.com.tr/cumhurbaskani-adaylari-icin-imza-sureci-basladi-aksener-garantiledi/.

58 T24. “Karamollaoğlu: Diktatörlük lafını kullanmak istemiyorum ama … ” 2018. https://t24.com.tr/haber/karamollaoglu-diktatorluk-lafini-kullanmak-istemiyorum-ama,635965.

59 Temel Karamollaoğlu, (@T_Karamollaoglu), May 3, 2018.

60 T24. “HDP: İkinci tura İnce kalırsa İnce’ye, Akşener kalırsa Akşener’e oy vereceğiz.” 2018. https://t24.com.tr/haber/hdp-ikinci-tura-ince-kalirsa-inceye-aksener-kalirsa-aksenere-oy-verecegiz,653860.

61 The survey was conducted by KONDA with a nationally representative sample of 2581 respondents.

63 Gazete Duvar. “Ekrem İmamoğlu: Demokrasi mücadelesi vereceğim.” 2019. https://www.gazeteduvar.com.tr/politika/2019/06/05/ekrem-imamoglu-demokrasi-mucadelesi-verecegim/.

64 Selahattin Demirtaş (@hdpdemirtas), June 18, 2019.

65 Selahattin Demirtaş (@hdpdemirtas), July 8, 2020.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Orçun Selçuk

Orçun Selçuk is a visiting assistant professor at Luther College. Selçuk holds a Political Science Ph.D. from Florida International University. His research interests include populism, personalization, opposition parties, polarization, and democratization. Building on his dissertation, Selçuk is currently working on a book manuscript that analyses polarizing populism in Turkey, Venezuela, and Ecuador.

Dilara Hekimci

Dilara Hekimci is a political science Ph.D. student and a graduate teaching assistant at Florida International University. In addition to her studies in the United States, she received her Ph.D. from Bahçeşehir University in Turkey. Her research interests are political parties, populism, and de-democratization in developing countries. She is currently writing her dissertation on the opposition parties’ strategies to counter populism in Turkey and Hungary.

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