https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8317-0317
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ABSTRACT
Recent scholarship on the institutionalization of politics in Africa has highlighted the consolidation of constitutional leadership turnover in electoral democracies. However, leadership turnover is not limited to democracies, and is increasingly also regularized in a subset of non-democratic regimes ruled by dominant parties. Why have some dominant ruling parties in Africa been able to facilitate leadership turnover while others have not? With evidence from a detailed case study of Ethiopia’s leadership transitions, we argue that the historical persistence of ideology and its institutional expressions are important drivers of dominant parties’ ability to manage leadership turnover. In Ethiopia, the ideology of ethno-national self-determination (forged in the 1960s) influenced political development for decades, culminating in the adoption of constitutional ethnic federalism and the creation of a ruling party alliance comprised of ethno-national parties. This institutional backdrop defined the contours of transitions in 2012 and 2018. It also explains contestations over the nature of federalism in Ethiopia, including the outbreak of conflict in Tigray in 2020. In addition to highlighting the role of ideology in African politics, this paper brings a comparative perspective to the study of Ethiopia, a country that is often studied in isolation.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 See Kokkonen and Sundell, “Delivering Stability”; Frantz and Stein, “Countering Coups”; Meng, “Ruling Parties in Authoritarian Regimes.”
2 O’Donnell and Schmitter, Transitions From Authoritarian Rule.
3 Bienen and van de Walle, “Ethnicity and Leadership Turnover.”
4 “Ethiopia PM Hailemarian Desalegn in surprise resignation,” BBC News, February 15, 2018. Accessed on February 22, 2019: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-43073285
5 The Oromo Liberation Front was the initial representative of the Oromiya region in the EPRDF coalition, but later fell out with TPLF.
6 Keller, “Revolution, Class and the National Question”; Young, “Ethnicity and Power”; Clapham, “Post-War Ethiopia”; Zewde, The Ques; Lyons, The Puzzle.
7 Zeleke, Ethiopia in Theory.,
8 Brietzke, “Ethiopia’s ‘Leap”; Aalen, “The Revolutionary Democracy”; Abbink, “Ethnic-based Federalism”; Kefale, “Ethnic-based Federalism”; Federalism and Ethnic Conflict; Khisa, “Politics of Exclusion.”
9 See contributions in Cheeseman (ed), Institutions and Democracy.
10 Gyimah-Boadi, “Civil Society”; Bratton and van de Walle, Democratic Experiments; LeBas, From Protests; Dulani, Personal Rule; Posner and Young, “Term Limits.”
11 Gandhi, Political Institutions.
12 Roessler, “The Enemy Within.”
13 Blaydes, Elections and Distributive Politics; Opalo, Legislative Development.
14 Gandhi and Przeworski, “Authoritarian Institutions.”
15 See Meng, Constraining Dictatorship.
16 Kokkonen and Sundell, “Delivering Stability”; Frantz and Stein, “Countering Coups.”
17 Angola’s João Laurenço prosecuted family members of former president José Eduardo dos Santos. In Botswana, President Mokgweetsi Masisi prosecuted two of Ian Khama’s allies. Similarly, in Mozambique, President Filipe Nyusi prosecuted his predecessor’s finance minister. These examples illustrate the risk of leadership turnovers to dominant elite factions.
18 Mwenda and Tangri, “President Museveni”
19 Dulani, Personal Rule.
20 Englebert, “Aspirations and Realities.”
21 Arthur, “On Learning and Adaptation.”
22 Other mechanisms may include factors like established tradition and political culture.
23 Denzau and North, “Shared Mental Models.”
24 Jose, Federico, and Napier, “Political Ideology.”
25 Adams, Political Ideology Today.
26 See Cheeseman (ed), institutions and Democracy.
27 Examples include ruling parties in Botswana, Angola, Mozambique, and Tanzania.
28 Lauth, “Formal and Informal Institutions.”
29 Lyons, The Puzzle, 76.
30 See Samatar, “Ethiopian Federalism” and Arriola, “Protesting and Policing.”
31 Zeleke, Ethiopia in Theory, 143.
32 Balvsvik, “Ethiopia’s ‘Leap in the Dark.’”
33 Aalen, “The Revolution Democracy.”
34 Lyons, The Puzzle, 81.
35 Aalen, The Politics of Ethnicity.
36 Keller, “Revolution, Class and the National Question.”
37 Woldense, “The Ruler’s Game.”
38 Clapham, “The Ethiopian Coup d'Etat.”
39 Vaughan, “Revolutionary Democratic State-Building.”
40 Zewde, The Quest; Abbink, “The Ethiopian Revolution.”
41 Klineberg and Zavalloni, Nationalism and Tribalism.
42 Mekonnen, “On the Question of Nationalities.”
43 Connor, The National Question.
44 Johnson and Johnson, “Eritrea: The National Question”; Selassie, “Self-Determination”; Zewde, The Quest.
45 Shehim, “Ethiopia, Revolution, and the Question of Nationalities”; Pateman, “Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite”; Iyob, The Eritrean Struggle.
46 Zeleke, Ethiopia in Theory, 139–42.
47 Young, Peasant Revolution in Ethiopia.
48 Zeleke, Ethiopia in Theory.
49 Lemma, “The Ethiopian Student Movement”; Young, Peasant Revolution; Berhe, “The Origins”
50 As Zeleke (2019) shows, the idea of ethno-national self-determination is contested.
51 Zeleke, Ethiopia in Theory, 19.
52 All powers not expressly assigned to the federal government in Article 51 of the constitution are reserved to the states.
53 The Puzzle, 81.
54 Clapham, “Post-War Ethiopia,” 182.
55 Meles Zenawi is reported to have claimed that “[w]e cannot ignore that Ethiopia is a diverse country. Previous attempts to do that [hyper-centralization] have led to wars, to fueling nationalistic tendencies” (Lyons 1996, p. 124).
56 Smith, Making Citizens.
57 Keller and Smith, “Obstacles.”
58 Smith, “Explaining Violence”; Lefort, “Powers – mengist – and peasant.”
59 Vaughan, “Revolutionary Democratic State-Building”; Arriola, “Protesting and Policing.”
60 This is consistent with the idea that regimes increase access to governance rents – via cabinet appointments – when faced by challenges to their legitimacy (Arriola 2009).
61 Vaughan, “Revolutionary Democratic State-Building,” 629–634.
62 Ibid.
63 United Nations Development Program, Ethiopia’s Progress Towards Eradicating Poverty, April 6, 2018.
64 Dianna Games, “Ethiopia Gambles of Cheap Labour,” African Business, July 12, 2019.
65 Clapham, Transformation and Continuity.
66 Lyons, The Puzzle of Ethiopian Politics.
67 Lyons, Ibid.
68 Tronvoll, “The Ethiopia 2010 Federal and Regional Elections.”
69 Tronvoll and Hagmann. Contested Power.
70 Aaran Maasho, “Austere Meles Divided Ethiopians,” Reuters, August 21, 2012. Available here: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ethiopia-meles-portrait/austere-meles-divided-ethiopians-idUSBRE87K0VK20120821
71 Interview with Hailemariam Dessalegn, Africa Confidential, January 2011.
72 The Puzzle of Ethiopian Politics, 94.
73 Aalen, “The Revolutionary Democracy,” 11–12
74 David Pilling, “Ethiopian ethnic rivalries threaten Abiy Ahmed’s reform agenda,” Financial Times, March 27, 2019; crucially, we are not addressing the personal qualifications of Abiy here or the decisions he had made post-transition, but focused on the EPRDF party decision-making process.
75 “Managing Ethiopia’s Unsettled Transition,” International Crisis Group, Africa Report No. 269, (2019) p. 24.
76 Morse, How Autocrats Compete.
77 Aalen and Trovoll, “The 2008 Ethiopian Local Elections”; Emmenegger, Keno and Hagmann, “Decentralization to the household.”
78 Tegenu, “Urbanization in Ethiopia.”
79 Abiy quoted in Fisher and Gebrewahd, “‘Game over’?” 205.
80 “Why is ethnic violence surging in Ethiopia?” Al Jazeera, April 19, 2021.
81 Human Rights Watch Ethiopia 2021.
82 The Puzzle of Ethiopian Politics.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Ken Ochieng’ Opalo
Ken Ochieng' Opalo is an Assistant Professor in the Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. His research interests include legislative institutions, political economy of development, devolution and subnational government, social protection, and the politics of education reform. He is the author of Legislative Development in Africa: Politics and Postcolonial Legacies (Cambridge University Press, 2019).
Lahra Smith
Lahra Smith is an Associate Professor in the Walsh School of Foreign Service and the Department of Government at Georgetown University and the Director of the African Studies Program. She is a Political Scientist with a particular interest in citizenship, migration and political development in Africa. She is the author of Making Citizens in Africa: Ethnicity, Gender and National Identity in Ethiopia (Cambridge University Press, 2013). Her other publications focus on the role of political institutions in addressing conflict based largely on ethnic and language identities.