More Business as Usual? The Obama Administration and the Nuclear Posture Review

Abstract

This article examines the preparation of the US Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) by the Obama Administration. In doing so it seeks to answer a puzzle: why is there such a gap between the vision of a ‘world free of nuclear weapons’ set out by President Obama in his Prague speech of 2009 and the significantly more modest outcomes of the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review? The question is answered by employing the Bureaucratic Politics Paradigm developed by Graham Allison and Morton Halperin. It is argued that the answer lies in the fierce bureaucratic battles that are playing out within the administration, with both routine decision making and the outcomes of political games affecting the eventual NPR.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The author would like to thank John Townsend for his research assistance with this article.

Notes

Graham T. Allison, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (Boston, MA: Little, Brown and Company, 1971).

Robert J. Art, ‘Bureaucratic Politics and American Foreign Policy: A Critique’, Policy Sciences, Vol. 4, No. 4 (1973), pp.467–90; Jerel A. Rosati, ‘Developing a Systematic Decision-Making Framework: Bureaucratic Politics in Perspective’, World Politics, Vol. 33, No. 2 (1981), pp.234–52. See Jonathan Bendor and Thomas H. Hammond, ‘Rethinking Allison's Models’, American Political Science Review, Vol. 86, No. 2 (June 1992), pp.301–22; David A. Welch, ‘The Organizational Process and Bureaucratic Politics Paradigms: Retrospect and Prospect’, International Security, Vol. 17, No. 2 (Autumn 1992), pp.112–46. For a trenchant critique of Allison's work see: Stephen D. Krasner, ‘Are Bureaucracies Important? (Or Allison in Wonderland)’, Foreign Policy, No. 7 (Summer 1972), pp.159–72.

Graham T. Allison and Morton M. Halperin, ‘Bureaucratic Politics: A Paradigm and Some Policy Implications’, in Raymond Tanter and Richard H. Ullman (eds), Theory and Practice in International Relations (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1972), pp.40–80.

Ibid., pp.54–5.

Ibid., p.47.

Ibid., Section II, p.57.

Richard Neustadt, Presidential Power (New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1960), p.8

The Cooperative Proliferation Detection, Interdiction Assistance, and Conventional Threat Reduction Act of 2006, S.2566, 109th Congress, 2005–2006.

Ivo Daalder and Jan Lodal, ‘The Logic of Zero: Towards a World Without Nuclear Weapons’, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 86, No. 6 (November and December 2008); Frank Procida and Peter Huessy, ‘Unclear Nuclear Logic?’, Letter to the Editor, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 88, No. 2 (March and April 2009), at: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64662/frank-procida-peter-huessy/unclear-nuclear-logic

Laura Rozen, ‘Transition Purgatory, Part II: The National Security Council’, Foreign Policy Magazine, 6 January 2010, at: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:8gKDxZBktQQJ:thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/01/06/transition_purgatory_part_ii_the_national_security_council+ivo%2Bdaalder&cd=10&hl=en&ct=clnk

In particular, Senator Bill Richardson had made proliferation and arms control central planks of his campaign.

Barack Obama, ‘Renewing American Leadership’, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 86, No. 4 (July and August 2007), pp.2–16.

This may have reflected a tactical choice in not wanting to hand his (Democratic and Republican) opponents ‘ammunition’ for charges that he was going to neglect US defence. Indeed, there were attempts in the media to portray candidate Obama as likely to neglect the nuclear deterrent, but they were not very successful. See, for example, Peter Huessy, ‘Playing Games in U.S. Security’, The Washington Times, 3 July 2008, at: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/jul/3/playing-games-with-us-security/. A rebuttal came in John Holum, ‘Nuclear Weapons’, The Washington Times, 1 August 2010, at: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/aug/01/nuclear-weapons/

Obama campaign website http://www.barackobama.com/issues/foreignpolicy/#nuclear August 2007, cited in ‘2008 Presidential Candidate Quotes’, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, at: http://www.wagingpeace.org/menu/resources/surveys/2008_pres_cand/cand_quotes_page.php

‘2008 Presidential Candidate Quotes’, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, at: http://www.wagingpeace.org/menu/resources/surveys/2008_pres_cand/cand_quotes_page.php

Jason Horowitz, ‘Obama Speechwriter Ben Rhodes is Penning a Different Script for the World Stage’, Washington Post, 12 January 2010, p.C01, at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/11/AR2010011103758.html

Ibid.

Barack Obama, Remarks of President Barack Obama, Hradčany Square, Prague, Czech Republic, April 5, 2009 (Prague: Embassy of the United States in Prague, 2009), at: http://prague.usembassy.gov/obama.html

Ibid.

Ibid.

Ibid.

Office of the Press Secretary, Press Briefing by Ben Rhodes, Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications; Gary Samore, Senior White House Coordinator for WMD Counterterorrism and Arms Control; and Laura Holgate, Senior Director for WMD Terrorism and Threat Reduction (Washington, DC: Office of the Press Secretary, 13 April 2010), at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/press-briefing-ben-rhodes-deputy-national-security-advisor-strategic-communications

Laura Rozen, ‘Names: Obama Taps Gottemoller on Nonproliferation’, Foreign Policy Magazine, 13 March 2009, at http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/03/17/names_obama_taps_gottemoeller_ on_nonproliferation

Floor Statement by Senator John McCain, ‘A World Without Nuclear Weapons’, Nuclear Security Project, 3 June 2009, at: http://www.nuclearsecurityproject.org/atf/cf/%7B1fce2821-c31c-4560-bec1-bb4bb58b54d9%7D/MCCAIN_FLOOR_STATEMENT_06%2003%2009.PDF

‘GOP Senators Likely to Approve “New START”, Pentagon Official Says’, Global Security Newswire, 7 June 2010, at: http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20100607_8084.php

Max Kampelman, ‘Bombs Away,’ New York Times, 24 April 2006.

Todd Fine, ‘Using the Reagan Arms Control Legacy Correctly’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 10 June 2009, at: http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/op-eds/using-the-reagan-arms-control-legacy-correctly

George P. Shultz, William J. Perry, Henry A. Kissinger, and Sam Nunn, ‘A World Free of Nuclear Weapons,’ Wall Street Journal, 4 January 2007, at: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB116787515251566636.html

Adam B. Lowther, ‘Learning to Love the Bomb’, Boston Globe, 18 March 2009, at: http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2009/03/18/learning_to_love_the_bomb/; Sarah J. Diehl, ‘Four Statesmen Promote Revitalized Interest in Nuclear Disarmament Efforts’, WMD Insights: Issues and Viewpoints in the International Media, October 2008, at: http://www.wmdinsights.com/I27/I27_G1_Kissinger.htm

Mikhail Gorbachev, ‘The Nuclear Threat,’ Wall Street Journal, 31 January 2007, at: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB117021711101593402.html; Margaret Beckett, Secretary of State for the Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, United Kingdom, ‘Luncheon Keynote: A World Free of Nuclear Weapons?’, Carnegie International Nonproliferation Conference, Washington, DC, 25 June 2007, at: http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/keynote.pdf; Douglas Hurd, Malcom Rifkind, David Owen, and George Robertson, ‘Start Worrying and Learn to Ditch the Bomb’, The Times, 30 June 2008, at: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/article4237387.ece

‘Shultz, Kissinger, Perry, Nunn, and Others Call for Freeing the World of Nuclear Weapons at Hoover Institution Reykjavik II Conference’, Hoover Institution, 26 October 2007, at: http://www.hoover.org/pubaffairs/whatsnew/10828751.html; George P. Shultz, William J Perry, Henry A. Kissinger, and Sam Nunn, ‘Toward A Nuclear Free World’, Wall Street Journal, 15 January 2008, at: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120036422673589947.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries

The Nuclear Security Project, http://www.nuclearsecurityproject.org/site/c.mjJXJbMMIoE/b.3534665/k.5828/About_the_Project_Index.htm

Shultz, Perry, Kissinger, and Nunn, ‘A World Free of Nuclear Weapons’ (NOTE 28).

Barack Obama, Remarks by the President After Meeting With Former Secretary of State George Shultz, Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, Former Senator and Chairman of the Armed Services Committee Sam Nunn and Former Secretary of Defense William Perry to Discuss Key Priorities in U.S. Non-Proliferation Policy (Washington, DC: Office of the Press Secretary, 19 May 2009), at: http://www.nuclearsecurityproject.org/atf/cf/%7B1fce2821-c31c-4560-bec1-bb4bb58b54d9%7D/WHITE_HOUSE_PRESS_RELEASE51909.PDF

‘Statement by George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger, and Sam Nunn on START Follow-On Treaty,’ Nuclear Security Project, 26 March 2010, at: http://www.nti.org/c_press/Statement_by_Four_on_START_Follow_On_032610.pdf

Kennette Benedict, ‘Disarmament, Arms Control, and Non-Proliferation: A View From the Funding Community’, Bulletin of the International Network of Engineers and Scientists Against Proliferation (January 2004), at: http://www.macfound.org/site/apps/nlnet/content2.aspx?c=lkLXJ8MQKrH&b=4294207&ct=1270219

‘Arms Control Advocacy Collaborative’, Kirsch Foundation, at: http://www.kirschfoundation.org/care/ac2.html

‘Past Nuclear Disarmament Outcomes’, Kirsch Foundation, at: http://www.kirschfoundation.org/done/out_nuc.html

‘About Us’, The Connect US Fund, at: http://www.connectusfund.org/about

Ibid.

For example, Bonnie Jenkins joined the Ford Foundation (and re-opened up funding for arms control NGOs), and Amy Gordon joined the MacArthur Foundation. Both had previously worked in the (now defunct) US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency. This trend of gaining arms control expertise accelerated when Joseph Cirincione became President of the Ploughshares Fund in 2008. He has a strong track record on nuclear issues and is ‘tasked with leading the organization's expansion and elevating its profile and policy impact’. ‘Our History’, The Ploughshares Fund, at: http://www.ploughshares.org/about-us/our-history. Moreover, Robert Gallucci became President of the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation in April 2009. Gallucci had worked on arms control issues for the Clinton Administration.

‘NTI in Action’, Nuclear Threat Initiative, at: http://www.nti.org/b_aboutnti/b7_events.html

Lukas Haynes, ‘Foundations Can Play a Role in International Peace and Security – If they Have Patience and Imagination’, Chronicle of Philanthropy, 12 April 2010, at: http://philanthropy.com/article/Foundations-Can-Play-a-Role/65040/

‘Obama Wins 2009 Nobel Peace Prize’, BBC News, 9 October 2009, at: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8298580.stm

For a more extensive list see: ‘New Members of the Obama Administration’, Arms Control Association, 7 May 2009, at: http://www.armscontrol.org/new_administration_members

Hillary Clinton, ‘2008 Presidential Candidates’ Responses to Seven Key National Security Questions from a Council for a Livable World Survey', Waging Peace, 16 August 2007, at: http://www.wagingpeace.org/menu/resources/surveys/2008_pres_cand/cand_quotes_page.php

Hilary Clinton, Remarks by Secretary Clinton at the United States Institute of Peace (Washington, DC: US Department of State, 21 October 2009), at: http://www.america.gov/st/texttrans-english/2009/October/20091021180508ihecuor0.8690541.html

Larua Rozen, ‘WMD Czar Gary Samore’, Foreign Policy Magazine, 23 January 2009, at: http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/01/23/gary_samore_wmd_czar

Laura Rozen, ‘Russia Downgraded, Daalder to Nato?’, Foreign Policy Magazine, 9 January 2009, at: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:P3FpKwzJfTkJ:thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2009/01/09/russia_downgraded_daalder_to_nato+ivo%2Bdaalder&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk

Nathan Hodge, ‘Gates on Nuclear Disarmament: Not so Fast’, Wired Magazine, 4 May 2009, at: http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/05/gates-on-nuclear-disarmament-no-so-fast/

Ibid.

Nathan Hodge, ‘Nuke Abolitionists vs. “Modernizers” in WMD Smackdown’, Wired Magazine, 18 March 2009, at: http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2009/03/nuclear-aboliti/; Lowther, ‘Learning to Love the Bomb’ (note 29).

Janne E. Nolan and James R. Holmes, ‘The Bureaucracy of Deterrence’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 64, No. 1 (March and April 2008) pp.40–3, pp. 55–8.

Tara McKelvey, ‘A New Start: Prospects for Obama's ‘Global Zero’', Boston Review, May and June 2010, at: http://bostonreview.net/BR35.3/mckelvey.php

Jon Kyl, ‘The New Start Treaty: Time for a Careful Look’, Wall Street Journal, 8 July, 2010, at: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704293604575343360850107760.html

For a good overview of these reports see, Anya Loukianova, ‘The Nuclear Posture Review Debate’, NTI Issue Brief, 19 August 2009, at: http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_nuclear_posture_review_debate.html

William J. Perry and James R. Schlesinger, America's Strategic Posture: The Final Report of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States (Washington, DC: USIP, 6 May 2009), at: http://www.usip.org/files/America's_Strategic_Posture_Auth_Ed.pdf

See for example, John Bolton, ‘Obama's Next Three Years’, Commentary Magazine, January 2010, at: http://www.commentarymagazine.com/viewarticle.cfm/obama-s-next-three-years-15314?mode=reserve

Heritage Action for America, Grassroots Activists Promoting Conservative Policies (Heritage Action for America), at: http://heritageforamerica.org/?src=www.soderstrome.com

US Department of Defense, The Nuclear Posture Review (Washington, DC: Department of Defense, 1995), at: http://www.dod.mil/execsec/adr95/npr_.html

John Isaacs, ‘Commitment to Nuclear Non-Proliferation: New Directions under the Obama Administration’, prepared remarks delivered to the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs, 1 December 2009, at: http://www.armscontrolcenter.org/policy/nuclearweapons/articles/120409_nonproliferation_new_under_obama/

Andrew St. Denis, ‘2010 Nuclear Scholars Initiative: Project on Nuclear Issues’, CSIS, 3 February 2010, at: http://csis.org/blog/2010-nuclear-scholars-initiative-npr-edition

Mark Ambidner, ‘Why the Nuclear Review is Delayed’, The Atlantic, 26 February 2010, at: http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2010/02/why-the-nuclear-review-is-delayed/36660/

St. Denis, ‘2010 Nuclear Scholars Initiative’(note 61).

Anya Loukianova, ‘The Nuclear Posture Review Debate’ (note 56).

Ron Rosenbaum, ‘Will the Pentagon Thwart Obama's Dream of Zero’, Slate Magazine, 21 August 2009, at: http://www.slate.com/id/2225817

Office of the Press Secretary, Joint Understanding (Washington, DC: Office of the Press Secretary, 8 July 2009), at: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/The-Joint-Understanding-for-The-START-Follow-On-Treaty/

Thomas Kristensen, ‘START Follow-On: What SORT of Agreement?’, Federation of American Scientists, FAS Strategic Security Blog, 8 July 2009, at: http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/07/start.php

Greg Mello, ‘The Obama Disarmament Paradox’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 4 February 2010, at: http://www.thebulletin.org/web-edition/op-eds/the-obama-disarmament-paradox

Mary Beth Sheridan and Walter Pincus, ‘Obama Must Decide Degree to which U.S. Swears off Nuclear Weapons’, Washington Post, 6 March 2010, at: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/03/05/AR2010030502260.html

Peter Beaumont, ‘Barack Obama Orders New Nuclear Review amid Growing Feud’, The Observer, 28 February 2010, at: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/feb/28/barack-obama-nuclear-review

Laura Rozen, ‘Revisiting Biden's Nuclear Speech’, Politico, 22 February 2010, at: http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/0210/Revisiting_Bidens_nuclear_speech.html

Laura Rozen, ‘Revisiting Biden's Nuclear Speech’, Politico, 22 February 2010, at: http://www.politico.com/blogs/laurarozen/0210/Revisiting_Bidens_nuclear_speech.html

Beaumont, ‘Barack Obama Orders New Nuclear Review amid Growing Feud’ (note 71); Elaine M. Grossman, ‘U.S. Nuclear Posture Review Delayed Until March’, Global Security Newswire, 6 January 2010, at: http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20100106_9016.php

‘Obama Curbs U.S. Nuclear Weapons Development, Usage Policy’, Global Security Newswire, 6 April 2010, at: http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20100406_4937.php

David E. Sanger and Peter Baker, ‘Obama Limits When U.S. Would Use Nuclear Arms’, New York Times, 5 April 2010, at: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/06/world/06arms.html?pagewanted=all

Clinton, Remarks by Secretary Clinton at the United States Institute of Peace (note 47).

US Department of Defense, Nuclear Posture Review Report (Washington, DC: Department of Defense, April 2010), p.2, at: http://www.defense.gov/npr/docs/2010%20Nuclear%20Posture%20Review%20Report.pdf

US Department of Defense, ‘2010 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) Fact Sheet’, 6 April 2010, at: http://www.defense.gov/npr/docs/NPR%20FACT%20SHEET%20April%202010.pdf

See, in particular, US Department of Defense, ‘Executive Summary’, in US Department of Defense, Nuclear Posture Review Report (note 78), pp.iii–xvi, at: http://www.defense.gov/npr/docs/2010%20Nuclear%20Posture%20Review%20Report.pdf

Walter Shapiro, ‘The Peacemaker with 1,550 Nukes’, Politics Daily, 7 April 2010, at: http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/04/07/obama-the-peacemaker-the-president-with-1-550-nukes/

Paul Meyer, ‘Prague One Year Later: From Words to Deeds?’, Arms Control Today, May 2010, at: http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2010_05/LookingBack

John Bolton, ‘Folding Our Nuclear Umbrella’, Washington Times, 28 April 2010, at http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/apr/28/folding-our-nuclear-umbrella/

‘President Obama's Nuclear Weapons Strategy: Reviewing the New START Treaty and Nuclear Posture Review’, The Cato Institute's Nuclear Proliferation Update, May 2010, at: http://www.cato.org/pubs/npu/npu_may2010.pdf

Beaumont, ‘Barack Obama Orders New Nuclear Review Amid Growing Feud’ (note 71).

Elaine M. Grossman, ‘Debate Heats up over Conventional, Nuclear Deterrence Tradeoffs’, Global Security Newswire, 19 March 2010, at: http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20100319_6793.php

Department of Defense, Department of Defense Bloggers Roundtable with Bradley H. Roberts et al., April 6 2010 (Washington, DC: Federal News Service, 2010), at: http://www.defense.gov/Blog_files/Blog_assets/20100406_NPR_transcript.pdf

Mark Ambidner, ‘Why the Nuclear Review is Delayed’, The Atlantic, 26 February 2010, at: http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2010/02/why-the-nuclear-review-is-delayed/36660/

Elaine M. Grossman, ‘Pentagon Expects Years of Study before Making Changes to U.S. Nuclear War Plans’, Global Security Newswire, 8 April 2010, at: http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20100408_1924.php

Michael Bruno, ‘StratCom Chief Talks Cyber, Nuclear’, AviationWeek.Com, 18 May 2009, at: http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=defense&id=news/STRATCOM031809.xml&headline=StratCom%20Chief%20Talks%20Cyber,%20Nuclear

The Mitre Corporation, Lifetime Extension Program (LEP) Executive Summary, JSR-09-334E (McLean, VA: The MITRE Corporation, 2009), p.2: at: http://www.armscontrol.org/system/files/JASON%20LEP%20REPORT%20SUMMARY%2009-09.pdf

George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger, and Sam Nunn, ‘How to Protect Our Nuclear Deterrent’, The Wall Street Journal, 19 January 2010, at: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704152804574628344282735008.html

See Jonathan Bendor and Thomas H. Hammond, ‘Rethinking Allison's Models’, American Political Science Review, Vol. 86, No. 2 (June 1992), especially pp.315–6; Krasner, ‘Are Bureaucracies Important?’ (note 2), pp.167–9.

Quoted in: ‘Obama Intervened Frequently in Arms Control Talks’, Global Security Newswire, 29 March 2010, at: http://www.globalsecuritynewswire.org/gsn/nw_20100329_1928.php

Beaumont, ‘Barack Obama Orders New Nuclear Review amid Growing Feud’ (note 71).

Paul Richter, ‘Obama's Nuclear-Free Vision Mired in Debate’, Los Angeles Times, 4 January 2010, at: http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jan/04/nation/la-na-obama-nuclear4-2010jan04/2