The continuing resonance of the war as risk management perspective for understanding military interventions

ABSTRACT

In the late 1990s and 2000s, a slew of books and journal articles proposed that a nexus between risk management and warfare was emerging. This article argues that risk management ideas continue to shape recent campaigns against Libya, Islamic State, Syria, and the war on terror from Niger, Yemen to Somalia. It uses existing literature on risk and warfare to examine four key aspects of contemporary interventions. First, the article evaluates the overall strategic context as security concerns shift from terrorism toward renewed great power competition. Second, it re-assesses the risk calculus for military action through the language and grammar of risk invoked by politicians. Third and fourth, it addresses the continuing reliance on air power and the managerial ethos of military operations as important features of war as risk management.

KEYWORDS:

• Risk management
• transformation of warfare
• risk calculus

Acknowledgements

The author thanks the editor and three anonymous referees for their insightful suggestions on earlier drafts. This article builds on his previously published works including War as Risk Management (Routledge 2006) and “Unravelling the ‘war’ on terrorism: A ‘risk-management’ exercise in ‘war’ clothing?”. Security Dialogue, 33, 2002, 227–242.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes on contributor

Yee-Kuang Heng is a professor at the Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Tokyo. Heng holds a PhD in International Relations from the London School of Economics and Political Science. He previously held faculty positions at Trinity College Dublin, Ireland; University of St Andrews, United Kingdom; and National University of Singapore. His research interests lie at the intersection between risk and the transformation of warfare. Published work comprises peer-reviewed articles in Security Dialogue, Survival, Review of International Studies, and Journal of Strategic Studies. His most recent book is Managing Global Risks in the Urban Age: Singapore and the making of a Global City (Routledge, 2016).