Arming Libya: Transfers of Conventional Weapons Past and Present

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The author would like to thank Anna Khakee and Aaron Karp, as well as the four anonymous reviewers for most helpful comments on earlier versions of this article.

Notes

The SIPRI Arms Transfer Database contains data on actual deliveries of major conventional weapons. Values are expressed in constant (1990) prices. The database is available at http://www.sipri.org/contents/armstrad/at_db.html

Calculated on the basis of SIPRI Arms Transfer Database, ibid.

Quoted in Helen Chapin Metz (ed.), Libya (Washington, DC: Kessinger, 2004), p. 280.

The UK had a garrison at Tobruk and an airfield at El Adem, while the US controlled Wheelus Air base just east of Tripoli, which at the time was the largest US air base abroad.

All figures calculated on the basis of SIPRI Arms Transfer Database (note 1).

William J. Foltz, ‘Libya's Military Power’, in René Lemarchand (ed.), The Green and the Black. Qadhafi's Policies in Africa (Bloomington and Indianapolis, IN: Indiana University Press, 1988), p. 35.

Ronald Bruce St. John, Qaddafi's World Design: Libyan Foreign Policy, 1969–1987 (London: Saqi Books, 1987), pp. 72–4.

US Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Intelligence, ‘Intelligence Memorandum: Libyan Arms Supplies since the 1969 Revolution’, 31 July 1970, No. 0531/70 (declassified 6 September 2007), p. 6.

Ronald Bruce St. John, Libya. From Colony to Independence (Oxford: Oneworld, 2008), pp. 178–9.

Libya ranked ahead of Syria (17 billion), India (13 billion) and Iraq (12 billion) (figures from SIRPI Arms Transfer Database, note 1).

SIPRI Arms Transfer Database (note 1).

Metz, Libya (note 3), p. 284.

Milan Vego, ‘Soviet and Russian Strategy in the Mediterranean since 1945’, in John B. Hattendorf (ed.), Naval Policy and Strategy in the Mediterranean. Past, Present and Future (London: Frank Cass, 2000), pp. 174–6.

John Wright, Libya: A Modern History (London: Croom Helm, 1982), p. 201; St. John, Qaddafi's World Design (note 7), p. 78.

St. John, Libya (note 9), p. 181.

Between 1970 and 1980, Libya ranked ahead of South Africa (US$2.1 billion) and Greece (US$1.9 billion) as an arms client of France (SIPRI Arms Transfer Database, note 1).

R.M. Salerno, ‘Global Independence versus Regional Interdependence: France and Italy in the Mediterranean since 1945’, in Hattendorf (ed.), Naval Policy and Strategy in the Mediterranean (note 13), p. 211.

SIPRI Arms Transfer Database (note 1).

Gwynne Dyer, ‘Libya’, in John Keegan (Ed.), World Armies (London: Macmillan, 1983), p. 366.

Metz, Libya (note 3), p. 250.

William Zartman, ‘Arms Imports – The Libya Experience’, in US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, 1971–1980 (Washington, DC: ACDA, 1983), pp. 16–18.

Wright, Libya (note 14), p. 202; Hanspeter Mattes, ‘Challenges to Security Sector Governance in the Middle East: The Libyan Case’, Working Paper No. 144 (Geneva: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF), 2004), p. 3.

Kenneth M. Pollack, Arabs at War. Military Effectiveness 1948–1991 (Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press, 2004), p. 365.

Anthony Cordesman, A Tragedy of Arms. Military and Security Development in the Maghreb (Westport: Praeger, 2002), p. 220.

Metz, Libya (note 3), p. 280.

See, for example, Steven L. Spiegel et al. (eds), Practical Peacemaking in the Middle East: Arms Control and Regional Security (New York: Garland, 1995); Geoffrey Kemp, The Control of the Middle East Arms Race (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1991). Some analysts have also pointed to the petroleum factor. However, while wealth generated by oil revenues might provide the necessary means to pay for arms, this in itself cannot explain why states would purchase weapons. See, for example, Yahya M. Sadowski, Scuds or Butter? The Political Economy of Arms Control in the Middle East (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 1993).

Keith Krause, ‘Middle Eastern Arms Recipients in the Post-Cold War World’, Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Vol. 535 (September 1994), pp. 73–90. The fact that in many developing countries security policies, including arms transfers, are determined not so much by threats emanating from other states but rather by challenges to the ruling regime has been pointed out in particular by Mohammed Ayoob. See Mohammed Ayoob, The Third World Security Predicament: State Making, Regional Conflict, and the International System (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1995).

Between 1973 and 1974, Libyan arms imports tripled, from US$630 million to around US$1.9 billion.

Mary-Jane Deeb, ‘The Primacy of Libya's National Interest’, in Lemarchand, The Green and the Black (note 6), p. 32.

Cordesman, Tragedy of Arms (note 24), pp. 10–11.

See, for example, James A. Philipps, ‘Moscow's Thriving Libyan Connection’, Backgrounder No. 362 (The Heritage Foundation, 1984), pp. 6–7.

Dyer, Libya (note 19), p. 371; Foltz, Libya's Military Power (note 6), p. 55.

St. John, Qaddafi's World Design (note 7), pp. 49–67; Mansour o. El-Kikhia, Libya's Qaddafi. The Politics of Contradiction (Gainsville, FL: Florida University Press, 1997), pp. 117–23.

Concrete steps in this direction were attempted by Qaddafi from the early 1970s onwards in the form of various efforts at amalgamation with countries such as Syria, Sudan, Chad, Algeria and Mauretania – all of which were ultimately rejected.

Dyer, Libya (note 19), p. 371.

Målfrid Braut-Hegghammer, ‘Libya's Nuclear Turnaround: Perspectives from Tripoli’, The Middle East Journal, Vol. 62, No. 1 (Winter 2008), pp. 59–62.

According to the SIPRI Arms Transfer Database, Libyan transfers of major conventional weapons to other states and insurgent groups amounted to around US$1.2 billion, although given the nature of these deals this is probably an underestimate.

See SIPRI Arms Transfer Database (note 1).

David S. Sorenson, ‘Civil–Military Relations in North Africa’, Middle East Policy Journal, Vol. 14, No. 4 (Winter 2007), pp. 99–114.

Dirk Vanderwalle, Libya since Independence. Oil and State-Building (London: I.B. Tauris, 1998), p. 115.

See, for example, Steven A. Cook, Ruling But Not Governing: The Military and Political Development in Egypt, Algeria, and Turkey (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2007).

Mattes, The Libyan Case (note 22), p. 5.

In the internal power struggle in Chad from the late 1970s onwards, France supported Defence Minister Hissen Habré, whereas Libya, which aimed to merge Chad and Libya, sided with rebel leader Goukouni Oueddei.

Statement by Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Twelve on International Terrorism and the Crisis in the Mediterranean, European Political Cooperation Presidency, 14 April 1986.

St. John, Qaddafi's World Design (note 7), p. 78.

SIPRI Arms Transfer Database (note 1).

SIRPI Arms Transfer Database (note 1).

Cordesman, Tragedy of Arms (note 24), p. 206.

‘France Corners Libya Defense Budget – for Now’, Jane's Press Release, 18 December 2007.

‘Libyan Leader to Discuss Arms Deals during Visit to Russia’, RIA Novosti, 31 October 2009.

SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, available at http://www.sipri.org/databases/milex (accessed 26 October 2009).

Jane's Press Release (note 49).

Business Monitor International, Libya Defense and Security Report Q3 2008, 1 July 2008.

Libya Defense and Security Exhibition (Libdex 2008), ‘Overview’, available at http://www.libdex.ly/overview.htm

Business Monitor International, ‘Libya: Investment to Offset Global Conditions’, available at http://www.fdi.net/bmi/bmidisplay.cfm?filename=OEMO_20081107_216436_xml.html

On trends in the Middle East in general, see SIRPI Yearbook 2007 (Oxford: SIPRI, Oxford University Press, 2007), pp. 369–402.

SIRPI Arms Transfer Database (note 1).

‘Lockheed Gets US Contract for Morocco F-16 Jets’, Reuters, 5 June 2008.

Muammar Qaddafi, ‘The One-State Solution’, New York Times, 22 January 2009.

‘Israel Not Seen as Strategic Threat, Libya Tells U.S. Legislators’, The Jerusalem Report, 8 March 2004.

St. John, Libya (note 9), pp. 226–33.

‘Gaddafi: Africa's “King of Kings”’, BBC News, 29 August 2008, ‘Libyan Leader Imposes Himself as “King of Kings” in Africa’, Religious Intelligence, 3 February 2009.

Derek Lutterbeck, ‘Migrants, Weapons and Oil: Europe and Libya after the Sanctions’, Journal of North African Studies, Vol. 14, No. 2 (June 2009), pp. 169–84.

Luis Martinez, ‘Libya: The Conversion of a “Terrorist State”’, Mediterranean Politics, Vol. 11, No. 2 (2006), p. 164.

Andrew Solomon, ‘The Circle of Fire: Letter from Libya’, The New Yorker, 8 May 2006.

‘Qaddafi Offers Russia a Naval Base in Libya’, The Guardian, 1 November 2008; ‘Russia, Belarus, Ukraine Offer Arms to Qaddafi’, The Middle East Times, 7 November 2008; ‘No Future Attack on Libya from Italy Base: Gaddafi’, Reuters, 2 September 2008; ‘Libia, la Nato all’Italia: Nessun dubbio su di voi’, La Repubblica, 3 September 2008.

‘U.S., Libya Neither Friends Nor Enemies, Gaddafi Says before Rice's Visit’, Washington Post, 2 September 2008.

See, for example, Lewis A. Dunn, ‘Some Reflections on the Dove's Dilemma’, International Organization, Vol. 35, No. 1 (Winter 1981), pp. 181–92.

Braut-Hegghammer, ‘Libya's Nuclear Turnaround’ (note 36). Thus far, however, this phenomenon does not seem to have occurred in other countries which have ended their nuclear weapons programmes, such as Brazil, South Africa or CIS countries.

Dirk Vandewalle, A History of Modern Libya (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006), p. 205; Mattes, ‘The Libyan Case’ (note 22).

Amal Obeidi, ‘Libyan Security Policy: Between Existence and Feasibility’, Paper delivered a workshop on security governance in the southern Mediterranean, organized by Geneva Centre for Security Policy, Malta, May 2004; Bashir Al-Kut, ‘Illegal Migration in Libya: Problems and Solutions’, Paper delivered at Mediterranean Forum on Migration, Development and Diplomacy, Malta, 2 June 2008.

Martinez, ‘Conversion of a “Terrorist State”’ (note 64), pp. 157–9; Ray Takeyh, ‘Qadhafi and the Challenge of Militant Islam’, Washington Quarterly, Vol. 21, No. 3 (Summer 1998), pp. 159–73.

‘France: Resuming a Role as Libya's Arms Dealer’, Stratfor, 1 March 2005.

‘La France et la Libye du colonel Kadhafi relancent leur “coopération stratégique” et militaire’, Le Monde, 8 February 2005; ‘France Looks for Deals with Libya's Military’, International Herald Tribune, 7 February 2005.

‘French Arms Contracts: Paris Seeking to Win a Major Share in Big Military Contracts’, Africa Research Bulletin, October 2006, pp. 16839–40.

‘Tripoli annonce un contrat d'armement avec la France, l'Elysée dans l'embarras’, Le Monde, 2 August 2007; ‘After Denials, Arms Deal with Libya is Confirmed’, New Europe, 5 August 2007.

‘Chad's Toyotas Rout Libyan Tanks’, New York Times, 16 August 1987.

‘Des contrats pour 10 milliards d’euros et des critiques’, Le Figaro, 11 December 2007; ‘La Libye s'engage sur quelque 10 milliards d'euros de contrats auprès de la France’, Le Monde, 11 December 2007.

Over the last ten years, the United Arab Emirates have been the main receiver of military exports from France, receiving arms worth around US$500 million per year (SIPRI Arms Transfers Database, note 1).

‘Dear Near on Sale of 14 Rafales to Libya’, Defense News, 19 March 2009.

Derek Lutterbeck, ‘The West and Russia in the Mediterranean: Towards a Renewed Rivalry?’, forthcoming in Mediterranean Politics Vol. 14, No. 3 (2009).

Rusian Aliev, ‘Military–Technical Relations between Libya, Syria, Egypt and Russia’, Moscow Defense Brief, No. 3 (2007), pp. 15–18.

Sergei Blagov, ‘Russia Seeks Stronger Mideast Role’, ISN Security Watch, 22 April 2008.

‘Algeria Spat Shows Challenge to Russian Arms Sales’, Reuters, 1 April 2008.

‘Russia, Libya Sign Warship Contract Worth up to $200 mln’, RIA Novosti, 10 March 2009.

‘Libya: A Russian Port Call and the West’, Stratfor, 1 October 2008.

‘Libya Leader to Discuss Hosting Russian Base: Report’, Reuters, 31 October 2008.

‘Naval Bases Planned for Libya, Syria’, Moscow Times, 19 January 2009.

‘Russia, Belarus, Ukraine Offer Arms to Qaddafi’, Middle East Times, 7 November 2009; ‘Maghreb Maneuvers: Strengthening Ties with Controversial Libyan Leader Present Unusual Opportunities for Ukraine’, Business Ukraine, 10 November 2008; ‘Qaddafi: Nations Competing to Sell Arms to Libya’, The Seattle Times, 6 November 2008.

‘Immigrazione, le rotte del record’, Corriere della sera, 15 January 2009.

‘Accordo Finmeccanica e AgustaWestland con Libia nel settore aeronautico e dei sistemi di sicurezza Finmeccanica’, Finmeccanica, Communicato Stampa, Roma, 17 January 2006; ‘La Libia acquista un Atr 42 Mp’, Napoli.com, 18 January 2008.

Al-Kut, ‘Illegal Migration in Libya’ (note 71).

For information on the 2004 exercise, see ‘Nauras 2004, collaborazone Italia–Libia’, Pagine di Difesa, 13 March 2004, available at http://www.paginedidifesa.it/2004/danna_040513.html

‘Immigrazione, Italia e Libia insieme per pattugliare le coste libiche’, La Repubblica, 29 December 2007; ‘Immigrazione, accordo Italia–Libia’, La Stampa, 29 December 2007.

Amnesty International, The State of the World's Human Rights (London: Amnesty International, 2008), pp. 193–5; Human Rights Watch, ‘Stemming the Flow: Abuses against Migrants, Asylum Seekers and Refugees’, September 2006.

‘MoD Targets Libya and Iraq as “Priority” Arms Sales Targets’, The Observer, 24 September 2006.

Eight and ninth annual report according to the operative provision 8 of the European Union Code of Conduct on arms exports (2006/C 250/01, 2007/C 253/01); UK Annual Report on Strategic Export Controls 2005, Statistical Annex.

‘Britain and Libya Unveil Energy and Arms Deals’, International Herald Tribune, 30 May 2007.

‘Libya Purchases Gear from General Dynamics UK’, Defence News, 8 May 2008.

‘Libyan Cadet to Train with William at Sandhurst’, Telegraph, 27 August 2005.

Federal Register, Vol. 72, No. 25 (February 2007), Rules and Regulations, p. 5614; Christopher M. Blanchard, Libya: Background and U.S. Relations, CRS Report for Congress, 18 November 2008.

‘U.S. Eyes Arms Sales to Libya’, Reuters, 6 May 2009.

‘Libya Complains’, The New York Times, 15 March 2009.

Yahia Zoubir, ‘The United States, Islamism, Terrorism and Democracy’, in Yahia Zoubir and Haizam Amirah-Fernandez, North Africa. Politics, Region and the Limits of Transformation (London and New York: Routledge, 2008), p. 279.

US Department of State Factsheet, ‘Current State of U.S.–Libya Bilateral Relationship’, Washington, DC, 2 September 2008.

Ronald Bruce St. John, ‘A Defining Moment for the “King of Kings”’, Arab Reform Bulletin, March 2009.

Amnesty International, The State of the World's Human Rights (note 95), pp. 193–5; Human Rights Watch, World Report 2008 (New York: Human Rights Watch, 2008), p. 505–9.

Lutterbeck, ‘Migrants, Weapons and Oil’ (note 63).

‘Waffen-deal mit Libyen: Deutsche Politiker empört, Sarkozy streitet Beteiligung ab’, Der Spiegel, 4 August 2007; ‘La visite à Paris de M. Kadhafi provoque un feu nourri de critiques’, Le Monde, 11 December 2007; ‘Gaddafi Visit Seals French Deals’, BBC News, 10 December 2007.

Lutterbeck, ‘Migrants, Weapons and Oil’ (note 63).

See Martinez, ‘Conversion of a “Terrorist State”’ (note 64), p. 164.