Revolutionary Bargain: The Unmaking of Ukraine's Autocracy through Pacting

Abstract

‘Electoral revolutions’, of which the Orange Revolution is an example, are a by-product of a protracted and inconclusive struggle among political elites, and they promote democratization only inasmuch as they push elites to a consensus on the new institutional rules. This is illustrated by the dynamics of elite conflict in Ukraine, starting from the founding political crisis of 2000 and tracing the changing institutional preferences of the incumbents and challengers, as well as their conflicting political strategies. Ukraine's protests in 2004 helped ruling and opposition elites to reconcile their differences and agree on the new power-sharing arrangement embodied in the parliamentary–presidential system.

Notes

1. See, among others, Michael McFaul, ‘Transitions from Postcommunism’, Journal of Democracy, Vol.16, No.3 (2005), pp.5–19; Joshua Tucker, ‘Enough! Electoral Fraud, Collective Action Problems, and the “2nd Wave” of Post-Communist Democratic Revolutions’, paper presented at the First Annual Danyliw Research Seminar, Ottawa, Canada, 30 Sept.–1 Oct. 2005; Paul D'Anieri, ‘Explaining the Success and Failure of Post-communist Revolutions’, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Vol.39 (2006), pp.331–50; Mark Beissinger, ‘Structure and Example in Modular Political Phenomena: The Diffusion of Bulldozer/Rose/Orange/Tulip Revolutions’, unpublished paper (2005).

2. Valerie Bunce and Sharon Wolchik, ‘International Diffusion and Postcommunist Electoral Revolutions’, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Vol.39 (2006), pp. 283–304 (p.284).

3. Dankwart Rustow, ‘Transitions to Democracy: Toward a Dynamic Model’, Comparative Politics, Vol.2, No.3 (1970), pp.337–63.

4. Guillermo O'Donnell and Philippe C. Schmitter (eds.), Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Comparative Perspectives (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1986).

5. Philippe C. Schmitter, ‘Liberation by Golpe’, Armed Forces and Society, Vol.2, No.1 (1975), pp.5–33 (p.20).

6. Valerie Bunce, ‘Comparative Democratization: Big and Bounded Generalizations’, Comparative Political Studies, Vol.33, Nos.6–7 (2000), pp.703–34 (p.707).

7. Ibid., p.708.

8. On the contagious nature of polarization, see Nancy Bermeo, Ordinary People in Extraordinary Times: The Citizenry and the Breakdown of Democracy (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2003).

9. Political crisis is defined here, following Dogan and Higley, as ‘an abrupt and brutal challenge to the survival of a political regime’: see Mattei Dogan and John Higley (eds.), Elites, Crises, and the Origins of Regimes (Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 1998), p.7.

10. In an allegedly rigged referendum (April 2000), Kuchma's four proposals were favoured by, on average, 86 per cent of the voters: see <http://www.electionguide.org/results.php?ID = 653>, accessed 7 Feb. 2007; see also Kataryna Wolczuk, The Moulding of Ukraine. The Constitutional Politics of State Formation (Budapest: CEU Press, 2001), p.275.

11. Keith Darden, ‘Blackmail as a Tool of State Domination: Ukraine Under Kuchma’, East European Constitutional Review, Vol.10, Nos.2–3 (2001).

12. Matsuzato describes how local elites built ‘electoral machines’ to deliver votes for Kuchma: see Kimitaka Matsuzato, ‘All Kuchma's Men: The Reshuffling of Ukrainian Governors and the Presidential Election of 1999’, Post-Soviet Geography and Economics, Vol.42, No.6 (2001), pp.416–39.

13. Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way, ‘The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism’, Journal of Democracy, Vol.13, No.2 (2000), pp.51–65.

14. Richard Rose, William Mishler and Christian Haerpfer, Democracy and Its Alternatives: Understanding Post-Communist Societies (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1998), p.36.

15. ‘Bol'shinstvo kievlyan schitayut, chto ot vlasti mozhno bylo ozhydat’ i ne takogo …', Zerkalo Nedeli/Dzerkalo Tyzhnya, No.48, 9–15 Dec. 2000.

16. Thomas Carson, Attitudes Towards Change, the Current Situation and Civic Action (Washington, DC: IFES, 2001), pp.A1–35.

17. William Gamson, Talking Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1992), p.7.

18. Yuri Lutsenko, member of the Socialist Party and assistant to Moroz, was a major exception.

19. Following Fishman, ‘regime’ is defined here as ‘the formal and informal organization of the center of political power and of its relations with the broader society’: see Robert Fishman, ‘Rethinking State and Regime: Southern Europe's Transition to Democracy’, World Politics, Vol.42, No.3 (1990), pp.422–40 (p.428).

20. 'Vystup u Parlamenti Ukrainy Volodymyra Chemerysa, spivholovy aktsii “Ukrainy bez Kuchmy”, Ukrainska Pravda, 21 Dec. 2000.

21. Interview by the author with Yurii Lutsenko, 23 March 2003.

22. M. Steven Fish, Democracy from Scratch: Opposition and Regime in the New Russian Revolution (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1995), p.128.

23. Sotsiopolis, March 2001.

24. ‘Gromads’ ka dumka pro uriad Viktora Yushchenka', available at <http://www.dif.org.ua/modules/pages/files/1508011528.zip>, accessed 7 Feb. 2007.

25. 49 per cent could not say whether the recordings were authentic or not: see ibid.

26. The poll was conducted two weeks after the violent clash in Kyiv: see Sotsiopolis, March 2001.

27. Sotsiopolis, Jan. 2000.

28. Democratic Initiatives, Jan.–Feb. 2001.

29. Juan Linz, The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes: Crisis, Breakdown, and Re-equilibration (Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1978), p.17.

30. In March 2001, 11 per cent named Moroz and Tymoshenko as the least trusted politicians in Ukraine, and only Kuchma had a worse result: Sotsiopolis, March 2001.

31. ‘Holovni politychni aktory ta konflikty v Ukraini: otsinka hromads'kosti’, Instytut Polityky, 21 May 2001.

32. Democratic Initiatives, March 2001.

33. Interview with President Leonid Kuchma, Ukrainian Service of RFE/RL, 4 April 2001.

34. ‘Yushchenko ide u vidryv’, Ukrainska Pravda, 16 Oct. 2000.

35. Democratic Initiatives, March 2001.

36. ‘Yushchenko Startuet’, available at <http://www.korrespondent.net>, accessed 30 April 2002.

37. Rustow, ‘Transitions to Democracy’, p.352.

38. For complete election results, see <http://www.electionguide.org/results.phd?ID = 417>, accessed 7 Feb. 2007.

39. Linz, The Breakdown of Democratic Regimes, p.87.

40. Grzegorz Ekiert, The State Against Society: Political Crises and Their Aftermath in East Central Europe (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996), p.339, n.56.

41. Ibid., p.28.

42. Ibid.

43. RFE/RL interview, 4 April 2001.

44. ‘Kuchma predlozhil pereiti k parlamentsko-prezidentskoi sisteme’, available at <http://www.korrespondent.net>, accessed 25 Aug. 2002.

45. Ibid.

46. ‘Ukraintsy ne podderzhyvayut deistviya Prezidenta’, available at <http://www.korrespondent.net>, accessed 30 Sept. 2002.

47. Rustow, ‘Transitions to Democracy’.

48. ‘V aktsii “Povstan’, Ukraino!” namereny uchavstvovat' 12 pertsent ukraintsev', available at <http://www.korrespondent.net>, accessed 4 March 2003.

49. Sotsiopolis, April 2003.

50. Ibid.

51. ‘Kuchma obratilsya k narodu po sluchayu Dnya Nezavisimosti’, available at <http://www.korrespondent.net>, accessed 23 Aug. 2003.

52. Author's interview with Oleksandr Moroz, 23 May 2004.

53. Ekiert, The State Against Society, p.314.

54. On the significance of the perception of a power balance between actors for democratic transition, see Michael McFaul, Russia's Unfinished Revolution: Political Change from Gorbachev to Putin (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2001).

55. Fish, Democracy from Scratch, p.61.

56. Ibid.

57. Viktor Yushchenko's speech on Spivoche Pole, Kyiv, 4 July 2004, available at <http://ww2.yuschenko.com.ua/ukr/Press_centre/168/846>, accessed 7 Feb. 2007.

58. Viktor Yushchenko's speech on European Square, Kyiv, 18 Sept. 2004, available at <http://ww2.yuschenko.com.ua/ukr/present/174/1150>, accessed 7 Feb. 2007.

59. ‘Kuchma schitaet, chto ukraintsy nichego ne khotyat izmenit’ v svoei strane', available at <http://www.korrespondent.net>, accessed 23 Aug. 2004.

60. ‘Kuchma zayavil, chto revolyutsii ne budet’, available at <http://www.korrespondent.net>, accessed 21 Nov. 2004.

61. Tatiana Silina, Serhiy Rahmanin and Olga Dmitricheva, ‘Anatomiya dushi Maidanu’, Dzerkalo Tyzhnya, No.50, 11–17 Dec. 2004.

62. Ibid.

63. Ibid.

64. Dogan and Higley (eds.), Elites, Crises, and the Origins of Regimes, p.55.

65. On the essence of elite pacts, see O'Donnell and Schmitter, Transitions from Authoritarian Rule, p.37.

66. Rustow, ‘Transitions to Democracy’, p.355.

67. Dogan and Higley, Elites, Crises, and the Origins of Regimes, pp.55–6.

68. Rustow, ‘Transitions to Democracy’, p.356.

69. ‘Druhyi kruhlyi stil pid chas revoliutsii’, Ukrains'ka Pravda, 9 March 2005.

70. Ibid.

71. ‘Uchastniki kruglogo stola prinyali sovmestnoe zayavlenie’, available at <http://www.korrespondent.net>, accessed 1 Dec. 2004.

72. ‘Peregovory po uregulirovaniyu politicheskogo krizisa v Ukraine zakonchilis’ neudachno', available at <http://www.korrespondent.net>, accessed 7 Dec. 2004.

73. For procedural reasons, the draft law with constitutional changes was registered as 4180, although it was in essence identical to 4105, which had failed in April.

74. Silina et al., ‘Anatomiya dushi Maidanu’.

75. Ibid.

76. The elite pact has been rumoured to contain a secret provision giving Kuchma a guarantee of immunity from criminal prosecution. Although Yushchenko denied this, his decision to retain Sviatoslav Piskun, Kuchma's appointee, as prosecutor-general fuelled further suspicions regarding his unofficial commitments to the ex-president.

77. Rustow, ‘Transitions to Democracy’, p.356.

78. McFaul, Russia's Unfinished Revolution, p.19.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Serhiy Kudelia

Serhiy Kudelia is a PhD student at the Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, and a frequent contributor to the broadcasts of Ukrainian Service of RFE/RL. He holds a BA in international relations from Lviv National University and a master's degree in political science from Stanford.