Will the Real Tunisian Opposition Please Stand Up? Opposition Coordination Failures under Authoritarian Constraints

Abstract

This contribution examines the reasons behind the failure of Tunisia's opposition to forge effective coordination and collaborative links during Ben Ali's reign, focusing specifically on the inability and unwillingness of political parties to act in concert in order to challenge his authoritarian rule. Focusing on two attempts at opposition coordination in the 2000s (Rencontre Démocratique and 18 October Collectif), it demonstrates that a number of interconnected explanations are at the heart of this failure, ranging from ideological differences and strategic divergence to personal rivalries among opposition leaders. The key contention of this study is that divisions within the political opposition were as important as regime repression in sustaining the Ben Ali regime for over 20 years. In addition, the present study contends that these intra-opposition divisions and past coordination failures explain the absence of political parties at the helm of the 2011 uprising.

Acknowledgements

The authors are grateful to the Panos Institute in Paris for its financial support in conducting research in Tunisia. We wish to thank all those Tunisians who gave us their time. Francesco Cavatorta is very grateful to Paul Aarts, Kawa Hassan, Reinoud Leenders, Salam Kawakibi and Juliette Verhoeven for the very fruitful discussions on opposition dynamics in the Arab world in the context of the HIVOS Knowledge Programme based at the University of Amsterdam. Rikke Haugbølle is grateful to Khaled Ben Brahim for the invaluable exchange of ideas. Finally, we would like to acknowledge the very useful comments received by Hendrik Kraetzschmar and the anonymous referees. An earlier version of this study was presented at the Annual Conference of the British Society for Middle East Studies (BRISMES) held at the University of Exeter, 26–29 July 2011.

Notes

¹ D. Byman, ‘Why Mideast Tumult Caught Scholars by Surprise’, The Chronicle of Higher Education, 13 February 2011, http://chronicle.com/article/Why-Mideast-Tumult-Caught/126307/ (accessed 13 February 2011).

² See for instance Lisa Anderson, ‘Searching Where the Light Shines. Studying Democratization in the Middle East’, Annual Review of Political Science, 9 (2006), pp. 189–214; and Steven Heydemann, ‘Upgrading Authoritarianism in the Arab World’, The Brookings Institution, Analysis Paper, 13 (2007), pp. 1–37.

³ The authors are indebted to Steven Heydemann for pointing out that the concept of path dependency could be applied in this context.

⁴ M. Kaldor, ‘Civil Society in 1989 and 2011’, 7 February 2011, http://www.opendemocracy.net/mary-kaldor/civil-society-in-1989-and-2011 (accessed 7 February 2011).

⁵ M. Ottaway, ‘The Presidents Left, the Regimes Are Still There’, Carnegie Endowment, 14 February 2011, http://carnegieendowment.org/publications/?fa = 42627 (accessed 14 February 2011).

⁶ See G. Friedman, ‘Egypt: The Distance between Enthusiasm and Reality’, Stratford Weekly, 13 February 2011, http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110213-egypt-distance-between-enthusiasm-and-reality (accessed 13 February 2011).

⁷ B. Ben Yahmed, ‘Jours de victoire…’, La Jeune Afrique, 2610 (16–22 January 2011), p. 4. The same point is made by H. Ben Abdallah El Alaoui, ‘Tunisie, les éclaireurs’, Le Monde Diplomatique, 683 (February 2011), p. 1.

⁸ See for instance L. Sadiki, ‘Towards Arab Liberal Governance: From the Democracy of the Bread to the Democracy of the Vote’, Third World Quarterly, 18 (1997), pp. 127–148.

⁹ For a comprehensive account of cross-ideological cooperation in the Arab world, see J. Clark, ‘Threats, Structures and Resources’, Comparative Politics, 43 (2010), pp. 101–120.

¹⁰ See G. Martinez Fuentes, ‘El Islam politico Tunecino. Conflicto y coopearcion electoral en los comicios presidenciales de 2004 y 2009’, Revista CIDOB d'Afers Internacionals, 93/94 (2011), pp. 89–109. For a definition and further discussion of the concepts of ‘electoral alliance’ and ‘reform coalitions’, see introductory contribution by H. Kraetzschmar in this issue, ‘Mapping Opposition Cooperation in the Arab World: From Single-Issue Coalitions to Transnational Networks’.

¹¹ The INDP was a pre-electoral alliance between three left-wing parties (Ettajdid, the Socialist party of the left, and the Parti du Travail Patriotique et Démocratique) that had decided to support Ahmed Brahim as a presidential candidate in 2009. It was created just before the election and vanished after it.

¹² It was an initiative between four parties aimed at defending the rights of political prisoners. It was very much what H. Kraetzschmar describes in the introductory contribution as an ad hoc/single-issue coalition, which held no further objectives than supporting freedom of speech.

¹³ See B. Hibou, La Force del'Obéissance (Paris: La Découverte, 2006); and G. Martinez Fuentes, ‘Divisive Electoral Policies within Authoritarian Elections: The Tunisian Casuistry (1989–2009)’, Journal of North African Studies, 15 (2010), pp. 521–534.

¹⁴ The definition of political opposition we utilise is from Albrecht and is the following: ‘an institution located within a political system but outside of the realm of governance that has decisive organisational capacities and engages in competitive interactions with the incumbents of a political regime based on a minimum degree of mutual acceptance’. The definition can be found in H. Albrecht, ‘Introduction – Contentious Politics, Political Opposition, and Authoritarianism’, in H. Albrecht (ed.), Contentious Politics in the Middle East. Political Opposition under Authoritarianism (Gainesville: Florida University Press, 2010), p. 3.

¹⁵ N. Van de Walle, ‘Tipping Games: When Do Opposition Parties Coalesce?’, in A. Schedler (ed.), Electoral Authoritarianism: The Dynamics of Unfree Competition (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 2006), pp. 77–92. See also H. Kraetzschmar, ‘Opposition Cooperation in Electoral Autocracies: The United National Front for Change in Egypt's 2005 Parliamentary Elections’, in Albrecht, Contentious Politics in the Middle East.

¹⁶ J. Schwedler, Faith in Moderation (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2006).

¹⁷ M. Browers, ‘Origins and Architects of Yemen's Joint Meeting Press’, International Journal of Middle East Studies, 39 (2007), pp. 565–586.

¹⁸ J. Clark, ‘The Conditions of Islamist Moderation: Unpacking Cross-ideological Cooperation in Jordan’, International Journal of Middle East Studies, 38 (2006), pp. 539–560.

¹⁹ M. Abdelrahman, ‘With the Islamists? – Sometimes. With the State? – Never! Cooperation between the Left and Islamists in Egypt’, British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 36 (2009), pp. 37–54.

²⁰ M. Browers, Political Ideology in the Arab World (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009), p. 175.

²¹ M. Browers, Political Ideology in the Arab World (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009), p. 175.

²² See for instance H. Albrecht, ‘How Can Opposition Support Authoritarianism? Lessons from Egypt’, Democratization, 12 (2005), pp. 378–397.

²³ For a discussion on the dilemma between co-optation and marginalisation, see F. Cavatorta, ‘More than Repression; Strategies of Regime Survival. The Significance of Divide et Impera in Morocco’, Journal of Contemporary African Studies, 25 (2007), pp. 187–203.

²⁴ For a discussion on the role of material benefits for parties accepting authoritarian regimes' terms for participation, see E. Lust, ‘Elections under Authoritarianism: Preliminary Lessons from Jordan’, Democratization, 13 (2006), pp. 456–471.

²⁵ E. Dalmasso and F. Cavatorta, ‘The Emerging Power of Civil Society? The Human Rights Doctrine’, in B. Maddy-Weitzman and D. Zisenwine (eds), Contemporary Morocco: State, Politics and Society under Mohammed VI (London: Routledge, forthcoming 2012).

²⁶ For a discussion on post-democratisation, see M. Valbjørn and A. Bank, ‘Examining the Post in Post-Democratization: The Future of Middle Eastern Political Rule through the Lenses of the Past’, Middle East Critique, 19 (2010), pp. 183–200.

²⁷ Albrecht, Contentious Politics in the Middle East, p. 7.

²⁸ E. Bellin, ‘The Robustness of Authoritarianism in the Middle East’, Comparative Politics, 36 (2004), pp. 139–157.

²⁹ F. Cavatorta, ‘Divided They Stand, Divided They Fail: Opposition Politics in Morocco’, Democratization, 16 (2009), pp. 137–156.

³² M. Penner Angrist, ‘Parties, Parliament and Political Dissent in Tunisia’, pp. 94–95. Journal of North African Studies, 4 (1999), pp. 89–104.

³⁰ Neo-Destour was the party that led Tunisia to independence. It was renamed Parti Socialiste Destourien (PSD) in 1964 and renamed again under Ben Ali as Rassemblement Constitutionel Démocratique (RCD).

³¹ K. Perkins, A History of Modern Tunisia (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2004).

³³ R. Basly, ‘The Future of Al-Nahda in Tunisia’, Arab Reform Bulletin, 20 April 2011, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/arb/?fa = show&article = 43675 (accessed 27 April 2011).

³⁵ Perkins, A History of Modern Tunisia, p. 134.

³⁴ See E. Murphy, Economic and Political Change in Tunisia. From Bourguiba to Ben Ali (London: Palgrave Macmillan, 1999).

³⁶ For a discussion of the Tunisian National Pact of 1988, see L. Anderson, ‘Political Pacts, Liberalism and Democracy: The Tunisian National Pact of 1988’, Government and Opposition, 26 (1991), pp. 244–260.

³⁷ The interview can be found in Le Temps, http://www.letemps.com.tn/article-32819-28082009.html (accessed 3 March 2011).

³⁸ The interview can be found in Le Temps, http://www.letemps.com.tn/article-32819-28082009.html (accessed 3 March 2011).

³⁹ Penner Angrist, ‘Parties, Parliament and Political Dissent’.

⁴⁰ See the 25 September 2009 interview by Le Monde's correspondent Florence Beaugé with Ben Jaafar, available at http://www.lemonde.fr/afrique/article/2009/09/25/tunisie-l-opposant-mustapha-ben-jaafar-candidat-a-la-presidentielle_1245376_3212.html (accessed 18 June 2011).

⁴¹ A short summary of the election results can be found on the official page of the United Nations Development Programme, at http://www.pogar.org/countries/theme.aspx?t = 3&cid = 20 (accessed 20 June 2011).

⁴² In 1990, the Islamist party in Algeria scored an impressive victory in the local elections and the following year it won the legislative elections, indicating the strong support that Islamists had in North Africa. Rather than risking an Islamist takeover through the ballot box, the Algerian army organised a coup, annulled the election results and banned the party. A civil war ensued and the violence emanating from Algeria affected the way in which other Arab leaders dealt with political Islam.

⁴³ See the special report on Tunisian politics during the Ben Ali era by Youssef Ben Ismail, ‘Dossier sur l'Extremisme Politique’, El Moutawen, 14 April 2011. The two-part special report in French is available at http://elmouwaten.com/modules.php?name = News&file = print&sid = 110 (accessed 20 May 2011).

⁴⁴ K. Mohsen-Finan, ‘Le Maghreb entre ouvertures nécessaires et autoritarismes possibles’, Ramses Annual Report, 2006, pp. 111–126.

⁴⁵ N. Grimaud, ‘La spécifité tunisienne en question’, Politique Etrangère, 60 (1995), pp. 389–402.

⁴⁶ E. Dalmasso and F. Cavatorta, ‘Reforming the Family Code in Tunisia and Morocco – The Struggle between Religion, Globalisation and Democracy’, Totalitarian Movements and Political Religions, 11 (2010), pp. 195–210.

⁴⁷ C. Alexander, Tunisia. Stability and Reform in the Modern Maghreb (London: Routledge, 2010), p. 63.

⁴⁸ For a discussion of this, see Martinez Fuentes, ‘El Islam politico Tunecino’.

⁴⁹ See a profile and history of the party at http://iphone.france24.com/fr/20110114-tunisie-mohammed-nejib-chebbi-pdp-opposition-ben-ali-gouvernement-union-nationale (accessed 15 June 2011).

⁵⁰ V. Durac and F. Cavatorta, ‘Strengthening Authoritarian Rule through Democracy Promotion? Examining the Paradox of the US and EU Security Strategies. The Case of Tunisia’, British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, 36 (2009), pp. 3–19.

⁵¹ Cavatorta, ‘Divided They Stand’.

⁵² The interview was published online on 18 January 2011 and is available at http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/24d710a6-22ee-11e0-ad0b-00144feab49a.html#axzz1Hq7pnwRv (accessed 19 January 2011).

⁵³ See the report ‘What Can We Learn from Coalition-Building Experiences?’, published by the Arab Reform Initiative, February 2011, p. 4.

⁵⁴ See the report ‘What Can We Learn from Coalition-Building Experiences?’, published by the Arab Reform Initiative, February 2011, p. 4.

⁵⁵ L. Storm, ‘The Persistence of Authoritarianism as a Source of Radicalization in North Africa’, International Affairs, 85 (2009), pp. 997–1013.

⁵⁶ Martinez Fuentes, ‘El Islam politico Tunecino’.

⁵⁷ M. Willis, ‘Political Parties in the Maghrib: The Illusion of Significance?’, Journal of North African Studies, 7 (2002), pp. 1–22.

⁵⁸ K. Kausch, ‘Tunisia: The Life of Others’, FRIDE Working Papers, 85, June (2009), p. 11.

⁵⁹ F. Dahmani, ‘Tunisie, la laicité en danger’, La Jeune Afrique, 2623/2624 (17–30 April 2011), pp. 36–37. According to a March 2011 poll, 48 per cent of Tunisians stated that they would strongly or somewhat prefer politics to be based on religion. Poll conducted by Williams Polls on behalf of the International Republican Institute (IRI). The analysis of the results can be found at http://www.iri.org/sites/default/files/2011%20April%2010%20IRI%20Tunisia%20Index%20,March%205-18,%202011.pdf.

⁶⁰ See a special report on political parties in post-revolutionary Tunisia by Abdelaziz Barrouhi in La Jeune Afrique, 2627 (1–21 May 2011), pp. 42–47.