The sunrise of the Third Republic? The evolution of the Italian party-system after the 2008 general election and the prospects for constitutional reform

Abstract

The results of the 2008 Italian general election were welcomed by many as the ‘sunrise of the Third Republic’, heralding a new political system which would emerge from a comprehensive constitutional reform agreed between the main parties of government and opposition. The party system now looks significantly different from that (or those) of the ‘Second Republic’. In particular, the disappearance of the radical left from Parliament and a clear reduction in the number of parties are the main factors underpinning optimistic predictions about a possible compromise on constitutional reform. Drawing on Sartori's classic work as well as on more recent conceptualisations of party systems, this article analyses the evolution of the Italian party system over the medium and long term. It is cautious, if not pessimistic, about the prospects for reform. High levels of polarisation, stemming from different conceptions of democracy maintained by the two main parties, can be expected to hinder bipartisan reform. In particular, the figure of Berlusconi appears to represent both the cornerstone of the ‘reconstructed’ party system and the main obstacle to a widely agreed re-drafting of the Constitution.

Keywords:

• Italy
• party-system
• polarisation
• Berlusconi
• constitutional reform

Notes

Notes

1. See for instance Mieli (Corriere della Sera, 20 April 2008), Giannini (La Repubblica, 15 April 2008) and Ceccarelli (La Repubblica, 15 April 2008).

2. In his article appearing in the ‘Sole 24Ore’, D’Alimonte uses a more prudent expression, ‘the second phase of the transition’. However, the argument is substantially the same and the tone is rather optimistic.

3. Note that the problem I am raising here is different from Mair's concern with the overcrowding of the moderate pluralist type and the emptying of the two-party and polarised pluralism types (Mair 1997, 2006). Rather, I am concerned with empirical cases, such as the case discussed here, that do not fit any of the four Sartorian types.

4. In the first decade (1948–1958), the Psi was part of the ‘excluded left pole’. However, it was subsequently and gradually included in the anti-communist bloc and in the governmental area.

5. Some went as far as to argue that Italy was a (‘degenerated’) consociational regime (Bogaards 2005). However, this point is highly contentious. Certainly, as the failure of the historical compromise demonstrated, Italy has not been, and could not be, a ‘consociational regime’ in the classic ‘Lijphartian’ sense (Pappalardo 1980).

6. See Bull and Newell (1993) on the 1992 election as a turning point between the party system of the First and Second Republic. See Bull and Rhodes (1997) and Newell and Bull (1997) for a detailed account of party and party-system change in the first two elections of the Second Republic. See Di Virgilio (2006) for a more detached and analytical reconstruction of the phases which the party system went through from the late 1980s to 2005.

7. I am following the thesis and the periodisation proposed by DiVirgilio (2006).

8. For the 1993 electoral reform and its effects, see Katz (1996).

9. For an account of the 2005 electoral reform and its effects, see Massetti (2006).

10. In September 2008 prominent figures of the party released ambiguous statements that sounded like a partial rehabilitation of fascism (Corriere della Sera, 7 September 2008). When Fini intervened to put an end to the ambivalence by restating An's total condemnation of the Fascist regime, the Roman leader of the youth association of An–Young Action–wrote an open letter stating that the members of Young Action ‘cannot be, do not want to be and will never be anti-fascist’ (La Repubblica, 16 September 2008). This ideological distance between Fini and the party rank and file (and sometimes also some of his lieutenants) had already been pointed out by Ignazi in the 1990s. See for instance Ignazi (1998b).

11. Significant use of executive decrees and of votes of confidence in the legislation process, use of extra-parliamentary venues (mainly TV programmes) to present his policy proposals, blanketing of parliamentary questioning or, even worse (as in the EU Parliament), insulting replies are both substantive and emblematic examples of Berlusconi's disregard for the institution. For the MEPs’ reactions to Berlusconi's speech at the European Parliament, see the Guardian, 02 July 2003.

12. The results for the Senate substantively reflected those for the Lower House.

13. The relevance of electoral parties in the election held under the (corrected) single-member plurality system is derived inductively. That is, the fact that a party was included in one of the coalitions is taken as an indicator that such party was deemed relevant for the coalition's chances to win some seats.

14. The figures refer to post-election parties and do not take into account parties born (out of splinter MPs) during the parliamentary term.

15. It is worth restating that this count takes for granted that Fi and An will probably soon merge into one party (Pdl). Should this process fail, six parties have to be counted as relevant.

16. For an insightful account of the (mis)fortunes of centrism between structural constraints and elites’ projects in post-1992 Italy, see Donovan (2008).