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ABSTRACT
Programmes of disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) are increasingly implemented in contexts of violent extremist conflict. In such settings, DDR practitioners may need to distinguish between ex-combatants who can be safely reintegrated into civilian life, and ex-combatants who are likely to present a danger to the community in terms of violent and/or extremist re-offending. To help practitioners make this assessment, this paper explores how risk assessment tools used by psychologists in criminal justice settings may be adapted to screen for violent extremist offenders in DDR programmes. The findings suggest that the method of structured professional judgment (SPJ) can be used to assess the risk that individual ex-combatants will re-offend upon return to civilian life. By extension, SPJ can also: (1) help practitioners to understand what type of deradicalization and disengagement programming former members of extremist groups may require and (2) contribute to decisions concerning the release of ex-combatants from prisons and transitional DDR centres.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Notes on contributor
Joanne Richards works for the Bonn International Center for Conversion as a technical advisor on small arms control and DDR. She is currently seconded to the Peace and Security Department of the African Union (AU).
Notes
1 Cockayne and O’Neil, UN DDR in an Era of Violent Extremism.
2 Neumann in Borum, “Radicalization into Violent Extremism,” 10.
3 HRW, Sri Lanka: Free Civilians from Detention Camps.
4 Federal Government of Somalia, National Programme for the Treatment, 8.
5 Ibid., 8; See also Parrin, “Creating a Legal Framework.”
6 Felbab-Brown, “DDR in the Context of Offensive Military Operations,” 48; Fink, “The Blue Flag in Grey Zones,” 79; Rome Memorandum, “On Good Practices.”
7 Muggah and O’Donnell, “Next Generation DDR”; UN, Integrated DDR Standards.
8 Cockayne and O’Neil, UN DDR in an Era of Violent Extremism.
9 Horgan, “Deradicalization or Disengagement?”
10 Skeem and Monahan, “Current Directions,” 38.
11 National Research Council in Borum, “Assessing Risk for Terrorism Involvement,” 63.
12 Pressman, Risk Assessment Decisions, 9.
13 Borum, “Assessing Risk for Terrorism Involvement,” 64; Foley, Countering Violent Extremism, 9; Skeem and Monahan, “Current Directions,” 40.
14 Borum, “Assessing Risk for Terrorism Involvement,” 64.
15 UNODC, Handbook on the Management of Violent Extremist Prisoners, 54.
16 Forst in Monahan “The Individual Risk Assessment of Terrorism,” 181.
17 Borum, “Assessing Risk for Terrorism Involvement,” 65.
18 Pressman, Risk Assessment Decisions; Pressman and Flockton, “Violent Extremist Risk Assessment.”
19 Borum, “Assessing Risk for Terrorism Involvement,” 67.
20 Ibid., 66.
21 Skeem and Monahan, “Current Directions,” 39; Monahan, “The Individual Risk Assessment of Terrorism,” 173–4.
22 Monahan “The Individual Risk Assessment of Terrorism,” 173.
23 Ibid., 184.
24 Ibid., 183.
25 Ibid., 184; Pressman, Risk Assessment Decisions, i, 12–13; Foley, Countering Violent Extremism, 10; Borum, “Assessing Risk for Terrorism Involvement,” 67.
26 UNODC, Handbook on the Management of Violent Extremist Prisoners, 55.
27 Skeem and Monahan, “Current Directions,” 39.
28 Borum, “Assessing Risk for Terrorism Involvement,” 68.
29 Foley, Countering Violent Extremism, 10.
30 UNODC, Handbook on the Management of Violent Extremist Prisoners, 55.
31 Monahan, Predicting Violent Behavior; Monahan “The Individual Risk Assessment of Terrorism”; Ogloff and Davis, “Assessing Risk for Violence in the Australian Context.”
32 Hettiarachchi, “Sri Lanka’s Rehabilitation Program.”
33 Jeyaraj, Subramaniam Sivakamy Alias Col Thamilini.
34 Sirma, “Risk Assessment and the Prevention of Radicalization,” 285.
35 Webster, Eaves, Douglas, and Wintrup, The HCR-20 Scheme; Webster, Douglas, Eaves and Hart, HCR-20: Assessing risk for violence.
36 Webster, Eaves, Douglas and Wintrup, The HCR-20 Scheme, 22.
37 Pressman, Risk Assessment Decisions; Monahan, “The Individual Risk Assessment of Terrorism,” Pressman and Flockton, “Violent Extremist Risk Assessment.”
38 Pressman, Risk Assessment Decisions, 34.
39 Pressman and Flockton, “Violent Extremist Risk Assessment.”
40 Pressman, Duits, Rinne, and Flockton, VERA 2-R Violent Extremism Risk Assessment Version 2-Revised.
41 Pressman and Flockton, “Violent Extremist Risk Assessment.”
42 Pressman, Risk Assessment Decisions, 25, 32.
43 Lloyd and Dean, “The Development of Structured Guidelines.”
44 Ibid., 46.
45 Ibid., 46.
46 Freeman, Amnesties and DDR Programs.
47 Federal Government of Somalia, National Programme for the Treatment.
48 However see Parrin, “Creating a Legal Framework,” 254–6.
49 Adapted from Borum, “Assessing Risk for Terrorism Involvement,” 64.
50 UNODC, Handbook on the Management of Violent Extremist Prisoners, 54.
51 Monahan “The Individual Risk Assessment of Terrorism,” 177.
52 U.N. Security Council, Rule of Law and Transitional Justice, para. 32.
53 Al-Shabaab members have also recently begun to report for screening in Adado (central Somalia).
54 UNODC, Handbook on the Management of Violent Extremist Prisoners, 55.
55 Pressman and Flockton, “Violent Extremist Risk Assessment,” 126.
56 Oswald, “DDR and Detention in UN Peace Operations,” 87.
57 AU, African Union Guidelines on Detention and DDR.
58 Maden, Treating Violence: A Guide to Risk Management, 14.
59 Wilkinson, “Do Leopards Change Their Spots?”
60 Felbab-Brown, “DDR in the Context of Offensive Military Operations,” 48.
61 ICJ, Beyond Lawful Constraints, 6.
62 Ibid.
63 Webster in Odgers, Moretti and Dickon Reppucci, “Examining the Science and Practice.”
64 Borum, “Assessing Violence Risk among Youth,” 1276; Odgers, Moretti and Dickon Reppucci, “Examining the science and practice.”
65 GCTF, Good Practices on Women and Countering Violent Extremism.
66 Borum, Bartel and Forth, SAVRY: Professional Manual for Structured Assessment.
67 O’Neil, Disengaging Children in Violent Extremist Contexts.
68 Ibid.
69 Koehler, Understanding Deradicalization; Speckhard, “Prison and Community Based Disengagement and Deradicalization Programs”; Mullins “Rehabilitation of Islamist Terrorists.”
70 Felbab-Brown, “DDR – A Bridge Not Too Far,” 131.
71 Ibid., 123–4.
72 Richards, “Implementing DDR in Settings of Ongoing Conflict.”
73 Muggah and O’Donnell, “Next Generation DDR.”
74 UN Standard Minimum Rules for the Treatment of Prisoners, in UNODC, Handbook on the Management of High-Risk Prisoners, 40.
75 Ibid., 122; Rome Memorandum, “On Good Practices,” 12.
76 See, for example, Wilkinson, “Do Leopards Change Their Spots?”