Conflict escalation in the Middle East revisited: thinking through interstate rivalries and state-sponsored terrorism

ABSTRACT

This article argues that state sponsorship of terrorism is a by-product of conflicting relations between states that are generally hostile towards each other. States harbour and drive non-state actors, aiming to create security concerns to the target states, which provoke the target states to take retaliatory actions against the host and/or the terrorist group in a bid to avoid destabilization, uncertainty, and a possible shift in the balance of power between the sponsoring and target state. At this juncture, state sponsorship of terrorism contributes to escalating the conflict. Hence, this type of terrorism should not be treated as a distinct form of violence but as a corollary of interstate rivalries. Iran’s sponsorship of Hezbollah and the Houthis against the backdrop of its rivalry with Israel and Saudi Arabia offers a vivid demonstration of this escalatory dynamic.

KEYWORDS:

• Terrorism
• Iran
• Hezbollah
• Israel
• Saudi Arabia
• Yemen
• Houthis
• state-sponsored terrorism
• non-state actors
• conflict escalation

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

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2. Saideman, “Discrimination in International Relations”; Salehyan, “Transnational Rebels”; and Saideman, The Ties that Divide.

3. Salehyan, “No Shelter Here”.

4. Diehl and Goertz, War and Peace; and Senese and Vasquez, The Steps to War.

5. Piazza, “Incubators of Terror”.

6. Sambanis, “Terrorism and Civil War”.

7. Maoz and San-Akca, “Rivalry and State Support”.

8. O’brien, “Foreign Policy Crises”.

9. Maoz and Mor, Bound by Struggle, 32–47.

10. Huth, Standing Your Ground.

11. Laqueur, “Postmodern”.

12. Findley, Piazza, and Young, “Games Rivals Play”.

13. Sobek and Braithwaite, “Victim of Success”.

14. Dassel and Reinhardt, “Domestic Strife”.

15. Nelson, “Pakistani President”.

16. Byman, Deadly Connections, 219–58.

17. Regan, Civil Wars and Foreign Powers.

18. Karsh, The Iran–Iraq War, 14, 89.

19. Freedman and Karsh, The Gulf Conflict 1990–91.

20. Pearlman and Atzili, Triadic Coercion.

21. Seale, Asad of Syria.

22. Hashim, “Pakistan shoots”.

23. Findley and Teo, “Rethinking Third-Party Interventions”.

24. Fearon and Laitain, “Ethnicity, Insurgency”; and Woodwell, “Unwelcome neighbor ”.

25. Bapat, “The Escalation of Terrorism”.

26. World Bank, 2019.

27. Carter, “The Strategy”.

28. See note 26 above.

29. Patten, “Taking advantage of insurgencies”.

30. Ranstorp, Hizb’Allah in Lebanon, 38; and DeVore and Stähli, “Explaining Hezbollah’s Effectiveness”.

31. Byman, A High Price.

32. Cordesman, The Israeli-Palestinian War, 39; Levinson, “South Lebanon”; and Hamzeh, In the Path.

33. Levitt, “Inside Hezbollah’s”.

34. Blanford, Warriors of God, 203.

35. Cordesman and Sullivan, Lessons, 4; Harel and Issacharoff, 34 Days, 100; Blanford, “Deconstructing Hizbullah’s surprise”; and Levinson, “Rubber match”.

36. Rugh, “Problems in Yemen”; and Ehteshami, “Saudi Arabia”.

37. Brandt, Tribes and Politics in Yemen; and Zimmerman, Signalling Saudi Arabia.

38. Khalidi, “The Destruction of Yemen”; Nissenbaum, “U.S. Moves to Stem Iran”; Clausen, “Justifying military intervention”; and Rugh, “Problems in Yemen”.

39. Rubin, “Iran’s Missiles”.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Akbar Khan

Akbar Khan is a Ph.D. candidate in International Relations in the Zhou Enlai School of Government at Nankai University China, Tianjin.

Han Zhaoying

Han Zhaoying is Professor of International Relations in the Zhou Enlai School of Government at Nankai University China, Tianjin.