Turnout, preferential voting and vote flows in the E.U. election¹

ABSTRACT

This article aims at focusing on four main features of the European elections that were held on 26 May 2019. Firstly, it analyses electoral turnout, both from a diachronic and a geographical point of view. Secondly, it presents electoral data and identifies winners and losers of the vote, not only by comparing 2019 E.U. results to 2014 E.U. results and 2018 political results, but especially focusing on the territorial dimension of electoral dynamics. Thirdly, it discusses flows of vote in five Italian cities (Brescia, Turin, Florence, Naples, Palermo), in order to give a clearer picture of how citizens (potentially) changed their electoral preferences from 2018 to 2019. Fourthly, it focuses on preferential vote, with the aim of distinguishing between parties characterized by ‘micro-personalization’ and ‘macro-personalization’. On many of these aspects, the 2019 European elections in Italy can be understood on the basis of the well-known ‘second-order election theory’. Yet, there are also interesting empirical findings that deviate from this pattern, among which the electoral success of the League – one of the two parties in government at the moment of the elections – merits further attention and can be mostly explained on the basis of government political action. That same electoral success, in addition, represented one of the causes that led to the end of the so-called yellow-green government in August 2019.

RIASSUNTO

Questo articolo si concentra su quattro aspetti principali delle elezioni europee che si sono svolte il 26 maggio 2019. In primo luogo, analizza la partecipazione elettorale, sia dal punto di vista diacronico che territoriale. In secondo luogo, presenta i dati elettorali e identifica i vincitori e i perdenti del voto, non soltanto confrontando i risultati delle elezioni europee del 2019 con i risultati di quelle del 2014 e delle politiche del 2018, ma soprattutto concentrandosi sulla dimensione territoriale delle dinamiche elettorali. In terzo luogo, discute i flussi di voto in cinque città italiane (Brescia, Torino, Firenze, Napoli, Palermo), al fine di fornire un quadro più chiaro di come i cittadini hanno (potenzialmente) cambiato le loro preferenze elettorali tra il 2018 e il 2019. In quarto luogo, si concentra sul voto di preferenza, con l’obiettivo di distinguere i partiti caratterizzati da ‘micro-personalizzazione’ e da ‘macro-personalizzazione’. Su molti di questi aspetti, le elezioni europee del 2019 in Italia possono essere ben comprese sulla base della nota ‘teoria delle elezioni di secondo ordine’. Tuttavia, ci sono anche interessanti evidenze empiriche che si discostano da questo modello, tra le quali il successo elettorale della Lega – uno dei due partiti al governo al momento delle elezioni – merita ulteriore attenzione e può essere principalmente spiegato sulla base dell’azione politica dell’esecutivo. Quello stesso successo elettorale, inoltre, ha rappresentato una delle cause che hanno portato alla fine del cosiddetto governo giallo verde ad agosto 2019.

KEYWORDS:

• Italian politics
• E.U. elections
• Turnout
• Flows of vote
• Preferential voting

PAROLE CHIAVE:

• Politica italiana
• Elezioni europee
• Partecipazione
• Flussi di voto
• Voto di preferenza

Notes

1. Although this article is the result of a joint research effort of the two authors, Andrea Pritoni wrote Sections 1, 2 and 3, while Rinaldo Vignati wrote Sections 4, 5 and 6.

2. The difference between a ‘second-order’ election and a ‘second-rate’ election is based on the fact that the former lacks saliency, whereas the latter lacks a policy linkage, as the connection between the voters’ choices and policies that will be produced is missing.

3. In Italy, the first European elections took place in 1979.

4. National political elections were held in 2018, 4 of March.

5. We refer to the abrogation, in 1993, of d.p.r. (decree of the President of Republic) no. 361/1957, which stated that voting was compulsory for Italian citizens.

6. With respect to territorial differences on electoral turnout, Italy has for a long time been characterized by a very heterogeneous territorial distribution of electoral turnout, especially if we compare Northern and Central regions, on the one hand, and Southern regions, on the other hand. While declining electoral turnout has typified the whole peninsula in the last 50 years, in particular Southern Italy experienced the highest percentages of non-vote, especially since the end of the 1980s (De Luca 1997).

7. Regional elections in Abruzzo took place on 2019, 10 of February.

8. Regional elections in Sardinia took place on 2019, 24 of February.

9. The only Italian region where the League does not exceed the 20 per cent of votes is Campania, reaching 19.2 per cent.

10. The study, authored by M. Valbruzzi and R. Vignati, can be downloaded here: http://www.cattaneo.org/2019/05/29/e-se-domenica-avessimo-votato-per-il-parlamento-italiano/

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Andrea Pritoni

Andrea Pritoni is Associate Professor of Political Science in the Department of Cultures, Politics and Society at the University of Turin (Italy). He also collaborates with the Istituto Carlo Cattaneo as the Coordinator of the Editorial Committee of ‘Politica in Italia’. His main research interests are oriented towards Italian politics (governments and parties), comparative interest group politics and public policy analysis (with a particular focus on labour market and higher education policy). He has recently published articles on ‘Regulation and Governance’ (2019), ‘Journal of Public Policy’ (2019), ‘European Union Politics’ (2019), ‘Comparative European Politics’ (2017) and ‘Italian Political Science Review’ (2017; 2018), as well as books on the Italian Association of Banks (2015), on the recent Italian constitutional referendum (2017) and on the Italian interest system between the First and the Second Republic (2017).E-mail address: [email protected] - Dipartimento di Culture Politica e Società, Università degli Studi di TorinoLungo Dora Siena 100, 10153 Torino

Rinaldo Vignati

Rinaldo Vignati is postdoctoral research fellow at the University of Bologna. He collaborates with the Istituto Carlo Cattaneo of Bologna, where he coordinates, with Marco Valbruzzi, the activities of the Group on electoral studies. His main research interests are electoral behaviour, political parties, public opinion. He has published articles on ‘Contemporary Italian politics’, ‘South European society and politics’, ‘International Spectator’ and other journals. He is co-editor of La prova del No (Rubbettino, 2017) and Il vicolo cieco (Il Mulino, 2018) and author of Indro Montanelli e il cinema (Mimesis, 2019).E-mail address: [email protected] - Dipartimento di Scienze Politiche e Sociali - Strada Maggiore 45, 40125 – Bologna