The 2019 European Elections: a ‘second-order’ vote with ‘first-order’ effects

ABSTRACT

In this article we provide a general interpretation of the results of the 2019 elections of the European Parliament in Italy. The Italian case contains several elements that are, at the same time, ambivalent and interesting, especially if observed in a larger, European-wide comparative perspective. Besides a general interpretation of the vote for the European Parliament, the article discuss also the consequences of the elections results for the transformations of the Italian party system and the patterns of government formation in a context characterized by an increasing process of political integration in a multilevel political system. Finally, we discuss the trend of Euroscepticism in the Italian public opinion and the role played by radical or ‘sovranist’ parties in promoting a feeling of distrust or detachment towards the European Union.

RIASSUNTO

In questo articolo viene offerta un’interpretazione generale dei risultati delle elezioni per il Parlamento europeo in Italia. Il caso italiano contiene, infatti, molti elementi che si rivelano, allo stesso, tempo ambivalente e interessanti, soprattutto se osservati in una prospettiva Europea di tipo comparato. Oltre a una interpretazione del voto per il Parlamento europeo, l’articolo discute anche le conseguenze delle elezioni sulle trasformazioni nel sistema partitico italiano e sulle modalità di formazione dei governi all’interno di un contesto caratterizzato da un crescente processo di integrazione politica in un assetto istituzionale multilivello. Infine, sarà discussa la tendenza dell’euroscetticismo nell’opinione pubblica italiana e il ruolo svolto dai partiti radicali o ‘sovranisti’ nel promuovere un sentimento di sfiducia o distacco verso l’Unione Europea.

KEYWORDS:

• European elections
• voting behaviour
• government formation
• European integration
• Euroscepticism

PAROLE CHIAVE:

• Elezioni europee
• comportamento elettorale
• formazione del governo
• Integrazione europea
• Euroscetticismo

Notes

1. Electoral volatility is defined as the sum of the absolute differences in party vote percentages between two consecutive elections, divided by two (Pedersen 1979; Bartolini and Mair 1990).

2. It is likely that, in the light of the termination of the centre-right government composed by M.5.S. and League and the decision to support the candidacy of the Ursula von der Leyen as president of the E.U. Commission, the party will probably negotiate its affiliation in the European Parliament with the group of the Greens or the liberal Renew Europe.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Gianfranco Pasquino

Gianfranco Pasquino is Emeritus Professor of Political Science at the University of Bologna and Fellow of the Accademia dei Lincei. He has co-edited the Oxford Handbook of Italian Politics (2015) and Italy Transformed (2018). His most recent book is Bobbio e Sartori. Capire e cambiare la politica (2019). John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, via Beniamino Andreatta, 3 - 40126 Bologna, Italy

Marco Valbruzzi

Marco Valbruzzi is Assistant Professor at the University of Naples Federico II and Adjunct Instructor at the Gonzaga University in Florence. Since 2017, he is also the coordinator of the Electoral research unit of the Carlo Cattaneo Institute Research Foundation. He has co-edited (with R. Vignati) Il vicolo cieco. Le elezioni del 4 marzo 2018 (Il Mulino, 2018). His most recent book, with G. Pasquino, is A Changing Republic. Politics and Democracy in Italy (Epoké, 2015).  University of Naples Federico II, Department of Social Sciences, Vico Monte della Pietà, 1 Napoli. [email protected]