Abstract
Achieving sustainable development of new dwellings in growing cities is a major challenge for urban managers. This paper presents and demonstrates a quantitative methodology for assessing the sustainability of urban residential development by directly comparing household demand and dwelling supply. Sustainability is an international concern because of the rapid urbanization that is a feature of our times, and it is increasingly reflected in the metropolitan planning strategies that inform the practices of urban managers. In societies with rhetorical support for sustainability but a reluctance to embrace the practical repercussions, the method promotes evidence-based analysis and a transparent approach to help determine whether specific sustainability objectives are being achieved. The approach is to review the demographic structure, urban governance and strategic planning framework contextualizing residential development before measuring and comparing demand and supply and assessing the implications of any mismatch between development outcomes and strategic objectives. Summary findings from an application of the method to a case study in Melbourne show that the city's residential development remains largely fixed in a pattern established in the nineteenth century, and that neither the demographic basis of household demand nor policy frameworks seem to have effectively influenced recent development outcomes. A range of implications for social, economic and environmental sustainability are identified before possible causes of the failure to implement policy are identified and potential resolutions suggested.
Notes
The CNOS states that couples, children under five or children under 18 of the same sex may share a bedroom, although no more than two people should share a bedroom; and that a child aged 5–17 should not share a bedroom with a child under five of the opposite sex, and any other children and single adults aged 18 or over should not share a bedroom.
Given the focus on methodology and space restrictions, results for Melbourne's forecast future are omitted, the supply and demand variables of household income and dwelling cost are not discussed, and there is only limited attention to dwelling forms and household composition.
We understand that dwelling diversity is a necessary condition to facilitate the efficient use of dwelling stock, but may not be a sufficient condition because of economic factors such as transaction costs, which are outside the scope of this paper.