The rise of the ‘China Model’ and ‘Beijing Consensus’: evidence of authoritarian diffusion?

Abstract

The rise of authoritarian great powers has raised questions about the dominance of the liberal democratic model and has led to a perception that the relative balance between democracy and authoritarianism is shifting. Consequently, there is increasing interest in and concerns about the diffusion of alternative ‘models’ of political and economic development. Given that China's impressive economic development has led to growing military strength and geopolitical prestige, evaluating perceptions of the legitimacy, effectiveness, and applicability of that country's model of ‘illiberal capitalism’ is a good place to start. This paper evaluates whether the ‘China Model’ or ‘Beijing Consensus' is gaining traction internationally through a content analysis of eight years of US and non-US media sources. It finds that concerns about the beginnings of an anti-democratic ‘reverse wave’ are exaggerated and that at the present time there does not appear to be a decisive shift in favour of a model of authoritarian-capitalism.

Keywords:

• authoritarian capitalism
• Beijing Consensus
• China
• models of capitalism
• modernization

Notes

Some form of Islamic-based governing structure is a potential rival to the liberal-democratic model amongst some states, but its geographic range is obviously limited by religion.

Ambrosio (2010) also identified a number of ‘contributing factors’ (geography, linkage, international organizations, great power prestige, and reference groups) which can reinforce or enhance the relative appropriateness and effectiveness of authoritarian diffusion. For purposes of this paper and the content analysis, the focus will be on the two broader mechanisms.

Diffusion theory allows for laggards, who either adopt an idea or practice very late, as well as for those who do not adopt at all. North Korea and Cuba are two examples of states which are seen as Soviet-style anachronisms.

Additional charts and data are available from the author upon request.

The logic here is that those who wish to see these countries democratize advocate on behalf of the CM/BC in hopes that economic changes will eventually lead to political changes.

This statement is ironic, given the fact that he sang the praises of the CM/BC the previous year.

This argument is connected to the traditional belief in the link between economic and political development that has been dominant in modernization theory. Of course, the successes of the CM/BC has already begun to call that into question.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Thomas Ambrosio

Thomas Ambrosio is an Associate Professor of Political Science at North Dakota State University, USA. He is the author of three books and two edited books, as well as over a dozen articles and book chapters. His current research interest includes the stability of authoritarianism in the former Soviet Union.