Perilous presidentialism or precarious power-sharing? Hybrid regime dynamics in Myanmar

ABSTRACT

Although Myanmar's transition from military rule has been thoroughly studied, research into the evolving presidential system is lacking. This article maps Myanmar's unique hybrid form of presidentialism and characterises executive-legislative relations between 2012 and 2017. It not only examines institutions themselves but also explores how actors within them have acted and shifted strategically. It is argued that elite-behaviour determines how institutions work. Myanmar's 2008 constitution imposed by the military established a hybrid presidential system with a formally powerful president. The first phase under President Thein Sein saw competitive yet cooperative executive-legislative relations between President Thein Sein and the ambitious House Speaker Shwe Mann, both members of the former military regime. However, this power-sharing arrangement of former members of the military regime became increasingly fragile with the rise of Aung San Suu Kyi and her attempt to change the 2008 constitution. After the election victory of the National League for Democracy (NLD) and the passage of the state counsellor law, a de facto semi-presidential system was established – Burmese style. Since then, the frontline has been between the civilian and military parts of the administration.

KEYWORDS:

• Presidentialism
• power-sharing
• Myanmar

Acknowledgements

I would like to thank Tinzar Htun and Aung Aung Hlaing for their invaluable research assistance during and after my research stay in Myanmar. Also, I would like to thank the National Democratic Institute (NDI) for organising a discussion with parliamentarians in November 2015.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Note on contributor

Marco Bünte is Associate Professor at Monash University, Malaysia Campus. His work focuses on questions of democratisation and authoritarian resilience. He has published widely on Southeast Asian politics, in international outlets such as Armed Forces and Society, Asian Survey, Journal of Contemporary Asia and Contemporary Southeast Asia. He is the editor of Politics and Constitutions in Southeast Asia (with B. Dressel) and ‘The Crisis of Democratic Governance in Southeast Asia’ (with A. Croissant).

Notes

1. By responsible to the legislature, Elgie means that the legislature has the power to refuse to approve the cabinet in an investiture vote and/or to topple the cabinet through a vote of confidence/no confidence. If the final decision for this lies with the president, then Elgie speaks of presidentialism.

2. For the opposing view see Pereira and Melo (2012).

3. The constitutional reforms in 2004 moved the system to a Presidential System, in which the president was directly elected.

4. Observers feared in the beginning that Thein Sein could turn out to be a mere puppet of long-term junta chief Senior General Than Shwe.

5. Although Thein Sein was the Chairman of the part at the time of its formation, he had to step down on becoming President, as required by the Constitution. Vice-chairman Shwe Mann became Chairman.

6. Industry Minister Soe Thein, Railway Minister Aung Min and Zaw Min.

7. Another reason for the party coup was that Shwe Mann refused to place 150 military officers on the USDP party list for the November 2015 elections. Among those rejected were Thein Sein's and Min Aung Hlaing's supporters (Zin Min, 2016).

8. It would be only be a ‘proper’ semi-presidential system if the president were directly elected. Since the system was not a ‘pure’ presidential system before the, it is not a pure ‘semi-presidential system’ with this adaptation either.

9. Land grabbing is a major problem in the country. The military has confiscated a huge amount of land to expand industrial zones, build factories or barracks. Cronies with close connections to the military have profited from their links to military generals.

10. A different reading sees her silence as compliance with ethno-nationalist Buddhist groups, who consider Rohingya illegal migrants.

11. The NLD won 80% of the contested seats. The military has a representation of 25%.