Incumbent and opposition popular support and boycotts in authoritarian and hybrid regimes in Africa, the Middle East and beyond

ABSTRACT

Variation in election boycotts in Africa and the Middle East raise the question of the factors that influence the likelihood of boycotts. Examining this dynamic in Africa, the Middle East and around the globe, we explore one possible factor influencing national election boycotts: the relative level of popular support between the regime and opposition. Utilising the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) dataset, we find that when the regime has greater popular support than the opposition, the likelihood of major boycotts is low. In contrast, when the opposition has more popular support than the regime at the point of election, the likelihood of boycotts increases. These findings highlight the importance of publicly observable levels of support as a means for opposition parties to gauge the possible payoff for boycotting, particularly in authoritarian and hybrid regimes where lack of transparency creates uncertainty regarding other sources of regime strength or weakness.

KEYWORDS:

• Election boycotts
• opposition strength
• hybrid regimes
• Africa
• MENA

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Notes on contributors

William Hatungimana

William Hatungimana is a visiting assistant professor in political science at Oklahoma State University. He received his PhD in political science from the University of Kansas in 2022. He has authored or co-authored articles in various journals including Democratisation, National Identities, Ethnic and Racial Studies the Journal of Modern African Studies, among others.

F. Michael Wuthrich

F. Michael Wuthrich is an associate professor of political science and the associate director of the Center for Global and International Studies at the University of Kansas. He received his PhD in political science from Bilkent University in Ankara, Türkiye. Among numerous articles, he is the author of 'National Election in Turkey: People, Politics, and the Party System' (Syracuse University Press, 2015) and a co-author of 'Beyond Piety and Politics: Religion, Social Relations, and Public Preferences in the Middle East and North Africa' (Indiana University Press, 2022) with Sabri Ciftci and Ammar Shamaileh.