The 2012 Elections in Mexico: The Birth of a Consolidated Federal Democracy?

Abstract

In 2012, the simultaneous elections at the federal, state and municipal levels in Mexico reopened the debate about the path of democratic consolidation in the country. With the return of the Revolutionary Institutional Party to the presidency in 2013, there are renewed signs that Mexican democratic consolidation is underway. Particularly important in this process is that the 2012 gubernatorial and mayoral elections have been more competitive, resulting in higher political alternation in power between political parties. Under a changing subnational political context, there are indications that subnational politicians are no longer under the shadow of a dominant party system. As a more consolidated federal democracy, the political landscape in Mexico has become more complex.

Key Words:

• Mexico
• federalism
• democratic consolidation
• intergovernmental relations

Acknowledgement

The authors wish to thank Francisco Paoli Bolio, Valentina Romanova, Luz Marina Arias, and Guadalupe Paz for their valuable suggestions and comments. The usual disclaimer applies.

Notes

¹ The fourth presidential candidate was Gabriel Quadri of the New Alliance Party (PANAL), who obtained 2.29% of the votes.

² López Obrador campaigned in the 2006 presidential race under the slogan “For the Good of All, Above All the Poor”, calling himself “the Little Ray of Hope”.

³ As an illustration of Vázquez Mota's lack of internal party support, former Mexican president (2000–2006) and member of the PAN, Vicente Fox, declared during the campaign his preference for the PRI candidate.

⁴ The runner-up has been grabbing a higher percentage of the votes since 1988. Another important trend is that in all the presidential elections since 1994, the winning party has received less than 50% of the votes.

⁵ None the less, opinion polls carried out by School of Public Administration and Public Policy gave an advantage of more than 10% to the runner-up PRI candidate.