Ebb tide in blue: Recent sub-national elections in the Australian federation

ABSTRACT

This article analyses the extent and nature of nationalization of state and territory elections in Australia, both in terms of how similar state and territory voting patterns are to federal results, as well as ‘second-order’ effects that indicate how much dissatisfaction with the existing federal government spills over into state and territory elections. We include assessments of campaign issues and impacts in order to see how far voters hold both federal and state and territory governments accountable. While we find both similarities in voting patterns between the two tiers and small second-order effects in the regions, we argue that swings were linked to national policy paralysis in the face of major issues that impacted differently across sub-national electorates. Coalition decline was exacerbated by leadership instability and increasing concern by its parliamentarians at their fading political popularity.

KEYWORDS:

• Australia
• regional
• sub-national elections
• second-order
• swings

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

ORCID

Dain Bolwell http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3255-0632

Richard Eccleston http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4094-1780

Notes

1 Although voter turnout at the last federal election in 2016 was 91.0%, the lowest point since the introduction of compulsory voting in 1925. A typical turnout is about 95% (Barber 2017, 147).

2 However, following a referendum, Queensland will move to fixed four-year terms from 2018.

3 Except in Tasmania, which holds separate staggered upper house elections for either two or three seats each year.

4 SA-BEST, founded in 2017 by Nick Xenophon became the state-based partner to his Nick Xenophon Team party, which had three members in the Senate and one in the House of representatives, all from South Australia. Xenophon subsequently resigned from the Senate to contest the state election due in March 2018.

5 Between 50.27% in 1903 and 78.30% in 1917 federally, 69% in 1910 and less than 20% in 1920 in New South Wales elections, for example.

6 Based on figures for the period 1984–2016.

7 Assessment based on scrutiny of print and electronic media over the period by the authors. The selection does not imply there were no other important issues, such as education, leadership changes and healthcare, for example.

8 The GST ads 10% to the price of most items except fresh food.

9 The survey result was 61.6% in favour, and was carried in all states and territories. Participation was voluntary and there was a 79.5% return (ABS 10 November 2017).

10 A double dissolution election is where both the House of Representatives and the whole Senate together face elections for every seat.

11 Including sacking 14 000 public servants in his first budget (Taylor 2015).

12 The six incumbent WA Senate seats were three Liberal, two Labor and one Green resulting from the 2010 election. Three Liberal, one Labor, one Green, and one Palmer United Party (PUP) were elected at the special 2014 election.