Transition to subnational democracy: Kenya’s 2017 presidential and gubernatorial elections

ABSTRACT

Perceptions of the legitimacy of the 2017 subnational elections in Kenya have been bound-up with perceptions of the presidential race, which was nullified by the Supreme Court, casting doubt on the results of subnational elections held on the same day. I conduct a nationally representative survey on the way citizens voted on election day, akin to an exit-poll of Kenya's 2017 elections, and find that the survey responses match with the electoral commission's announcement of results. I additionally overview all court cases disputing the 2017 gubernatorial results and again find no reason to reject the electoral commission's pronouncement of results. Based on the evidence provided I argue that the Supreme Court nullification of the presidential vote does not cast doubt on the accuracy of the gubernatorial vote. The findings point to a strong and robust democratization underway at the subnational level in Kenya.

KEYWORDS:

• Africa
• elections
• Kenya
• devolution
• democracy

Acknowledgements

I would like to acknowledge the support and advice of Clionadh Raleigh at the University of Sussex and especially the support of her consolidator grant from the European Union Horizon 2020 (European Research Council, grant no. 726504), which has made this research possible. For funding the nationally representative surveys, I am grateful for the assistance of the Global Challenges Research Fund (reference no. 0005220). The surveys were organised with the help of Tom Wolf and Nicholas Mwenda, together with their wonderful team at IPSOS Kenya. I would also like to thank Mercy Akoth at the University of Oxford and Brian Kimetto at Strathmore University for helpful research assistance.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 In January 2018, the name of the ministry was changed to ‘Ministry of Devolution and ASALs [Arid and Semi-Arid Lands]’.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by H2020 European Research Council [Grant Number 726504] and Global Challenges Research Fund [Grant Number 0005220].