When faced with elite polarization, citizens take sides: The 2017 election in Catalonia

ABSTRACT

There is considerable evidence that elite polarization influences ordinary citizens. However, existing research ignores moderate citizens in conflicts opposing elites. We consider the exceptional election held in Catalonia in December 2017 following a period of intense conflict surrounding an illegal independence referendum. We assess the reactions of moderate voters to the referendum conflict. We find that many of them, despite their nuanced positions in the broader conflict, took clear positions in response to the increased polarization between pro- and anti-secessionist elites, which led them to shift their votes to parties with clearer and more extreme positions in the conflict. We conclude that elite polarization forces moderates to take sides.

KEYWORDS:

• Polarization
• nationalism
• Secessionism
• conflict
• voting behaviour
• Spain
• Catalonia

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 To our knowledge, this is the only survey that was run specifically in the context of the election and that included questions on independence.

2 We got vote choice from 87.1% of respondents. CIS obtained the same information from 86.2% of those who claimed to have voted (or 77.7% of all respondents). Figures A2 to A4 compare the distributions of key demographics in our survey and in the CIS

3 For all Catalan election results, see: http://governacio.gencat.cat/ca/pgov_ambits_d_actuacio/pgov_eleccions/pgov_dades_electorals/.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by Fonds de Recherche du Québec-Société et Culture [grant number 258580] and Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada [grant number 412-009-1004].