The 2019 provincial elections in Turkey: AKP’s struggle to retain power vis-a-vis a revitalized CHP

ABSTRACT

The March 2019 provincial and municipal elections in Turkey consolidated a two-bloc system consisting of an AKP-led alliance in favour of a presidential system and an alliance headed by the CHP which is against a presidential system. An urban–rural cleavage underlies and increases the polarization among Turkey’s voters. The CHP has gained control over the wealthy and populous metropolitan municipalities whereas the AKP still holds majorities in the provincial assemblies. The 2019 local elections also highlight the increasing reliance of the AKP on the MHP to win absolute majorities. This gives the opposition parties hope that they may overcome AKP’s electoral dominance in the national parliament as well as in the provincial and municipal assemblies.

KEYWORDS:

• Provincial elections
• bipolar party system
• electoral alliances
• presidentialism
• Turkey

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 The ‘Turkish-Islamic Synthesis’was originally formulated by the right-wing nationalist Intellectual Hearths (Aydınlar Ocakları) in the 1970s, the branch of extreme nationalist MHP, emphasizing the combination of Turkish nationalism with conservative Islamist values. With the People’s Alliance formed between pro-Islamist party AKP and nationalist party MHP, when they got the majority in the parliament, this ideology also came to power.

2 Because ‘mother tongue’ has not been included in the census questions since 1965, there is no common projectory on the ethnic distribution of the population. Following the start of the Syrian Civil War in 2011, more than 3 million Syrian Arabs immigrated to Turkey. However, because most do not have citizenship, their impact on the elections is minor.

3 In this article, zero-sum game refers to a situation in which each electoral bloc’s gain or loss of utility is exactly perceived by the parties and voters as the losses or gains of the utility of the other bloc.

4 Great Union Party (BBP), a small partner of the People’s Alliance, had 18 MP candidates nominated from AKP’s electoral list; however, because most of them were nominated from among the ranks that have no chance for election, only one of them from Ankara was elected.

5 After the 2014 local elections, the AKP government assigned trustees to 96 of the 102 municipalities that were under the control of a Kurdish party, the Democratic Regions Party (Demokratik Bögeler Partisi/DBP).

6 According to this research, 72% of CHP’s voters, 55% of MHP’s, 49% of AKP’s, and 47% of HPD’s voters think Syrian refugees are harming the Turkish economy. The answers to the question, “What is the biggest problem of Turkey?” is listed as 35.7% economy-unemployment; 20% Kurdish issue; 14.7% presidential system; 10.6% lack of democracy; 6.6% current situation of the legal system; 6.3% Gulenist terrorist organization; 3.8% the government; 1.6% state of conflict; and violence. 9.3% of the participants mentioned Turkey’s Syrian politics as a secondary problem.