A Resurgent Presidency? Portuguese Semi-Presidentialism and the 2016 Elections

Abstract

This article analyses the Portuguese presidential elections of January 2016, setting these within the backdrop of recent semi-presidential practice in Portugal. The election took place in the context of an apparent hollowing of the presidency, a pattern that potentially reflects the bailout that marked most of the second term of the outgoing president, Cavaco Silva. This pattern also helps explain the second-order nature of this presidential election. Despite potentially being an ‘open’ election – in that the incumbent had reached term limits – the election was characterised by low citizen mobilisation, low partisan involvement and low competitiveness. The initial two months of the newly elected president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, suggests he is seeking to invert this hollowing pattern by mobilising popular support behind the presidency.

Keywords:

• Portugal
• presidential elections
• semi-presidentialism
• bailout
• Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa
• Cavaco Silva

Notes

1. Portugal asked for the €78 billion bailout in April 2011. Following the scheduled calendar, in May 2014 the country had a clean exit without further help from its international creditors. For more information on this see Alexandre, Aguiar-Conraria & Bação (2016).

2. For more on this, see https://www.publico.pt/politica/noticia/cavaco-reforma-do-banco-de-portugal-nao-vai-chegar-para-pagar-despesas-1529976.

3. The government ultimately survived this crisis and the CDS leader, Paulo Portas, remained in the government as deputy prime minister.

4. See Leston-Bandeira & Fernandes (2015) for an extensive account of the government formation process in Portugal.

5. Costa’s government is a minority executive, with the PS the only party represented in the ministerial composition. The Communist Party and the Left Bloc backed the investiture of the government. Without their support, Costa would have failed the investiture vote.

6. For further information on this communication by President Cavaco, see the Wall Street Journal: http://www.wsj.com/articles/portugal-president-reappoints-prime-minister-despite-lack-of-majority-1445544988.

7. In his last appearance as pundit on television, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa garnered 1.8 million viewers. This figure surpasses any of the televised presidential debates

8. The same happened in the past with former leader Carlos Carvalhas (presidential candidate in 1991) and with the current leader Jerónimo de Sousa (presidential candidate in 1996 and 2006).

9. Tino de Rans gained national visibility during the 1999 PS party congress, with an unorthodox (and, at points, unintentionally comical) speech broadcast on TV (the TV coverage of the speech is available online at: https://youtu.be/zQ5M5Ib5baM). He subsequently transferred this notoriety into a fairly regular presence in infotainment and reality TV shows.

10. For example, in 2006, Cavaco Silva spent €3.7 million in his election campaign for the presidency.

11. Data from retrieved from poll of polls available at the ‘Margens de Erro’ website (http://www.pedro-magalhaes.org/as-ultimas-sondagens-presidenciais/).

12. Essentially, the court ruled out that those MPs who benefited from a more generous pension scheme in the past could ‒ ex post ‒ be deprived of their acquired rights. For more on this, see http://www.dn.pt/portugal/interior/destaque--expoliticos-voltam-a-receber-subvencoes-vitalicias-sem-limites-4986635.html.