Leader Polarisation: Conflict and Change in the Italian Political System

ABSTRACT

Polarising issues, polarising narratives, polarising leaders: this is the picture suggested by Italian politics in the 2018–20 time-frame. The article introduces the concept of leader polarisation and suggests a Leader Polarisation Index (LPI) to trace the recent evolution of the Italian party system. After the 2018 general election, the Italian political space experienced rapid change marked by the weakening of tripolarism, the re-emergence of bipolarism and the rise of elite-driven polarisation. The analysis of voters’ perspective through use of survey data reveals the increasingly divisive role of the Lega’s leader, Matteo Salvini.

KEYWORDS:

• Party system
• political leaders
• polarisation
• personalisation
• Matteo Salvini
• political space
• M5S
• Lega

Acknowledgments

I wish to thank Demos & Pi and LaPolis (University of Urbino) for having provided the data used in the article. Special thanks go to the two anonymous reviewers and the journal editors, Anna Bosco and Susannah Verney, whose useful comments have significantly improved the article.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Supplementary material

Supplementary data for this article can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.1080/13608746.2020.1821464.

Notes

1. During the campaign, the independent Conte, a law professor at the University of Florence, had been indicated by the M5S as a member of a potential Di Maio cabinet.

2. Yellow (M5S) and green (Lega) were the traditional colours of the two government parties.

3. In statistical terms, the RLPI is twice the coefficient of variation.

4. FdI is the closest heir of the post-fascist Alleanza Nazionale (National Alliance, 1994–2009).

5. See Demos-LaPolis surveys: http://www.demos.it/atlante_politico.php.

6. During the Summer 2019 government crisis, Conte was able to strengthen his position and assume an anti-Salvini profile. Although not being a party member, he was seen by many as a potential future M5S leader.

7. After Renzi’s resignation, in the aftermath of the 2018 general election, the party had been led by Maurizio Martina – who was a candidate himself for the party leadership at the congress.

8. LeU was formed in December 2017 as a federation of left-wing parties, including Articolo Uno (Article One), founded in February 2017 by former PD secretaries and leading figures like Pier Luigi Bersani, Guglielmo Epifani and Massimo D’Alema, who had strongly clashed with Renzi.

9. Schadee, Segatti and Vezzoni (2019, p. 45) suggested a similar strategy, using ‘propensity to vote’ variables in their analyses. The authors argue this solution is preferable to the reconstruction of party space through issue positions, which might overlook the role of the categories of left and right in voting behaviour.

10. The PdL (Il Popolo della Libertà – The People of Freedom) (2009–13), which Silvio Berlusconi led, was a centre-right party formed by FI and AN.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Fabio Bordignon

Fabio Bordignon teaches Political Science at the University of Urbino Carlo Bo, where he carries out research at the Laboratory of Social and Political Studies. His main areas of interest are electoral behaviour and the personalisation of politics. Recent publications include: with Luigi Ceccarini and Ilvo Diamanti, Le divergenze parallele. L’Italia: dal voto devoto al voto liquido (Laterza 2018) and Il partito del capo. Da Berlusconi a Renzi (Maggioli 2014).