Birth pangs or a honeymoon from hell? The long annus horribilis for Welsh devolution, 1998–2000

ABSTRACT

2024 marks twenty-five years since the first elections to, and meeting of, the National Assembly for Wales. The Assembly had been established by the narrowest of margins at a referendum in 1997. However, supporters of devolution would have no honeymoon period. Instead, the period from Autumn 1998 to February 2000 marked what might almost be seen as a long annus horribilis for Welsh devolution. This was a period of political instability, weak leadership and partisan infighting, all of which threatened the credibility of an already vulnerable devolution project. This article outlines how this saga began with the resignation of Ron Davies as Secretary of State for Wales in 1998 and only ended when Alun Michael, Davies’s successor as Welsh Labour leader and the first First Secretary of Wales, was forced out of office. This paper uses recently released archival materials to add new detail to this story, demonstrating the extent to which the UK Government orchestrated Michael’s rise to power, the clear sense of buyer’s remorse Michael’s backers would go on to experience and the frenzied discussions that went on within Whitehall during his beleaguered tenure as First Secretary.

KEYWORDS:

• Devolution
• Welsh politics
• British constitutional history

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1. The National Assembly for Wales’s name was legally changed to the Senedd Cymru—Welsh Parliament in 2020 as a result of the Senedd and Elections (Wales) Act 2020.

2. R. Wyn Jones and R. Scully (2015), ‘The Public Legitimacy of the NationalAssembly for Wales, The Journal of Legislative Studies, 21(4), p.516.

3. R. Wyn Jones and R. Scully (2003), “Coming home to Labour”? The 2003 Welsh Assembly Election, Regional and Federal Studies, 13(3), pp.126–128.

4. J. Bradbury and J. Mitchell (2001), Devolution: New Politics for Old? Parliamentary Affairs, 54 (2), p.262.

5. For an account of the devolution debates of the 1970s, see: A. Evans (2021). “Far reaching and perhaps destructive”? The 1974–79 Labour Government, devolution and the emergence, and failure, of the Scotland and Wales Bill, Parliaments, Estates and Representation, 41(1), pp. 42–61; A. Evans (2020), “The best-laid schemes o” mice an” men”? Proposals, planning, defeat, and legacy, of devolution in the 1970s, Parliamentary History, 39(3), pp. 462–480.

6. J. Mitchell (2009). Devolution in the UK, Manchester University Press: Manchester, 158.

7. Mitchell, Devolution in the UK, pp.155–160.

8. For more detailed discussions of the evolution of Welsh devolution in the 1990s, see: K. Morgan and G. Mungham (2000), Redesigning Democracy: The Making of the Welsh Assembly: The Welsh Labour Party and Devolution, Seren: Cardiff; R. Wyn Jones and R. Scully (2012), Wales Says Yes: Devolution and the 2011 Referendum, University of Wales Press: Cardiff, pp.39–41; O. Gay (19 May 1997), Wales and Devolution, House of Commons Library: Research Paper 97/60, pp.18–22.

9. R. Wyn Jones and B. Lewis (1999), The Welsh Devolution Referendum, Politics, 19(1), pp.37–46; L. McAllister (1998), The Welsh devolution referendum: definitely, maybe?, Parliamentary Affairs, 51(2), pp.149–165.

10. For more on this, see: A. Evans (forthcoming), “There will be no shortage of Cabinet ministers taking part in the Scottish referendum campaign. The same is not true in Wales”: New Labour, old struggles, and the advent of Welsh Devolution, Parliamentary History (due for publication in 2023).

11. For an entertaining, albeit partial, account of the leadership contest, see: R. Morgan (2017), Rhodri: A Political Life in Wales and Westminster, University of Wales Press: Cardiff, pp.121–125.

12. P. Hain (M. Ward ed.)(2015), The Hain Diaries 1998–2007, Biteback: London, p.10; T. Blair (2011), A Journey, arrow books: London, pp.217–218.

13. Bradbury and Mitchell, Devolution: New Politics for Old?, p.262.

14. Hain, The Hain Diaries, p.15.

15. Hain, The Hain Diaries, p.16.

16. Morgan, Rhodri: A Political Life in Wales and Westminster, pp.119, 126–128.

17. Morgan, Rhodri: A Political Life in Wales and Westminster, p.131.

18. Morgan, Rhodri: A Political Life in Wales and Westminster, p.131.

19. Morgan, Rhodri: A Political Life in Wales and Westminster, p.132.

20. Hain, The Hain Diaries, pp.15–19.

21. P. Hain (2012), Outside In, Biteback: London, p.210.

22. Morgan, Rhodri: A Political Life in Wales and Westminster, p.133.

23. TNA (The National Archives). PREM 49/1135. Memo from P McFadden to T. Blair, dated 18 December 1998.

24. According to Rhodri Morgan”s memoirs, on four occasions Labour delegates in the region refused the list that had been put forward by the party (Morgan, Rhodri: A Political Life in Wales and Westminster, p.150).

25. See note above 23. 1998.

26. See, for example: TNA. Memo from P. McFadden to T. Blair, dated 30 November 1998.

27. TNA. PREM 49/1135. Letter from A. Lapsley to S. Morgan, dated 20 November 1998.

28. TNA. PREM 49/1136. Memo from A. Lapsley to T. Blair, dated 11 January 1999.

29. TNA. PREM 49/1136.Memo from P. McFadden to T. Blair, dated 1 February 1999.

30. TNA. PREM 49/1136. Memo from P. McFadden to T. Blair, dated 1 February 1999.

31. TNA. PREM 49/1136. (22 February 1999) Memo on Alun Michael: lines to take.

32. Hain,Outside In, p.211.

33. TNA. PREM 49/1136. Memo from P. McFadden to T. Blair, dated 10 March 1999.

34. Ibid. 1999.

35. Ibid. 1999.

36. Ibid. 1999.

37. TNA. PREM 49/1136. Memo from P. McFadden to T. Blair, dated 18 March 1999.

38. Hain, Outside In, p.212.

39. R. Wyn Jones and D. Trystan (2000), A “quiet earthquake”: The First Elections to the National Assembly for Wales, CREST Working Paper No. 85, p.4.

40. Hain says that Ron Davies “under the delusion that he could still become First Minister” had approached him during election night to ask what the party”s Plan B was. Hain says that he did not disclose to Davies, who he believe had “lost the plot”, that a Plan B did exist which was to convene the party”s Welsh Executive Committee and install Morgan by acclamation (Hain, Outside In, p.212). Morgan, in his memoirs, expresses the belief that Wayne David, the Member of the European Parliament for South Wales Central and candidate for the Rhondda, would have been the establishment”s Plan B, although it is worth nothing that such a plan would not have lasted long during election night due to David”s surprise loss to Plaid Cymru in the Rhondda (Morgan, Rhodri: A Political Life in Wales and Westminster, p.158).

41. Morgan, Rhodri: A Political Life in Wales and Westminster, p.158.

42. The National Assembly for Wales (The Official Record), Wednesday 12 May 1999, pp. 3–26.

43. The National Assembly for Wales (The Official Record), Wednesday 12 May 1999, p.10.

44. The National Assembly for Wales (The Official Record), Wednesday 12 May 1999, pp.14–21.

45. The National Assembly for Wales (The Official Record), Wednesday 12 May 1999, p.13.

46. The National Assembly for Wales (The Official Record), Wednesday 12 May 1999, p.25.

47. Morgan, Rhodri: A Political Life in Wales and Westminster, p.159.

48. Morgan, Rhodri: A Political Life in Wales and Westminster p.161; P. Flynn (1999). Dragons Led By Poodles: Inside Story of a New Labour Stitch-up, Politico: London, pp.159–160.

49. Morgan, Rhodri: A Political Life in Wales and Westminster, p.162.

50. C. Jones (and A. Gibbard) (2020), Not Just Politics, Headline: London, pp.100–101.

51. The National Assembly for Wales (The Official Record), Wednesday 15 September 1999, p.12.

52. The National Assembly for Wales (The Official Record), Wednesday 15 September 1999, p.15.

53. The National Assembly for Wales (The Official Record), Wednesday 15 September 1999, pp.69, 86.

54. The National Assembly for Wales (The Official Record), Wednesday 13 October 1999, p.3.

55. TNA. PREM 1688. Memo from P. McFadden to T. Blair, dated 15 October 1999.

56. The National Assembly for Wales (The Official Record), Tuesday 19 October 1999.

57. A. Thomas and M. Laffin (2001), The first Welsh constitutional crisis, Public Policy and Administration, 16(1), p.21.

58. TNA. PREM 1688. Memo from P. McFadden to T. Blair, dated 3 November 1999.

59. Welsh Affairs Committee (2002), Objective 1 European Funding for Wales, Second Report of Session 2001–02, HC 520.

60. Thomas and Laffin, The first Welsh constitutional crisis, p.21.

61. TNA. PREM 49/1136. Memo from P. McFadden to T. Blair, dated 16 April 1999.

62. In a rather desperate letter to Alun Milburn, the Chief Secretary of the Treasury, Alun Michael described the section on Objective 1 as “the one serious point in the Plaid Cymru manifesto” (TNA. PREM 49/1136. Letter from A. Michael to A. Milburn, dated 15 April 1999).

63. Plaid Cymru 1999 Assembly Election manifesto, available via BBC News http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/static/events/wales_99/manifestos/plaidcymru.html (accessed 1 November 2022).

64. See note above 61. 1999.

65. Emphasising the party”s commitment to fiscal and economic prudence was a key pillar of New Labour”s political messaging and economic statecraft, particularly in the run-up to and immediate period after the 1997 General Election(see: M. Moran and E. Alexander (2000), The economic policy of New Labour, in, D. Coates and P. Lawler, New Labour in power, Manchester: Manchester University Press, pp.108–121).

66. See note above 61. 1999.

67. The National Assembly for Wales (The Official Record), Tuesday 2 November 1999, pp.17–19.

68. The National Assembly for Wales (The Official Record), Tuesday 2 November 1999, pp.19–21.

69. See note above 58. 1999.

70. PREM 1688. Memo from P. McFadden to T. Blair, dated 21 January 2000.

71. PREM 1688. Memo from J. Powell to T. Blair, dated 24 January 2000.

72. It should be noted that Jeremy Heywood offered a far less charitable take on this, arguing that “Wales needs to realise that they cannot simply expect other to pick up the Bill”, noting that it was “wrong to suggest that Objective 1 was thrust down the throats of an unwilling Welsh Office by Gordon Brown and Tony Blair.”

73. PREM 1688. Email exchanges between J. Heywood, O. Barder, J. Gallagher and P. McFadden, dated 27 and 28 January 2000.

74. PREM 1688. Memo from O. Barder to T. Blair, dated 28 January 2000.

75. PREM 1688. Memo from P. McFadden to T. Blair, dated 28 January 2000.

76. Ibid. 2000.

77. PREM 1688. Memo from P. McFadden to T. Blair, dated 4 February 2000.

78. PREM 1688. Letter from P. Murphy to T. Blair, dated 4 February 2000.

79. Hain, Outside In, p.212.

80. Morgan, 172–177.

81. Ibid. 177–178.

82. Thomas and Laffin, The first Welsh constitutional crisis, pp.21–29.

83. Ibid.

84. TNA. PREM 1688. Letter from A. Michael to R. Wilson, dated 14 February 2000.

85. The National Assembly for Wales (The Official Record), Tuesday 8 February 2000, pp.3–17.

86. The National Assembly for Wales (The Official Record), Tuesday 8 February 2000, pp.23–33.

87. Morgan, Rhodri: A Political Life in Wales and Westminster, p. 178.

88. Morgan, Rhodri: A Political Life in Wales and Westminster, p.179.

89. The National Assembly for Wales (The Official Record), Wednesday 9 February 2000, pp.17–20.

90. The National Assembly for Wales (The Official Record), Wednesday 9 February 2000, pp.21–23.

91. The National Assembly for Wales (The Official Record), Wednesday 9 February 2000, pp.23–26.

92. Morgan, Rhodri: A Political Life in Wales and Westminster, p179.

93. He also appeared to throw his speech in the direction of the Presiding Officer (Morgan, Rhodri: A Political Life in Wales and Westminster, p.179).

94. The National Assembly for Wales (The Official Record), Wednesday 9 February 2000, pp.31–32.

95. HC Deb (Hansard) 9 February 2000, Vol. 344, c.243–244.

96. HC Deb (Hansard) 9 February 2000, Vol. 344, cc.245–247.

97. Hain, Outside In, p.212.

98. Hain, Outside In, p.212; Jones, Not Just Politics, pp.100–102.

99. TNA PREM 1688. Letter from J. Gallagher to T. Blair, dated 28 March 2000; Letter from P. Murphy to T. Blair, dated 28 March 2000.

100. HM Treasury (July 2000), Prudent for a Purpose: Building Opportunity and Security for All—2000 Spending Review: New Public Spending Plans 2001–2004, Cm 4807, para. 5.20.

101. TNA PREM 1688. Memo from J. Powell to T. Blair, dated 11 February 2000.

102. TNA. PREM 1688. Memo from J. Powell to T. Blair, dated 15 March 2000.