Ethnic diversity and electoral democracy in Sudan before and after the Arab spring

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the impact of ethnic diversity on electoral democracy in Sudan, a nation grappling with ethnic, sectarian, and regional identity politics. Using a mixed-method approach, the study employs Time Series analysis from 1990 to 2019, followed by theoretical analysis to explore the relationship between ethnic diversity and electoral democracy. The framework of this study draws from relevant studies on this nexus, incorporating factors such as racial/ethnic voting motivations, corruption, institutional dynamics, conflict, and individual income. The study bridges a gap in the existing literature by providing insights into the mechanisms through which ethnic identities shape democratisation processes in the African region. The findings reveal an influence of ethnic diversity on electoral democracy, as evidenced by factors such as violent conflicts, political institutions, and economic inequality. Additionally, the study delves into contemporary implications of ethnic dynamics on democratic processes, particularly examining the military confrontations between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) since April 2023. The practical implications of this study lie in developing effective strategies to mitigate the political repercussions of ethnicity, thereby fostering a peaceful democratic transition. Therefore, the findings may not be readily applicable to other regions or nations with distinct historical, cultural, or geopolitical contexts that might influence the interplay between ethnic diversity and electoral democracy differently.

KEYWORDS:

• Sudan
• ethnic diversity
• electoral democracy
• democratisation
• election
• Arab spring

Acknowledgment

I extend my sincere gratitude to the Gulf Studies Center at Qatar University, the Observatory on Politics and Elections in the Arab and Muslim World (OPEMAM) at the Universidad Autónoma of Madrid, and the Sectarianism, Proxies, and De-Sectarianization project (SEPAD) at Lancaster University's Richardson Institute for providing an opportunity to present my research at the conference on ‘Understanding Electoral Politics and State-Society Relations in the Gulf, Middle East, and North Africa’ held on November 27, 2023.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 In 1994, mediation efforts were undertaken by the Inter-Governmental Agency on Drought and Development (IGADD), resulting in the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in Nairobi on 9 January 2005. The CPA aimed to address the conflict in Sudan and included provisions for the ‘Right of Self-Determination’ for the people of Southern Sudan. In 2011, an internationally supervised referendum was conducted to allow the people of Southern Sudan to choose between unity and secession. Additionally, another referendum was planned to resolve the dispute over the border region of Abyei (D'Agoôt, 2013, 65).

2 In August 2019, the Transitional Military Council (TMC) and the (FFC) reached an agreement on a Constitutional Declaration that would replace Sudan's 2005 Interim Constitution and govern the three-year transition period. This Constitutional Declaration emphasises a decentralized political system, ensuring that citizens can exercise their rights without facing discrimination based on factors such as race, religion, gender, regional affiliation, and other similar grounds.

3 The Juba Peace Agreement, signed on 3 October 2020, involved the Government of Sudan and the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF) alliance comprising armed movement factions and political organisations. This agreement aimed to further the peace process in Sudan and address the underlying causes of conflict (rewrite for academic purpose).