Trump sympathy in the Balkans: cross-border populist appeal

ABSTRACT

Do populist leaders tend to win support from the same kinds of people abroad as they do at home? Since we know public opinion can shape foreign policy, the answer is important for understanding populists’ potential to carry out their typically anti-establishment international agendas. We address this question through original surveys in three Southeast European EU-aspiring countries on one populist leader (US President Donald Trump), establishing that the answer is a qualified yes: It depends on geopolitical orientation. In Albania, where local elites are perceived to be aligned with American elites, Trump supporters stand out for the same dispositions linked to him in the US, including intolerance and Euroscepticism. But in Serbia, where the American elites opposed by Trump’s own populism are seen as opposed to Serbia’s own establishment, patterns are remarkably different: Trump sympathizers generally stand out for tolerance, support for the EU, and a general trust in politicians. In Kosovo, these differences collapse into its deep ethnic divide between Albanians and Serbs.

KEYWORDS:

• Populism
• Trumpism
• political behaviour
• international relations
• Europe
• Balkans

Acknowledgments

We are grateful for feedback from participants in the 8th UBT Annual International Conference of Political Science and International Relations (ICPSIR), Prishtinë, Kosovë, where an earlier draft was presented on 27 October 2019. For comments and support, we thank Liridon Grejçevci, Michael Gallagher, Timothy Johnson, Artan Mustafa, Blerim Reka, and Arian Starova, and the anonymous reviewers. For research assistance, we thank Emma Handel and George Washington University’s Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies (IERES). We express special appreciation to the following University for Business and Technology students who, after obtaining the appropriate training, conducted the enumeration for this study on a volunteer basis, covering their own expenses: Agnesa Morina, Aid Sekiraqa, Alban Fusha, Alejna Aqifi, Alisa Thaqi, Alma Matoshi, Andonesa Halili, Anduena Zeka, Aneta Sali, Antoneta Zhjeçi, Arbnore Lipovica, Ardita Beqiri, Ariana Orllati, Arjeta Hashani, Arxhenda Shijaku, Avdyl Mani, Biondina Abedini, Blenda Uruqi, Bleona Elezi, Diellza Kashtanjeva, Djellza Nuredini, Doan Tahirbegolli, Donjeta Elshani, Dorina Bakalli, Elona Pllana, Elona Sahiti, Erza Kqiku, Fatime Aliu, Fatlinda Dragobuzhda, Gojarta Grainca, Gremina Baca, Gresa Sheqiri, Ibadete Ramadani, Ilire Bytyqi, Kujtim Bytyqi, Lavdije Bislimi, Leonita Avdyli, Leonita Hamiti, Leonita Reka, Leonora Shala, Liri Kosovare Bllaca, Lulzim Rexha, Mërgim Rrecaj, Rina Fetahu, Shkelzen Musliu, Shkëlqim Mehmeti, Shqipdona Reshani, Sibevej Salihu, Teuta Agushi, Tringa Istrefi, Valdet Rexhepi, Violeta Maloku, and Zgjim Grajqevci. Eno Minka of Vodafone Albania helped with technical issues related to cellphone interviews in Albania. All lingering errors remain solely the authors’ responsibility.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Supplementary Material

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed here.

Notes

1. Details on survey methodology can be found in supplementary data (Appendix A).

2. See supplementary data (Appendix B) for information on weights and basic demographic breakdowns by country.

3. See supplementary data (Appendix F) for elaboration on our reasoning here.

4. See supplementary data (Appendix G) for specifics on each variable.

5. The analogues to this study’s Figures 1–3 calculated using logit can be found in supplementary data (Appendix C).

6. To avoid intractably small coefficients on the variable of age, which is finely gradated, and to facilitate easy comparison of the full magnitudes of all correlations involved, these are re-scaled to range from 0 to 1, where 0 is the minimum observed value in the dataset and 1 is the maximum observed value.