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ABSTRACT
In Mexico, marine finfish cage culture is envisioned as an economic alternative for coastal fishermen. Because research and outreach have not yet proved that this is profitable, assessing the investment through financial risk assessment and setting reference points for expected outcomes is useful. For Lutjanus guttatus, this research reports on a 10-year investment analysis of a pilot-scale, ongrowing four-cage module tested in Mazatlán, Mexico that incorporated a) hatchery-reared fry, b) species-specific feed and c) a second-generation prototype cage, all of them results of almost a decade of research. Two production scenarios were examined: Scenario I, with a high survival rate (90%–95%) and a low feed conversion ratio (FCR) (1.4–1.7), and Scenario II, with a low survival rate (67%–75%) and a high FCR (1.8–2.0). The net present value results are positive for Scenario I (mean = US$134,709, and a 95% probability interval (PI) [US$91,621; US$176,436]) and negative for Scenario II (mean = US-$79,082, 95% PI [US-$116,140; US-$42,054]). To identify feasibility improvement, reference points (threshold values) for survival, FCR, fry and feed costs were determined.