Interest in intermediate soft-classified maps in land change model validation: suitability versus transition potential

Abstract

This study compares two types of intermediate soft-classified maps. The first type uses land use/cover suitability maps based on a multi-criteria evaluation (MCE). The second type focuses on the transition potential between land use/cover categories based on a multi-layer perceptron (MLP). The concepts and methodological approaches are illustrated in a comparable manner using a Corine data set from the Murcia region (2300 km², Spain) in combination with maps of drivers that were created with two stochastic, discretely operating, commonly used tools (MCE in CA_MARKOV and MLP in Land Change Modeler). The importance of the different approaches and techniques for the obtained results is illustrated by comparing the specific characteristics of both approaches by validating the suitability versus transition potential maps to each other using a Spearman correlation matrix and, between the Corine maps, using classical ROC (receiver operating characteristic) statistics. Then, we propose a new use of ROC statistics to compare these intermediate soft-classified maps with their respective hard-classified maps of the models for each category. The validation of these results can be beneficial in choosing a suitable model and provide a better understanding of the implications of the different modeling steps and the advantages and limitations of the modeling tools.

Keywords:

• intermediate soft-classified maps
• suitability
• transition potential
• validation
• land change model

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the Spanish MINECO for supporting this work through the following project I + D + I: ‘Simulaciones geomáticas para modelizar dinámicas ambientales. Avances metodológicos y temáticos’. 2009–2012. BIA2008-00681.

Notes

1. 1. Descriptions of CA_MARKOV appear in Paegelow and Camacho (2005) and Mobaied et al. (2011). Kamusoko et al. (2009) and Shirley and Battaglia (2008) apply CA_MARKOV for future land change scenarios.

2. 2. An extensive description of the practical applications of LCM can be found in Aguejdad and Houet (2008) and Dang Khoi and Murayama (2010). LCM is used in Silva and Tagliani (2012) to obtain land use changes or ‘susceptibility to land change’ in a future scenario.

3. 3. A more developed comparison can be found in Paegelow and Camacho (2008) and Mas et al. (2011), who also refer to other models.

4. 4. MINECO, Spain, Project I + D + I ‘Simulaciones geomáticas para modelizar dinámicas ambientales. Avances metodológicos y temáticos’. 2009–2012. BIA2008-00681.