Assessing public transit performance using real-time data: spatiotemporal patterns of bus operation delays in Columbus, Ohio, USA

ABSTRACT

Public transit vehicles such as buses operate within shared transportation networks subject to dynamic conditions and disruptions such as traffic congestion. The operational delays caused by these conditions can propagate downstream through scheduled transit routes, affecting system performance beyond the initial delay. This paper develops an approach to measuring and assessing vehicle delay propagation in public transit systems. We fuse data on scheduled bus service with real-time vehicle location data to measure the originating, cascading and recovery locations of delay events across space with respect to time. We integrate the resulting patterns to construct stop-specific delay propagation networks. We also analyze the spatiotemporal patterns of propagating delays using parameters such as 1) transit line-based network distance, 2) total propagating delay size, and 3) distance decay. We apply our methodology using publicly available schedule and real-time location data from the Central Ohio Transit Authority (COTA) public bus system in Columbus, Ohio, USA. We find that delay initiation is spatially and temporally uneven, concentrating on specific stops in downtown and specific suburban locations. Core stops play a critical role in propagating delays to a wide range of connected stops, eventually having a disproportional impact on the on-time performance of the bus system.

KEYWORDS:

• Mobility
• urban applications
• public bus delay propagation
• public transport reliability assessment
• spatio-temporal data modelling

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. https://developers.google.com/transit/gtfs/reference/.

2. There might be some late passengers who would be doomed to miss their desired buses and hence have to wait until the next bus arrives if the transit system operates on time.

3. For example, COTA defines abnormal operation events as vehicles arriving more than 5 min late or early, with no threshold for the latter. This stricter standard for early arrivals intends to prevent that behavior.

4. As anecdotal evidence, COTA officials informed us that Wednesday is usually the busiest among the weekdays since more workers commute by bus then, while on other days there is more flexibility in workers’ commuting choices and hence the bus demand decreases.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Yongha Park

Yongha Park is currently a Research Fellow at Seoul National University, Korea. He has received his Ph.D. in Department of Geography at the Ohio State University. His research interests include GIS, transportation network, operational assessment, and accessibility.

Jerry Mount

Jerry Mount is an independent researcher. His research interests include GIS, context-aware navigation and routing, and ubiquitous computing.

Luyu Liu

Luyu Liu is a Masters student in the Department of Geography at The Ohio State University. His research involves urban computing, mass transport, and new transportation solutions. He also serves as an Research Associate in the Center of Urban and Regional Analysis (CURA) working on geo-visualization and regional analysis.

Ningchuan Xiao

Ningchuan Xiao is Professor in the Department of Geography at The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210. He is interested in a wide range of research topics in spatial data science, including computational methods, visualization, and spatial optimization.

Harvey J. Miller

Harvey J. Miller is the Bob and Mary Reusche Chair in Geographic Information Science, Professor of Geography and Director of the Center for Urban and Regional Analysis at The Ohio State University.  His research interests include GIScience, human mobility and sustainable transportation.