Benefits analysis of particulate matter control programs – a case study of Tokyo

Abstract

The objective of this case study was to assess economic benefits of past environmental policies of particulate matter (PM) in Tokyo by comparing observed pre‐control PM levels in 1975 and post‐control levels in 1998. The point estimates of the numbers of additional cases of avoided premature mortality and morbidity due to PM pollution control were (1) 3900 long‐term deaths in adults aged 30 years and older (population 5 098 000), (2) 4700 cases of chronic bronchitis in adults aged 30 years and older, (3) 7800 cases of in‐patient cardiovascular disease in adults aged 65 and older (population 1 281 942), (4) 3100 cases of in‐patient pneumonia in adults aged 65 and older, (5) 2500 cases of in‐patient chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in adults aged 65 and older, (6) 390 000 asthma attacks in asthmatics (population 450 000), and (7) 4500 cases of acute bronchitis in children aged 8–12 (population 300 300) during a one‐year period. The point estimate of medical costs in adults and children plus the cost of lost wages was a purchasing power parity‐adjusted $38 billion USD. Overall these results appear more likely to be underestimates than overestimates due to several unquantified benefits. The calculations of avoided health and productivity impacts suggest that pollution control policies successfully prevented a large expense to the society in extra medical care and lost work time.

Keywords:

• air pollution
• benefits analysis
• particulate matter

Acknowledgements

The author thanks Iwao Uchiyama, MD, Ph.D., Professor, Department of Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University for his oversight and suggestions, and Bryan Hubbell, Ph.D., Environmental Economist, US Environmental Protection Agency, for sharing his expertise in EPA's benefit‐cost analysis methodologies for application to particulate matter control.

Notes

^a Concentration of PM₁₀ from Tokyo Metropolitan Government (2000a).

^b No monitoring sites reported in Toshima‐ku. Average of 53 monitorings sites in Tokyo used.

PM = particulate matter; PM₁₀ = particulate matter less than 10 μm in diameter.

^a Concentration of PM_2.5 estimated as PM₁₀ concentration from Tokyo Metropolitan Government (2000a) multiplied by 60, the fraction assumed to consist of PM_2.5 (Levy and Spengler, 2002).

^b No monitoring sites reported in Toshima‐ku. Average of 53 monitorings sites in Tokyo used.

PM = particulate matter; PM_2.5 = particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter

^a Cardiovascular disease.

^b Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

^c No upper or lower confidence limits reported (U.S. EPA, 2000).

^d Lower bound of odds ratio reported as less than 1.0. No lower bound confidence limit could be estimated.

Population data from Tokyo Metropolitan Government (1999).

All dollar amounts adjusted for purchasing power parity.