Publication bias and genuine effects: the case of Granger causality between tourism and income

ABSTRACT

Several studies have analysed the relationships between tourism and economic growth by means of tests of Granger causality. However, no consensus has been reached. In this paper our purpose is to synthesize the literature available through a meta-regression analysis. Our results suggest that there is evidence of publication bias and that the empirical effects reported in the literature are non-genuine. Concomitantly, we find that some methodological choices are positively or negatively correlated with the size of the empirical effects. Nevertheless, purged from publication bias, we confirm previous assertions that the variability of the empirical effects can be explained by the degree of tourism specialization, by the level of economic development and by the size of the countries analysed, even though, in some respects, in a different way than expected.

KEYWORDS:

• Meta-regression
• tourism-led growth hypothesis
• Granger causality
• publication bias

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.