Is terrorism a real threat to tourism development? Analysis of inbound and domestic tourist arrivals in Turkey

ABSTRACT

This study estimates the long-run and short-run impact of terrorist incidents on inbound and domestic tourist arrivals in Turkey by using a non-linear autoregressive lag (NARDL) model for the period between 2007 and 2016. The results reveal unidirectional nonlinear relationships from terrorism to tourism in both the long-run and short run. Inbound and domestic tourists show different respond towards an increase or decrease in terrorist incidents. The findings are expected to help tourism management, planning, and forecasting regarding greater economic benefits for the country. We suggest that improving security measures and effective safety procedures in tourist areas can reduce terrorist incidents in the future.

KEYWORDS:

• Terrorism
• tourism
• NARDL model
• Turkey
• cointegration

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.