Forecasting a post-COVID-19 economic crisis using fuzzy cognitive maps: a Spanish tourism-sector perspective

ABSTRACT

Those in positions of leadership are accustomed to having to deal with complex and uncertain situations. However, the on-going COVID-19 pandemic has taken this challenge to a new level of complexity. Although econometric models are being used to predict economic scenarios relating to the fall-out from the pandemic, these forecasts do not factor-in the uncertainty generated by new changes announced weekly by policymakers. The aim of the present study is therefore to apply a fuzzy approach to develop a method for providing consistent and reliable forecasting scenarios that facilitate managers’ and policymaker’s decision-making in complex and uncertain situations. The chosen context of the study is the case of the potential consequences of COVID-19 for the international tourism sector in Spain, using fuzzy cognitive maps. This semi-quantitative model can help researchers to forecast the potential impact of major events in fuzzy or uncertain environments by constructing flexible and adaptable scenarios.

KEYWORDS:

• Fuzzy cognitive maps
• semi-quantitative method
• crisis management
• international tourism
• economic crisis

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Correction Statement

This article has been republished with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article.

Notes

1 El Periódico (2020). ‘El FMI prevé para España la peor debacle por el covid pero también la recuperación más rápida’ (‘IMF predicts the worst debacle for Spain due to Covid but the fastest recovery’). Online: www.elperiodico.com/es/economia/20201013/fmi-espana-recuperacion-pandemia-coronavirus-8153317.

2 https://www.enaire.es/es_ES/2020_10_07/ndp_estadisticas_vuelos_septiembre_2020.

3 http://www.aena.es/es/corporativa/aena-registra-resultado-neto-negativo-1076-millones-euros-en-nueve-primeros-meses-ano-crisis-covid-19.html?p=1237548067436.

4 The herd immunity threshold is approximately 67% (Randolph & Barreiro, 2020).

5 https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20201227/claves-campana-vacunacion-espana/2061225.shtml.

6 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/27/vaccination-rolls-out-across-europe-but-anger-remains-over-late-start.

7 https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/FCMapper/FCMapper.pdf.

8 https://apps.fomento.gob.es/BDOTLE/visorBDpop.aspx?i=607 (data for 2018, last updated in November 2019).

9 Banco de España (2021). https://repositorio.bde.es/bitstream/123456789/14835/1/be2101-art03.pdf

10 IMF (2021) ‘World Economic Outlook Update’. Online: https://tinyurl.com/fjh2ptjv

Additional information

Funding

FEDER/Junta de Andalucía-Consejería de Transformación Económica, Industria, Conocimiento y Universidades/ Proyecto (CV20-09357).