Dealing with uncertainty, from overtourism to overcapacity: a decision support model for art cities: the case of UNESCO WHCC of Florence

ABSTRACT

This study analyses tourist flows in the UNESCO World Heritage Historic Centre of Florence before the occurrence of the COVID-19 crisis and examines how the pandemic has impacted the city. We build a system of indicators to measure the carrying capacity of art cities, assessing the risk exposure of these historic settings to overtourism. The model provides a detailed picture of the evolving tourism phenomenon and the economic, social, and environmental implications thereof. The indicators system supports local decision-makers in monitoring tourism flows and evaluating critical policies to preserve the destination heritage. It further examines the sustainable strategy implemented by the Municipality of Florence towards tourism recovery, as cities of art need to protect their cultural heritage and balance the needs of residents and tourists.

KEYWORDS:

• Overtourism
• cultural tourism
• Florence
• carrying capacity
• sustainable tourism
• COVID-19

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 Available at: https://www.comune.venezia.it/it/enjoyrespectvenezia#:~:text=%23EnjoyRespectVenezia%20%C3%A8%20la%20campagna%20di,Venezia%20e%20dei%20suoi%20abitanti.

2 The 44th session of the World Heritage Committee extended Florence’s UNESCO World Heritage boundaries in 2021 by including The Church of San Miniato al Monte, The Church of San Salvatore a Monte, the monumental ramps designed by Giuseppe Poggi, Piazzale Michelangelo, and the Rose and Iris Gardens. The new area is not included in our analysis because we investigated tourism flows before the onset pandemic (https://whc.unesco.org/archive/2021/whc-21-44com-18-en.pdf).

3 We follow the structure of the ‘European Tourism Indicator System’ [ETIS Toolkit] (European Union, 2016) to define the TCC indicators for European historic cities. The ETIS toolkit organizes the sustainability indicators in four macro-areas (‘Sections’). Specifically, the following sections have been adopted: A. Destination management; B. Economic value; C. Social and cultural impact; D. Environmental impact; because these macro-areas can also be considered reliable categories for the three TCC components in cities of art. The final model includes a system of 28 indicators for which data were available during the period analysed. These indicators are used for monitoring different components of the TCC, designed specifically for the historic centres of art cities facing overtourism issues.

4 Available at: https://www.comune.fi.it/comunicati-stampa/firenze-tra-le-10-migliori-destinazioni-di-viaggio-2022-di-lonely-planet-unica.

5 Available at: https://smart-tourism-capital.ec.europa.eu/index_it.

Additional information

Funding

This research was supported by Ministry of Cultural Heritage and Activities and Tourism [grant number L. 77/2006].