Using risk factor statistics in decision-making: prospects and challenges

ABSTRACT

Society expects social workers and other professionals to use the best available knowledge in making decisions. Statistical (numerical) data are rapidly becoming an increasing part of the repertoire of knowledge available to professionals. However, social workers can at times seem reluctant to use statistics to inform their judgement processes when considering the assessment and seriousness of risk factors. This paper explores and considers the potential use of statistical methods in understanding risk factors. Potentials of using statistics include reducing variability in human judgements, increasing accuracy and reducing human bias. When contemplating these potentials, it is important to consider ethical issues, legal and organisational issues as well as technical issues. Acknowledging that potentials and challenges need to be weighed, it is imperative that the profession engages in the development of adequate statistical methods to improve the knowledge and skill base for social work in the best interests of clients and families.

RESUME

Det forventes, at socialrådgivere og andre professionelle bruger den bedste tilgængelige viden til at træffe beslutninger. Statistiske (numeriske) data er hurtigt ved at blive en integreret del af det tilgængelige vidensfelt for professionelle i socialt arbejde. Denne artikel undersøger og anskuer potentialet i at anvende statistiske metoder i vurdering af risikofaktorer. Potentialerne ved brug af statistik er blandt andet mindre variation, mere nøjagtige vurderinger og mindre bias forårsaget af personlige differencer. Disse potentialer skal vejes op imod etiske, juridiske, organisatoriske og tekniske udfordringer. Såfremt udfordringerne kan imødekommes, er det vigtigt, at professionen bidrager til at udvikle sit vidensgrundlag og kompetener til at omfavne udviklingen af statistiske metoder til vurdering af risiko.

KEYWORDS:

• Decision-making
• decision-support systems
• risk assessment
• risk factors
• statistics

NØGLEORD:

• Beslutningstagning
• beslutningsstøtteredskaber
• risikovurdering
• risikofaktorer
• Statistik

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to acknowledge the participants at the 1st International Scientific Conference on Research on Family Services at the Center for Family Research, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, Poland (March 2019) whose challenging questions prompted the writing of this paper.

Declaration of interest

Brian Taylor has recently been involved in setting up DARE Training & Development Ltd (www.daretraining.eu) which includes within its purposes the development of predictive analytics for health and social care. The other authors declare that there is no interest relevant to their authorship of this paper.

Correction Statement

This article has been republished with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Lene Mosegaard Søbjerg

Lene Mosegaard Søbjerg is a director of research and development at University College South in Denmark. She holds a master and phD in international relations from University of Aarhus. Her main focus of research is social work with emphasis on how social policies affect and help citizens and civil servants working in the field of social work. She has published in Danish and international journals about sexually abused children, referral about children at risk, stigmatisation of people with mentally illness among other things.

Brian J. Taylor

Brian Taylor is a Professor of Social Work, Ulster University, Northern Ireland where he leads research on decisions, assessment and risk. He teaches these topics on qualifying and post-qualifying social work courses. He joined the University after ten years’ experience in practice and management, and 15 years in training and organisation development in health and social care. He is a Fellow of the UK Academy of Social Sciences; Honorary Associate Scientist of the Harding Centre for Risk Literacy at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin; and a founder member of the Board of the European Social Work Research Association.

Jaroslaw Przeperski

Jarosław Przeperski is a head of the Center for Family Research at the Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń, assistant professor in the Social Work Department, and an expert on family matters in the Polish Ministry of Justice and the Ministry of Family, Labour and Social Policy. Author of many expert opinions and publications in the field of public family policy. His research interests focus on social work, public policies, family research and social pedagogy. Head of research grants on models of family support in the local community, new approaches to social work with the family, the decision-making process in the context of child protection and comparative research of families in the international perspective. He is also a principal organiser of the regular international conference International Scientific Conference of Research on Family Services.

Saša Horvat

Saša Horvat is working as an assistant professor at Theology in Rijeka, Catholic Faculty of Theology, University of Zagreb, Croatia, giving lectures in the following philosophical subjects: Ontology; Philosophical anthropology; History of philosophy – Greek and medieval philosophy; Logic and epistemology; Theodicy; Faith and Science. His main philosophical interests are in the areas of: Metaphysics, Philosophy of Science, Neurophilosophy, Thomas Aquinas and others. He has published one book, co-authored one book; published several articles in international journals and presented lectures at numerous international conferences. Saša is the main organiser of international interdisciplinary conference ‘Rijeka scientific bridges’ in Rijeka, Croatia.

Hani Nouman

Hani Nouman, PhD, is a senior member of staff at the School of Social Work at the University of Haifa. She is a social worker and lecturer and has extensive practical experience in the field of community interventions. In her research, Dr. Nouman focuses on assessing the need for policy change, the effectiveness of decision-making processes in professional interventions, the cultural aspects and cultural sensitivity in social work, and the involvement of practitioners in social policy shaping processes.

Denise Harvey

Denise Harvey is a qualified Social Worker with over 20 years of experience working with children and families services. She has 10 years of practice experience within Youth Justice as both a practitioner and Operational Manager. She has extensive experience of working with high risk offenders as well as managing high profile government projects. Denise has been a key member of the research team on a British Academy funded study of professional decision-making in child protection, the Seeing Through the Eyes of Experienced Practitioners (STEEP) project. Denise is currently involved in a GSTT funded research project looking at the Court processes for people with Mental Health/Neuro-disability Disorder.