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Mathematical and Computer Modelling of Dynamical Systems
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Research Article

Multivariate doubly truncated moments for generalized skew-elliptical distributions with applications

, &
Pages 444-476 | Received 24 Sep 2023, Accepted 29 Apr 2024, Published online: 05 Aug 2024

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we focus on multivariate doubly truncated first two moments of generalized skew-elliptical distributions. This class of distributions includes many useful distributions, such as skew-normal, skew Student-t, skew-logistic and skew-Laplace-normal distributions, as special cases. The formulas of multivariate doubly truncated covariance (MDTCov) for generalized skew-elliptical distributions are also given. Further, we compute multivariate doubly truncated expectations (MDTEs) and MDTCovs for 2-variate skew-normal, skew-Student-t, skew-logistic and skew-Laplace-normal distributions, and use Monte-Carlo method to simulate and compare with the above results. As applications, the results of multivariate tail conditional expectation (MTCE) and multivariate tail covariance (MTCov) for generalized skew-elliptical distributions are derived. In addition, an optimal problem involving MDTE and MDTCov risk measures is proposed. Finally, we use real data to fit skew-normal distribution and to discuss MTCEs and MTCovs of logarithm of adjusted prices for two portfolios consisting of three companies from S&P (Standard & Poor’s) sectors.

1. Introduction

Truncated moments’ expansions are applied to many fields including the design of experiment (Thompson Citation1976), robust estimation (Cuesta-Albertos et al. Citation2008), outlier detections (Riani et al. Citation2009; Cerioli Citation2010), robust regression (Torti et al. Citation2012), robust detection (Cerioli et al. Citation2014), statistical estates’ estimation (Shi et al. Citation2014), risk averse selection (Hanasusanto et al. Citation2015), and entropy computation and application (Milev et al. Citation2012; Zellinger and Moser Citation2021). Therefore, the related research of truncated moment is developed to different distributions by many scholars.

Since (Tallis Citation1961) has given an explicit formula for the first two moments of a lower truncated multivariate standard normal distribution by moment generating function, (Amemiya Citation1974 and Lee Citation1979) used results (Tallis Citation1961) for extending (Tobin Citation1958)‘s model to the multivariate regression and simultaneous equations models when the dependent variables are truncated normal. Lien (Citation1985) provided the expressions for the moments of lower truncated bivariate log-normal distributions. Kim (Citation2008) studied the moments of a doubly truncated generalized Student-t distribution and its utility for solving statistical problems. Manjunath and Wilhelm (Citation2012) computed the first and second moments for the rectangularly double-truncated multivariate normal density, and extended the derivation of Tallis to general μ, Σ and for double truncation. Arismendi (Citation2013) derived formulae for the higher order tail moments of the lower truncated multivariate standard normal, Student-t, lognormal and a finite-mixture of multivariate normal distributions. Arismendi and Broda (Citation2017) deeply derived multivariate elliptical lower truncated moment generating function, and first second-order moments of quadratic forms of the multivariate normal, Student-t and generalized hyperbolic distributions. Moreover, Ho et al. (Citation2012) presented general formulae for computing the first two moments of the truncated multivariate Student-t distribution under the double truncation. Recently, Kan and Robotti (Citation2017) provided expressions of the moments for folded and doubly truncated multivariate normal distribution. Galarza et al. (Citation2021) and Morales et al. (Citation2022) generalized moments of folded and double truncated to multivariate Student-t and extended skew-normal distributions, respectively. Also, Ogasawara (Citation2021b) presented unified and non-recursive formulas for moments of the normal distribution with stripe truncation. Ogasawara (Citation2021a) further derived a non-recursive formula for various moments of the multivariate normal distribution with sectional truncation, and introduced the importance of truncated moments in biological field, such as animals or plants breeding programmes (Herrendörfer and Tuchscherer Citation1996) and medical treatments with risk variables as blood pressures and pulses, where low and high values of the variables are of primary concern. Valeriano et al. (Citation2021) investigated moments and random number generation for the truncated elliptical family of distributions. Galarza et al. (Citation2022) further computed doubly truncated moments for the selection elliptical class of distributions, and established sufficient and necessary conditions for the existence of these truncated moments.

From a practical viewpoint, skewed distribution model is more useful than non-skewed distribution model because of data sets possessing large skewness and/or kurtosis measures (for instant, in economic and financial data sets). Based on this reason, many skew distributions and their some properties were researched, including skew normal (Azzalini and Capitanio Citation1999), skew-t (Azzalini and Capitanio Citation2003), mixture of skew-normal (Mousavi et al. Citation2019), mixture of elliptical (Zuo and Yin Citation2021), generalized skew normal (Huang et al. Citation2013), generalized skew-elliptical (Genton Citation2004), generalized skew two-piece skew-normal (Jamalizadeh et al. Citation2011) and generalized skew two-piece skew-elliptical (Salehi et al. Citation2014) distributions and so on. Also, Roozegar et al. (Citation2020) derived explicit expressions of the first two moments for doubly truncated multivariate normal mean-variance mixture distributions.

Firstly, since the real data set is not symmetric or has a heavy tail, the symmetric distribution does not fit to it well (see Eini and Khaloozadeh Citation2021). Secondly, the majority of researches has been done to calculate the doubly (or lower) truncated moments to symmetric (elliptical) distribution but less attention has been paid to asymmetric distribution. Thirdly, the (doubly) truncated moments can be applied to many fields, especially, in economics and finance (computing measures of risk or portfolio risk). Finally, due to the great flexibility of the skewing function and the extent of the elliptical family, the generalized skew-elliptical (GSE) distributions family include many commonly used skewed and symmetric distributions. This family of distributions not only facilitates the modelling of skewness but also adeptly captures heavy tails. Interesting special cases are discussed in Fang et al. (Citation1990); Fang and Zhang (Citation1990); Azzalini and Capitanio (Citation1999); Branco and Dey (Citation2001); Genton (Citation2004). Based on the above reasons, we derive multivariate doubly truncated first two moments for GSE distributions and provide expressions of multivariate doubly truncated expectation and covariance for this class of distributions. Some important cases of those distributions, including skew-normal (SN), skew Student-t (SSt), skew-logistic (SLo) and skew-Laplace-normal (SLaN) distributions, are also presented. As applications, formulas of MTCE and MTCov for GSE distributions are derived by our results established. Furthermore, an optimal problem involving MDTE and MDTCov risk measures is proposed and its solution is given.

The remainder of the paper proceeds as follows. In Section 2, we introduce preliminaries, including the GSE distributions and notation. Section 3 focuses on multivariate doubly truncated moments for GSE distributions, deriving formulas for their multivariate doubly truncated first two moments. In Section 4, we show some special cases. As applications, MTCE and MTCov risk measures for GSE, and an optimal problem involving MDTE and MDTCov risk measures are given in Section 5. Numerical illustrations are shown in Section 6. Specifically, this section compares MDTE and MDTCov of the several distributions, presents a comparison between simulated estimation and formula calculation, and also discusses MTE and MTCov of logarithm of adjusted prices for six companies. Finally, the paper closes with the concluding remarks.

2. Preliminaries

We start with the definition of GSE distributions as follows.

2.1. Generalized skew-elliptical distributions

Class of generalized skew-elliptical distributions was introduced by Genton (Citation2004) and has been widely discussed in many literatures (e.g. Genton and Loperfido (Citation2005); Shushi (Citation2016); Adcock et al. (Citation2021)). A p×1 random vector YGSEpμ,Σ,gp,H is said to have a generalized skew-elliptical distribution if its probability density distribution (pdf) exists and has the form

(1) fY(y):=2cp|Σ|gp12(yμ)Σ1(yμ)HΣ12(yμ),yRp,(1)

where

(2) fX(x)=cp|Σ|gp12(xμ)Σ1(xμ),xRp,(2)

is the pdf of a p-dimensional elliptical random vector with location vector μ, scale matrix Σ and density generator gp(u), u0 (see, for instance, Landsman and Valdez (Citation2003)). Here

cp=Γ(p/2)(2π)p/20sp/21gp(s)ds1

is normalizing constant. The density generator gp satisfies

(3) 0sp/21gp(s)ds<.(3)

Here H is the skewing function, which satisfies H(t)=1H(t) and 0H(t)1 for tRp. From H:RpR, we can define skewing function J:RR through H(t)=J(γTt) for tRp and γRp. If YGSEpμ,Σ,gp,H is a p-dimensional generalized skew-elliptical random vector with pdf fY(y), the random vector L=d[Y|a<Yb] (=d means ‘equally distributed’) will follow a doubly truncated multivariate distribution with pdf given by

(4) fL(l)=fY(l)Pr(a<Lb)IA(l),(4)

where A={t=(t1,,tp)Rp:a1<t1b1,,ap<tpbp}={tRp:a<tb}, a=(a1,a2,,ap), b=(b1,b2,,bp) and a<b, i.e. ak<bk, for k{1,2,,p}, Pr(a<Lb) denoted by FL(a,b), and IB() is the indicator function.

We define cumulative generators Gp(u) and Gp(u) as follows (see Landsman et al. (Citation2018)):

Gp(u)=ugp(v)dv,

and

Gp(u)=uGp(v)dv,

and their normalizing constants are, respectively, written as (see Zuo et al. (Citation2021)):

cp=Γ(p/2)(2π)p/20sp/21Gp(s)ds1,

and

cp=Γ(p/2)(2π)p/20sp/21Gp(s)ds1.

For those density generators, it is necessary to meet the following conditions

(5) 0sp/21Gp(s)ds<,(5)

and

(6) 0sp/21Gp(s)ds<.(6)

Now, we define elliptical random vectors XEp(μ,Σ,Gp) and XEp(μ,Σ,Gp). Their form of pdf (if them exist) are as follows, respectively:

fX(x)=cp|Σ|Gp12(xμ)Σ1(xμ),xRp,
fX(x)=cp|Σ|Gp12(xμ)Σ1(xμ),xRp.

Let YGSEp(μ,Σ,Gp,H) and YGSEp(μ,Σ,Gp,H) be the corresponding generalized skew-elliptical random vectors.

Next, we introduce some notations.

Notation

Assume W=(W1,W2,,Wp)Rp is an arbitrary random vector with probability density function fW(w), for any fixed v=(v1,v2,,vp)Rp, writing

Wk=(W1,W2,,Wk1,Wk+1,,Wp),k{1,2,,p},

and

Wkl=(W1,,Wk1,Wk+1,,Wl1,Wl+1,,Wp),1k<lp.

Denoting

Wvk=(W1,W2,,Wk1,vk,Wk+1,,Wp),k{1,2,,p},

and

Wvk,vl=(W1,,Wk1,vk,Wk+1,,Wl1,vl,Wl+1,,Wp),1k<lp.

To give an expression for the multivariate doubly truncated moment, we denote the doubly truncated expectation EW(t,v)[h(W)] of p-dimensional random vector W with pdf fW(w) as

EW(t,v)[h(W)]=tvh(w)fW(w)dw,w,t,vRp,

where h:RpR is a function.

Remark 1. When h() = 1, doubly truncated expectation will be denoted by FW(t,v); When v+, the doubly truncated expectation will be tail expectation:

EWt[h(W)]=t+h(w)fW(w)dw,w,tRp,

which is defined by Zuo and Yin (Citation2022a).

The following notation will be used throughout this paper: Φ(), T() and Lo() denote the cumulative distribution functions (cdf) of the univariate standard normal, Student-t (with degrees of freedom m) and logistic distributions; ϕ(), t() and lo() denote the pdfs of the univariate standard normal, Student-t (with degrees of freedom m) and logistic distributions, respectively.

3. Multivariate doubly truncated moments

Let YGSEpμ,Σ,gp,H be a random vector with finite fixed vector μ=(μ1,,μp), positive defined fixed matrix Σ=(σij)i,j=1p and pdf fY(y). Let Z=Σ12(Yμ)GSEp0,Ip,gp,H. Writing ξv=ξv,1,ξv,2,,ξv,p=Σ12(vμ), v{a,b}.

Now, we define fMξsk(w), fMξsk(v) and fMξsk,ξtl(u), the pdfs associated with elliptical random vectors Mξsk, Mξsk and Mξsk,ξtl, respectively:

(7) fMξsk(w)=cp1,ξskGp12ww+12ξsk2,wRp1,(7)
(8) fMξsk(v)=cp1,ξskGp12vv+12ξsk2,vRp1,(8)
(9) fMξsk,ξtl(u)=cp2,ξsk,ξtlGp12uu+12ξsk2+12ξtl2,uRp2,(9)

where s,t{a,b},k,l{1,2,,p}, Mξsk=Mk, Mξsk=Mk and Mξsk,ξtl=Mkl. In addition, cn1,ξsk, cn1,ξsk and cn2,ξsk,ξtl are corresponding normalizing constants of fMξsk(w), fMξsk(v) and fMξsk,ξtl(u), which are written as:

(10) cp1,ξsk=Γ(p1)/2(2π)(p1)/20x(p3)/2Gp12ξsk2+xdx1,(10)
(11) cp1,ξsk=Γ(p1)/2(2π)(p1)/20x(p3)/2Gp12ξsk2+xdx1,(11)

and

(12) cp2,ξsk,ξtl=Γ(p2)/2(2π)(p2)/20x(p4)/2Gp12ξsk2+12ξtl2+xdx1.(12)

Next, we present explicit expressions for the multivariate doubly truncated (first two) moments of generalized skew-elliptical distributions.

Theorem 1.

Let YGSEp(μ,Σ,gp,H) (p2) be as in (1). Suppose that Y satisfies conditions (3), (5) and (6). Further, assume iH and ijH exist for i,j{1,2,,p}. Then

(13) (i)E[L]=E[Y|a<Yb]=μ+Σ12δFZ(ξa,ξb),(13)
(14) (ii)E[LL]=E[YY|a<Yb]=μμ+Σ12δμFZ(ξa,ξb)+μδΣ12FZ(ξa,ξb)+Σ12ΩΣ12FZ(ξa,ξb),(14)

where Ω=(Ωij)i,j=1p is a p×p symmetric matrix, and δ=(δ1,δ2,,δp) is a p×1 vector. Here

(15) Ωij=2{ cpcp2,ξai,ξaj**E¯Mξai,ξaj**(a,ij,b,ij)[H(Mξai,aj**)]cpcp2,ai,ξbj**E¯Mξai,ξbj**(ξa,ij,ξb,ij)[H(Mξai,ξbj**)]+cpcp1,ξai**E¯Mξai**(ξa,i,ξb,i)[jH(Mξai**)]+cpcp2,ξbi,ξbj**E¯Mξbi,ξbj**(ξa,ij,ξb,ij)[H(Mξbi,ξbj**)]cpcp2,ξbi,ξaj**E¯Mξbi,ξaj**(ξa,ij,ξb,ij)[H(Mξbi,ξaj**)]cpcp1,ξbi**E¯Mξbi**(ξa,i,ξb,i)[jH(Mξbi**)]+cpcp1,ξaj**E¯Mξaj**(ξa,j,ξb,j)[iH(Mξaj**)]cpcp1,ξbi**E¯Mξbi**(ξa,j,ξb,j)[jH(Mξbi**)]+cpcp**E¯Mξaj**(ξa,ξb)[ijH(M**)]},ij,(15)
(16) Ωii=2cpcp1,ξaiξa,iEMξai(ξa,i,ξb,i)[H(Mξai)]cpcp1,ξbiξb,iEMξbi(ξa,i,ξb,i)[H(Mξbi)]+cpcp1,ξaiEMξai(ξa,i,ξb,i)[iH(Mξai)]cpcp1,ξbiEMξbi(ξa,i,ξb,i)[iH(Mξbi)]+cpcpEM(ξa,ξb)[iiH(M)]+cpcpFZ(ξa,ξb),(16)
(17) δk=2cpcp1,ξakEMξak(ξa,k,ξb,k)[H(Mξak)]cpcp1,ξbkEMξbk(ξa,k,ξb,k)[H(Mξbk)]+cpcpEM(ξa,ξb)[kH(M)],(17)

i,j,k{1,2,,p}, ZGSEp0,Ip,gp,H, ZGSEp0,Ip,Gp,H, MEp0,Ip,Gp,

MEp(0,Ip,Gp), and pdfs of Mξsk, Mξsk and Mξsk,ξtl are same as in (7), (8) and (9), respectively. The corresponding normalizing constants cp1,ξsk, cp1,ξsk and cp2,ξsk,ξtl are as in (10), (11) and (12), respectively. In addition, iH(z)=H(z)zi and ijH(z)=2H(z)zizj.

Proof. See the Appendix.

Zuo et al. (Citation2023) proposed multivariate range Value-at-Risk (MRVaR) and covariance (MRCov) risk measures for a n×1 random vector X:

MRVaR(p,q)(X)=EX|VaRp(X)<XVaRq(X),
MRCov(p,q)(X)=E(XMRVaR(p,q)(X))(XMRVaR(p,q)(X))|VaRp(X)<XVaRq(X),

where p=(p1,,pn),q=(q1,,qn)(0,1)n,pk<qk,k=1,2,,n. The above two risk measures are applicable in finance and risk management. Furthermore, they pointed out that regulatory constrains, investment target and risk management requirement (e.g. credit rating level) can be considered in determining desirable p and q.

As their generalization, we define MDTE and MDTCov for a p×1 random vector Y as follows, respectively:

MDTE(a,b)(Y)=EY|a<Yb

and

MDTCov(a,b)(Y)=E(YMDTE(a,b)(Y))(YMDTE(a,b)(Y))|a<Yb.

Now, we can give following result of MDTE and MDTCov for GSE distributions.

Proposition 1.

Under the conditions of Theorem 1, we have

(18) Cov[L]=MDTCov(a,b)(Y)=Σ12ΩFZ(ξa,ξb)δδFZ2(ξa,ξb)Σ12,(18)

where Ω and δ are the same as those in Theorem 1.

Proof. See the Appendix.

The MDTE and MDTCov for a p×1 random vector Y include multivariate upper expectation (MUE) and Covariance (MUCov), respectively:

MUEb(Y)=EY|Yb

and

MUCovb(Y)=E(YMUEb(Y))(YMUEb(Y))|Yb.

In Landsman et al. (Citation2018), authors derived multivariate tailed Chebyshev-type inequality. For the MUE and MUCov, we have multivariate upper Chebyshev-type inequality as follows.

Proposition 2.

For any ε>0 and p×1 random vector Y, we have the following inequality:

Pr(YMUEb(Y))MUCovb(Y)1(YMUEb(Y))ε|Ybpε.

Proof. See the Appendix.

4. Special cases

This section focuses E[Y|a<Yb], E[YY|a<Yb] and MDTCov(a,b)(Y) for important special cases of the GSE distributions, including SN, SSt, SLo and SLaN distributions. Their forms of E[Y|a<Yb], E[YY|a<Yb] and MDTCov(a,b)(Y) are given in (13), (14) and (18), respectively, so that we merely present δk, k{1,2,,p}, Ωij,i=j and ij.

Corollary 1

(SN distribution). Let YSNp(μ,Σ,γ). The pdf of Y is

fY(y)=2cp|Σ|exp{12(yμ)Σ1(yμ)}Φ( Σ12(yμ)),yp.

In this case, Gp(u)=Gp(u)=gp(u)=exp(u), cp=cp=cp=(2π)p2 and

HΣ12(y)=Φ( TΣ12(y)), where γ=(γ1,γ2,,γp)Rp. Since

fMξsk(w)=cp1,ξskexp12ww12ξsk2=ϕp1(w),wRp1,
fMξsk(v)=cp1,ξskexp12vv12ξsk2=ϕp1(v),vRp1,
fMξsk,ξtl(u)=cp2,ξsk,ξtlexp12uu12ξsk212ξtl2=ϕp2(u),uRp2,

ϕk() denotes the pdf of Nk(0,Σ) (the k-variate normal distribution with mean vector 0 and covariance matrix Σ). So cp1,ξsk=cp1,ξsk=(2π)p2ϕ(ξsk) and cp2,ξsk,ξtl=(2π)p2ϕ(ξsk)ϕ(ξtl). Thus,

Ωij=2{ϕ(ξa,i)ϕ(ξa,j)EMξai,ξaj(ξa,ij,ξb,ij)[Φ(γMξai,ξaj)]ϕ(ξa,i)ϕ(ξb,j)EMξai,ξbj(ξa,ij,ξb,ij)[Φ(γMξai,ξbj)]+γjϕ(ξa,i)EMξai(ξa,i,ξb,i)[ϕ(γMξai)]+ϕ(ξb,i)ϕ(ξb,j)EMξbi,ξbj(ξa,ij,ξb,ij)[Φ(γMξbi,ξbj)]ϕ(ξb,i)ϕ(ξa,j)EMξbi,ξaj(ξa,ij,ξb,ij)[Φ(γMξbi,ξaj)]γjϕ(ξb,i)EMξbi(ξa,i,ξb,i)[ϕ(γMξbi)]+γiϕ(ξa,j)EMξaj(ξa,j,ξb,j)[ϕ(γMξaj)]γiϕ(ξb,j)EMξbj(ξa,j,ξb,j)[ϕ(γMξbj)]γiγjEM(ξa,ξb)[γMϕ(γM)]},ij,
Ωii=2{ϕ(ξa,i)ξa,iEMξai(ξa,i,ξb,i)[Φ(γMξai)]ϕ(ξb,i)ξb,iEMξbi(ξa,i,ξb,i)[Φ(γMξbi)]+γiϕ(ξa,i)EMξai(ξa,i,ξb,i)[ϕ(\gammaaMξai)]γiϕ(ξb,i)EMξbi(ξa,i,ξb,i)[ϕ(\gammaaMξbi)]γi2EM(ξa,ξb)[γTMϕ(γM)]}+FZ(ξa,ξb),
δk=2{ϕ(ξa,k)EMξak(ξa,k,ξb,k)[Φ(γMξak)]ϕ(ξb,k)EMξbk(ξa,k,ξb,k)[Φ(γMξbk)]+γkEM(ξa,ξb)[ϕ(γM)]},

i,j,k{1,2,,p}, ZSNp0,Ip,γ, MNp(0,Ip), MξskNp10,Ip1 and Mξsk,ξtlNp20,Ip2.

Corollary 2

(SSt distribution). Let YSStp(μ,Σ,m,γ). Here m>0 is degrees of freedom and γ=(γ1,γ2,,γp)Rp. The pdf of Y is

fY(y)=2cp|Σ|1+(yμ)Σ1(yμ)m(m+p)/2TγTΣ12(yμ),yRp.

In this case,

gp(u)=1+2um(m+p)/2,cp=Γm+p2Γ(m/2)()p2,

and

HΣ12(yμ)=TγΣ12(yμ)

with T()St1(0,1,m). So Gp(t) and Gp(t) can be expressed, respectively, as

Gp(t)=mm+p21+2tm(m+p2)/2,

and

Gp(t)=m2(m+p2)(m+p4)1+2tm(m+p4)/2.

In addition,

cp=(m+p2)Γ(p/2)(2π)p/2m0tp/211+2tm(m+p2)/2dt1=(m+p2)Γ(p/2)()p/2mB(p2,m22),ifm>2,

and

cp=(m+p2)(m+p4)Γ(p/2)(2π)p/2m20tp/211+2tm(m+p4)/2dt1=(m+p2)(m+p4)Γ(p/2)()p/2m2B(p2,m42),ifm>4,

where Γ() and B(,) denote Gamma function and Beta function, respectively. Since

fMξsk(w)=cp1,ξskmm+p21+ξs,k2mm+p221+wTΔξsk1wm1m+p22=Stp1(0,Δξsk,m1),wRp1,
fMξsk(v)=cp1,ξskm2(m+p2)(m+p4)1+ξs,k2mm+p421+vΛξsk1vm3m+p42=Stp1(0,Λξsk,m3),vRp1,

and

fMξsk,ξtl(u)=cp2,ξsk,ξtlm2(m+p2)(m+p4)1+ξs,k2+ξt,l2mm+p421+uTΘξsk,ξtl1um2m+p42=Stp2(0,Θξsk,ξtl,m2),uRp2,

so that

cp1,ξsk=Γm+p22(m+p2)Γm12πp12(m1)p12mp+m2m+ξs,k2m+p22,
cp1,ξsk=Γm+p42(m+p2)(m+p4)Γm32πp12mm+p2m+ξs,k2m+p42

and

cp2,ξsk,ξtl=Γm+p42(m+p2)(m+p4)Γm22πp22mm+p2m+ξs,k2+ξt,l2m+p42.

Then

Ωij=2cpcp2,ξai,ξajEMξai,ξaj(ξa,ij,ξb,ij)[T(γMξai,ξaj)]cpcp2,ξai,ξbjEMξai,ξbj(ξa,ij,ξb,ij)[T(γMξai,ξbj)]+cpγjcp1,ξaiEMξai(ξa,i,ξb,i)[t(γMξai)]+cpcp2,ξbi,ξbjEMξbi,ξbj(ξa,ij,ξb,ij)[T(γMξbi,ξbj)]cpcp2,ξbi,ξajEMξbi,ξaj(ξa,ij,ξb,ij)[T(\gammaaMξbi,ξaj)]cpγjcp1,ξbiEMξbi(ξa,i,ξb,i)[t(\gammaaMξbi)]+cpγicp1,ξajEMξaj(ξa,j,ξb,j)[t(γMξaj)]cpγicp1,ξbjEMξbj(ξa,j,ξb,j)[t(γMξbj)]m3/2(m+2)1/2γiγj(m2)(m4)EM(ξa,ξb)γMt(m+2)(γM),ij,m>4,
Ωii=2cpξa,icp1,ξaiEMξai(ξa,i,ξb,i)[T(γMξai)]cpξb,icp1,ξbiEMξbi(ξa,i,ξb,i)[T(γMξbi)]+cpγicp1,ξaiEMξai(ξa,i,ξb,i)[t(γMξai)]cpγicp1,ξbiEMξbi(ξa,i,ξb,i)[t(γMξbi)]m3/2(m+2)1/2γi2(m2)(m4)EM(ξa,ξb)γMt(m+2)(γM)+mm2FZ(ξa,ξb),m>4,
δk=2cpcp1,ξakEMξak(ξa,k,ξb,k)[T(γMξak)]cpcp1,ξbkEMξbk(ξa,k,ξb,k)[T(γMξbk)]m>2,+mγkm2EM(ξa,ξb)[t(γM)]

i,j,k,l{1,2,,p}, ZSStp(0, Ip, m, \gammaa) ZGSEp0,Ip,m,Gp,γ,T\break\break, MEp0,Ip,Gˉp, MEp(0,Ip,Gp), M** ξsk,ξtl~Stp2(0,Θξsk,ξtl,m2), MξskStp10,Λξsk,m3, MξskStp1(0,Δξsk,m1), Δξsk=m+ξs,k2m1Ip1, Λξsk=m+ξs,k2m3Ip1, Θξsk,ξtl=m+ξs,k2+ξt,l2m2Ip2 and MStp(0,Ip,m).

Therefore, cpcp1,ξsk, cpcp1,ξsk and cpcp2,ξsk,ξtl can be further simplified as

cpcp1,ξsk=Γ(m12)m1m(p1)/2Γ(m2)π/m1+ξs,k2m(m+p2)/2,
cpcp1,ξsk=Γm32m+pmm24Γm2m+p4πm+ξs,k2m+p4/2,

and

cpcp2,ξsk,ξtl=m+pmm222m+p4πm+ξs,k2+ξt,l2m+p4/2.

Corollary 3

(SLo distribution). Let YSLop(μ,Σ,γ), where γ=(γ1,γ2,,γp)Rp. The pdf of Y is

fY(y)=2cp|Σ|exp{12(y)Σ1(y)}[1+exp12(yμ)Σ1(yμ)]2Lo(γΣ12(yμ)),yp.

In this case,

gp(u)=exp{u}[1+exp{u}]2,cp=1(2π)p/2Ψ2(1,p2,1),

and HΣ12(yμ)=LoγΣ12(yμ). Ψμ(z,s,a) denotes generalized Hurwitz-Lerch zeta function (see, for instance, Lin et al. (Citation2006)). Gp(t) and Gp(t) are expressed as

Gp(t)=exp(t)1+exp(t),Gp(t)=ln1+exp(t).

In addition,

cp=1(2π)p/2Ψ1(1,p2,1),andcp=1(2π)p/2Ψ1(1,p2+1,1).

Since

fMξsk(w)=cp1,ξskexp12ww12ξs,k21+exp12ww12ξs,k22,wRp1,
fMξsk(v)=cp1,ξskln1+exp12vv12ξs,k2,vRp1,

and

fMξsk,ξtl(u)=cp2,ξsk,ξtlln1+exp12uu12ξs,k212ξt,l2,uRp2,

so that

cp1,ξsk*=Γ((p1)/2)exp{ξs,k22}(2π)(p1)/2[0t(p3)/2exp{t}1+exp{ξs,k22}exp{t}dt]1              =exp{ξs,k22}(2π)(p1)/2Ψ1*(exp{ξs,k22},p12,1),
cp1,ξsk=Γ((p1)/2)(2π)(p1)/20t(p3)/2ln1+exp12ξs,k2exp(t)dt1,

and

cp2,ξsk,ξtl=Γ((p2)/2)(2π)(p2)/20t(p4)/2ln1+exp12ξs,k212ξt,l2exp(t)dt1.

Then

Ωij=2cpcp2,ξai,ξajEMξai,ξaj(ξa,ij,ξb,ij)[Lo(γMξai,ξaj)]cpcp2,ξai,ξbjEMξai,ξbj(ξa,ij,ξb,ij)[Lo(γMξai,ξbj)]+cpγjcp1,ξaiEMξai(ξa,i,ξb,i)[lo(γMξai)]+cpcp2,ξbi,ξbjEMξbi,ξbj(ξa,ij,ξb,ij)[Lo(γMξbi,ξbj)]cpcp2,ξbi,ξajEMξbi,ξaj(ξa,ij,ξb,ij)[Lo(γMξbi,ξaj)]cpγjcp1,ξbiEMξbi(ξa,i,ξb,i)[lo(γMξbi)]+cpγicp1,ξajEMξaj(ξa,j,ξb,j)[lo(γMξaj)]cpγicp1,ξbjEMξbj(ξa,j,ξb,j)[lo(γMξbj)]+Ψ1(1,p2+1,1)γiγjΨ2(1,p2,1)EM(ξa,ξb)γMlo(γM)2ϕ(γM)(2π)1/2+ϕ(γM)1,ij,
Ωii=2cpξa,icp1,ξaiEMξai(ξa,i,ξb,i)[Lo(γMξai)]|cpξb,icp1,ξbiEMξbi(ξa,i,ξb,i)[Lo(γMξbi)]+cpγicp1,ξaiEMξai(ξa,i,ξb,i)[lo(γMξai)]cpγicp1,ξbiEMξbi(ξa,i,ξb,i)[lo(γMξbi)]+Ψ1(1,p2+1,1)γi2Ψ2(1,p2,1)EM(ξa,ξb)γMlo(γM)2ϕ(γM)(2π)1/2+ϕ(γM)1+Ψ1(1,p2,1)Ψ2(1,p2,1)FZ(ξa,ξb),
δk=2cpcp1,ξakEMξak(ξa,k,ξb,k)[Lo(γMξak)]cpcp1,ξbkEMξbk(ξa,k,ξb,k)[Lo(γMξbk)]+Ψ1(1,p2,1)γkΨ2(1,p2,1)EM(ξa,ξb)[lo(γM)],

i,j,k{1,2,,p}, ZSLop(0,Ip,γ), ZGSEp0,Ip,Gp,γ,Lo, MEp(0,Ip,Gp),

MEp(0,Ip,Gp) and MLop(0,Ip).

Therefore,

cpcp1,ξsk=Ψ1exp{ξs,k22},p12,1ϕ(ξs,k)Ψ2(1,p2,1),
cpcp1,ξsk=\intt0t(p3)/2ln1+exp12ξs,k2exp(t)dtΓ((p1)/2)2πΨ2(1,p2,1),

and

cpcp2,ξsk,ξtl=\intt0t(p4)/2ln1+exp12ξs,k212ξs,l2exp(t)dt2Γ((p1)/2)πΨ2(1,p2,1).

Corollary 4

(SLaN distribution). Let YSLaNp(μ,Σ,γ), where γ=(γ1,γ2,,γp). The pdf of Y is

fY(y)=2cp|Σ|exp(yμ)Σ1(yμ)1/2ΦγΣ12(yμ),yRp.

In this case, gp(u)=exp{2u},cp=Γ(p/2)2πp/2Γ(p) and HΣ12(yμ)=ΦγΣ12(yμ). So

Gp(t)=(1+2t)exp(2t),Gp(t)=(3+2t+32t)exp(2t).

In addition,

cp=pΓ(p/2)2πp/2Γ(p+2),andcp=p(p+2)Γ(p/2)2πp/2Γ(p+4).

Since

fMξsk(w)=cp1,ξsk1+ww+ξs,k2expww+ξs,k2,wRp1,
fMξsk(v)=cp1,ξsk1+32vv+ξs,k2+3expvv+ξs,k2,vRp1

and

fMξsk,ξtl(u)=cp2,ij1+32uu+ξs,k2+ξt,l2+3expuu+ξs,k2+ξt,l2,uRp2,

thus

cp1,ξsk=Γp12(2π)(p1)/20tp321+2t+ξs,k2exp2t+ξs,k2dt1,
cp1,ξsk=Γp12(2π)(p1)/20tp32(2+32)t+ξs,k22+3exp2t+ξs,k2dt1

and

cp2,ξsk,ξtl=Γp22(2π)(p2)/20tp42(2+32)t+ξs,k22+ξt,l22+3exp2t+ξs,k2+ξt,l2dt1.

Then

Ωij=2cpcp2,ξai,ξajEMξai,ξaj(ξa,ij,ξb,ij)[Φ(γMξai,ξaj)]cpcp2,ξai,ξbjEMξai,ξbj(ξa,ij,ξb,ij)[Φ(γMξai,ξbj)]+cpγjcp1,ξaiEMξai(ξa,i,ξb,i)[ϕ(γMξai)]+cncp2,ξbi,ξbjEMξbi,ξbj(ξa,ij,ξb,ij)[Φ(γMξbi,ξbj)]cpcp2,ξbi,ξajEMξai,ξaj(ξa,ij,ξb,ij)[Φ(γMξbi,ξaj)]cpγjcp1,ξbiEMξbi(ξa,i,ξb,i)[ϕ(γMξbi)]+cpγicp1,ξajEMξaj(ξa,j,ξb,j)[ϕ(γMξaj)]cpγicp1,ξbjEMξbj(ξa,j,ξb,j)[ϕ(γMξbj)](p+3)(p+1)γiγjEM(ξa,ξb)[γMϕ(γM)],ij,
Ωii=2cpξa,icp1,ξaiEMξai(ξa,i,ξb,i)[Φ(γMξai)]cpξb,icp1,ξbiEMξbi(ξa,i,ξb,i)[Φ(γMξbi)]+cpγicp1,ξaiEMξai(ξa,i,ξb,i)[ϕ(γMξai)]cpγicp1,ξbiEMξbi(ξa,i,ξb,i)[ϕ(γMξbi)](p+3)(p+1)γi2EM(ξa,ξb)[γMϕ(γM)]+(p+1)FZ(ξa,ξb),
δk=2cpcp1,ξakEMξak(ξa,k,ξb,k)[Φ(γMξak)]cpcp1,ξbkEMξbk(ξa,k,ξb,k)[Φ(γMξbk)]+(p+1)γkEM(ξa,ξb)[ϕ(γM)],

i,j,k{1,2,,p}, ZSLaNp(0,Ip,γ), ZGSEp0,Ip,Gp,γ,Φ, MEp(0,Ip,Gp),

MEp(0,Ip,Gp) and MLap(0,Ip).

cpcp1,ξsk, cpcp1,ξsk and cpcp2,ξsk,ξtl can be further simplified as

cpcp1,ξsk=Γp22(p3)/2Γ(p)Γp12π0tp321+2t+ξs,k2exp2t+ξs,k2dt,
cpcp1,ξsk=Γp22(p3)/2Γ(p)Γp12π0tp32(2+32)t+ξs,k22+3exp2t+ξs,k2dt

and

cpcp2,ξsk,ξtl=2(p6)/2Γ(p1)π0tp42(2+32)t+ξs,k22+ξt,l22+3exp2t+ξs,k2+ξt,l2dt.

5. Applications

In this section, we mainly consider MTCE and MTCov for GSE distributions. Furthermore, we apply MDTE and MDTCov risk measures to construct an optimal problem.

Landsman et al. (Citation2018) proposed a new MTCE for a p×1 vector of risks Y=(Y1,Y2,,Yp)T with cdf FY(y):

MTCEq(Y)=EY|Y>VaRq(Y)
(19) =E[Y|Y1>VaRq1(Y1),,Yp>VaRqp(Yp)],(19)

where q=(q1,,qp)(0,1)p,

(20) VaRq(Y)=(VaRq1(Y1),VaRq2(Y2),,VaRqp(Yp)),(20)

and VaRqk(Yk), k{1,2,,p}, denotes the qk-th quantile of Yk. See Landsman et al. (Citation2016) for a special case when q=(q,,q)(0,1)p. Landsman et al. (Citation2018) further proposed a novel form of MTCov:

MTCovq(Y)=E(YMTCEq(Y))(YMTCEq(Y))|Y>VaRq(Y)
(21) =infcRpE(Yc)(Yc)|Y>VaRq(Y).(21)

From Proposition 1, we give the following corollary.

Corollary 5

Let YGSEp(μ,Σ,gp,H) (p2) be as in (1). Suppose that it satisfies conditions

(22) limzk+zkH(z)Gp12zz=0,k{1,2,,p}(22)

and

(23) limzk+H(z)Gp12zz=0,k{1,2,,p}.(23)

Further, assume iH and ijH exist for ∀i,j{1,2,,p}. Then

(24) (I˜)MTEq(Y)=μ+Σ12δFZ(ξq),(24)
(25) (II˜)MTCovq(Y)=Σ12ΩFZ(ξq)δδFZ2(ξq)Σ12,(25)

where Ω=(Ωij)i,j=1p is a p×p symmetric matrix, and δ=(δ1,δ2,,δp) is a p×1 vector. Here

Ωij=2cpcp2,ξqi,ξqjEMξqi,ξqjξq,ij[H(Mξqi,ξqj)]+cpcp1,ξqiEMξqiξq,i[jH(Mξqi)]+cpcp1,ξqjEMξqjξq,j[iH(Mξqj)]+cpcpEMξq[ijH(M)],ij,
Ωii=2cpξq,icp1,ξqiEMξqiξq,i[H(Mξqi)]+cpcp1,ξqiEMξqiξq,i[iH(Mξqi)]+cpcpEMξq[iiH(M)]+cpcpFZ(ξq),
δk=2cpcp1,ξqkEMξqkξq,k[H(Mξqk)]+cpcpEMξq[kH(M)],

i,j,k{1,2,,p}, ξq=ξq,1,ξq,2,,ξq,p=Σ12(VaRq(Y)μ), Z, M,Z, M, Mξsk, Mξsk and Mξsk,ξtl are given in Theorem 1. In addition, FW() is the tail function of W.

Proof.

Letting a=VaRq(Y) and b+ in Theorem 1 and Proposition 1, and combining with conditions (22) and (23), we can instantly obtain above results, ending the proofs.

Note that the results (I˜) and (II˜) of Corollary 5 coincide with Theorem 3.1 and Theorem 1 in Zuo and Yin (Citation2022b, Citation2022a), respectively.

Example 1

(SN distribution). Let YSNp(μ,Σ,γ). Then, forms of MTCE and MTCov of Y are the same as in (24) and (25), and δk and Ωij are given by

Ωij=2ϕ(ξq,i)ϕ(ξq,j)EMξqi,ξqjξq,ij[Φ(γMξqi,ξqj)]+γjϕ(ξq,i)EMξqiξq,i[ϕ(γMξqi)]+γiϕ(ξq,j)EMξqjξq,j[ϕ(γMξqj)]γiγjEMξq[γMϕ(γM)],ij,
Ωii=2ϕ(ξq,i)ξq,iEMξqiξq,i[Φ(γMξqi)]+γiϕ(ξq,i)EMξqiξq,i[ϕ(γMξqi)]γi2EMξq[γMϕ(γM)]+FZ(ξq),
δk=2ϕ(ξq,k)EMξqkξq,k[Φ(γMξqk)]+γkEMξq[ϕ(γM)],

where i,j,k{1,2,,p}, ξq=ξq,1,ξq,2,,ξq,p=Σ12VaRqYμ, Z, M, Mξsk and Mξsk,ξtl are given in Corollary 1.

Let Y=(Y1,Y2,,Yp) be an n risk assets, μ=(E[Y1],E[Y2],,E[Yp]) be expected returns, and C be covariance matrix of Y. For our portfolio Yp=ωTY, there is following optimal problem:

(26) minωω,(26)

which satisfies condition 1ω=1 and μω+11ωr=El, where ω=(ω1,,ωp), 1=(1,,1), and r is a risk-free rate.

Suppose that we have a system of n risks of assets such that YGSEp(μ,Σ,gp,H). The above classical optimal model can extend to following optimal problem involving MDTE and MDTCov risk measures of Y. That is to say, we suggest taking the MDTE and MDTCov measures instead of the expectation and covariance matrix of the portfolio risk, i.e.

μ=E[Y]MDTE(a,b)(Y),
C=Cov[Y]MDTCov(a,b)(Y).

We would have following an optimal problem:

(27) minωωMDTCov(a,b)(Y)ω,(27)

which satisfies condition MDTE(a,b)(Y)ω+(11ω)r=El.

For above optimal problem, there is following theorem.

Theorem 2.

Assume MDTCov(a,b)(Y) is invertible, the optimal solution of (27) subject to MDTE(a,b)(Y)ω+(11ω)r=El, is given by

ω=(Elr)MDTCov(a,b)(Y)1[MDTE(a,b)(Y)1r][MDTE(a,b)(Y)1r]MDTCov(a,b)(Y)1[MDTE(a,b)(Y)1r].

Proof. The proof relies on the classical optimal solution of (26) if μ and C substitute with MDTE(a,b)(Y) and MDTCov(a,b)(Y).

6. Numerical illustrations

In this section, we compare MDTEs and MDTCovs for the skew-normal (SN), skew-Student-t (SSt), skew-logistic (SLo) and skew-Laplace-normal (SLaN) distributions, examine MDTE, MDTCov for the skew-normal (SN) distribution, and discuss MTCE and MTCov of logarithm of adjusted prices for six companies.

A comparison of MDTE and MDTCov for several skewed distributions

Firstly, we compute and compare MDTEs and MDTCovs for the SN, SSt, SLo and SLaN distributions. Let a=(1,1,2),b=(2,5,3), and denote XSN3(μ,Σ,γ), YSSt3(μ,Σ,5,γ), ZSLo3(μ,Σ,γ) and SSLaN3(μ,Σ,γ) with parameters

μ=1.00.52.0,Σ=1.00.20.50.22.00.30.50.33.0,and γ=2.00.11.0.

By Theorem 1, Proposition 1 and Corollaries 1-4, we can obtain MDTEs and MDTCovs for X, Y, Z and S in (a,b), as follows:

MDTE(a,b)(X)=1.5282311.9096022.459128,MDTCov(a,b)(X)=1010.7448830.0323260.0579140.0323265.2345340.0188640.0579140.0188640.807445,
MDTE(a,b)(Y)=1.5164631.9046802.457805,MDTCov(a,b)(Y)=1010.7484020.0370960.0585970.0370965.9964120.0027520.0585970.0027520.805603,
MDTE(a,b)(Z)=1.5350322.1426772.471507,MDTCov(a,b)(Z)=1010.7824270.1182220.0281640.1182226.5522600.0402190.0281640.0402190.820320,
MDTE(a,b)(S)=1.5385292.2137602.461738,MDTCov(a,b)(S)=1010.7529740.0915190.0593280.0915199.5231840.0218160.0593280.0218160.811282.

The MDTEs of X, Y, Z and S for (a,b) are pictured in .

Figure 1. MDTEs of X, Y, Z and S for (a,b).

Figure 1. MDTEs of X, Y, Z and S for (a,b).

For MDTEs, from we find that the MDTE of skew-Student-t distribution is least among the four at (a,b), and skew-Laplace-normal distribution is almost largest among the four at (a,b) except for component (or risk) 3. Moreover, the MDTE of the skew-Student-t and skew-normal models distinguishes little from each other. As for MDTCovs, we observe that the diagonal of MDTCov matrix under skew-logistic distribution is almost largest among the four at (a,b) except for component (or risk) 2, and the diagonal of MDTCov matrix under skew-normal is almost largest among all models at (a,b) except for component (or risk) 3.

6.2. A comparison between simulated estimation and formula calculation

Now, to compare our approach and Monte Carlo method, without loss of generality (or for the sake of simplicity), we use 2-dimensional skew-normal, skew-Student-t, skew-logistic and skew-Laplace-normal distributions as examples. We compute multivariate doubly truncated expectation, multivariate doubly truncated covariance for SN, SSt, SLo and SLaN distributions. Let a=2,2,b=6,7, \mathP=(P1,P2)SN2(\muu,\mathΣ,\gammaa), \mathQ=(Q1,Q2)SSt2(\muu,ΣΣ,5,γ), \mathV=(V1,V2)SLo2(\muu,ΣΣ,\gammaa) and \mathM=(M1,M2)SLaN2(μ,Σ,γ) with parameters

μ=34,Σ=0.90.50.50.7,and γ=12.

From Theorem 1, Proposition 1 and Corollaries 1-4, the multivariate doubly truncated expectation and multivariate doubly truncated covariance matrix of P, Q, V and M for (a,b) can be obtained as

MDTE(a,b)(P)=μ=3.5397054.617195,MDTCov(a,b)(P)=Σ=0.5640550.1798850.1798850.327188,
MDTE(a,b)(Q)=μ=3.5818434.660948,MDTCov(a,b)(Q)=Σ=0.6685820.2277680.2277680.445598.
MDTE(a,b)(V)=μ=3.6630454.717363,MDTCov(a,b)(V)=Σ=0.7220570.2374710.2374710.484226.
MDTE(a,b)(M)=μ=3.7207544.828931,MDTCov(a,b)(M)=Σ=0.8451350.2398720.2398720.574473.

We use Monte-Carlo method (R software) to simulate them as presented in :

Figure 2. The trace plots of the Monte Carlo estimates of the 2 elements of μ  (μ1 (left) and μ2 (right)).

Figure 2. The trace plots of the Monte Carlo estimates of the 2 elements of μ ∗ (μ1∗ (left) and μ2∗ (right)).

Figure 3. The trace plots of the Monte Carlo estimates of the three elements of Σ (σ11 (left), σ22 (center) and σ12 (right)).

Figure 3. The trace plots of the Monte Carlo estimates of the three elements of Σ ∗ (σ11∗ (left), σ22∗ (center) and σ12∗ (right)).

Figure 4. The trace plots of the Monte Carlo estimates of the 2 elements of μ   (μ1 (left) and μ2 (right)).

Figure 4. The trace plots of the Monte Carlo estimates of the 2 elements of μ  † (μ1† (left) and μ2† (right)).

Figure 5. The trace plots of the Monte Carlo estimates of the three elements of Σ (σ11 (left), σ22 (center) and σ12 (right)).

Figure 5. The trace plots of the Monte Carlo estimates of the three elements of Σ† (σ11† (left), σ22† (center) and σ12† (right)).

Figure 6. The trace plots of the Monte Carlo estimates of the 2 elements of μ  (μ1 (left) and μ2 (right)).

Figure 6. The trace plots of the Monte Carlo estimates of the 2 elements of μ ∘ (μ1∘ (left) and μ2∘ (right)).

Figure 7. The trace plots of the Monte Carlo estimates of the three elements of Σ ° (σ11 (left), σ22 (center) and σ12 (right)).

Figure 7. The trace plots of the Monte Carlo estimates of the three elements of Σ ° (σ11∘ (left), σ22∘ (center) and σ12∘ (right)).

Figure 8. The trace plots of the Monte Carlo estimates of the 2 elements of μ   (μ1 (left) and μ2 (right)).

Figure 8. The trace plots of the Monte Carlo estimates of the 2 elements of μ  ‡ (μ1‡ (left) and μ2‡ (right)).

Figure 9. The trace plots of the Monte Carlo estimates of the three elements of Σ\math (σ11 (left), σ22 (center) and σ12 (right)).

Figure 9. The trace plots of the Monte Carlo estimates of the three elements of Σ\math‡ (σ11‡ (left), σ22‡ (center) and σ12‡ (right)).

The trace plots in , respectively, display the evolution of Monte-Carlo estimates of the elements of μ and Σ, for growing sample sizes. Here, the dotted line represents the corresponding theoretical value. As we see in , with the increase of the number of samples, the MDTE or MDTCov value estimated by Monte Carlo becomes more stable and closer to the theoretical value (as we expect). Furthermore, we observe that the number of samples need to be large enough in order to get the parameter value estimated by Monte Carlo method closer to the theoretical value.

The trace plots in , respectively, display the evolution of Monte Carlo estimates of the elements of μ and Σ, for growing sample sizes. The trace plots in , respectively, display the evolution of Monte Carlo estimates of the elements of μ and Σ, for growing sample sizes. The trace plots in , respectively, display the evolution of Monte Carlo estimates of the elements of μ and Σ, for growing sample sizes. Here the dotted line represents the corresponding theoretical value. From , we find that for theoretical value and estimated value by Monte Carlo method, (skewed normal distribution), (skewed Student-t distribution), (skewed logistic distribution) and (skewed Laplace-normal distribution) have similar conclusions.

6.3. Real data analysis

Next, we discuss the logarithm of adjusted prices of two portfolios consisting of three companies from S\ampP (Standard \amp Poor’s) sectors. Financials sector (the first portfolio) includes Chubb Limited, Cincinnati Financial and Citigroup Inc. companies, and Energy sector (the second portfolio) includes ConocoPhillips, Devon Energy and Chevron Corp. companies (see Amiri and Balakrishnan (Citation2022) for details). The data are from the workdays for the period 1 April 2020 to 31 March 2021.

Because parameter evaluation of GSE distributions is still an unresolved and complex issue (or problem). At present, we find that R Package skewMLRM has a selection function for different subfamilies through their Akaike information criteria (AIC) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC). The subfamilies of this package include the multivariate scale mixtures of normal (SMN), the multivariate scale mixtures of skew-normal (SMSN) and the multivariate skew scale mixtures of normal (SSMN) classes.

Let U=(U1,U2,U3) and W=(W1,W2,W3), where Uk and Wk are, respectively, the logarithm of opening prices of the kth company in the Financials and Energy sectors. Then, we use the skewMLRM package to choose the model in each subclass, and their AIC and BIC values are shown in .

Table 1. Fitted distributions and their information criterion values to the logarithm of adjusted prices of different sectors.

The skew-normal distribution has the minimum AIC and BIC among others for U and W. Thus, we consider the skew-normal distribution for the observations as USN3(μ,Σ,γ) and WSN3(μ,Σ,γ). Parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood method:

μ=4.970364.519263.99962,Σ=0.128060.086100.083040.086100.218880.061420.083040.061420.15369,γ=2.481397.619380.81934,
μ=3.533282.158624.34448,Σ=0.130460.163600.075500.163600.452080.105140.075500.105140.07822,γ=1.222906.204670.74917.

PP-plots and bivariate scatter plots, with contour lines, for the skew-normal distributions are shown in .

Figure 10. PP plot for the skew-normal distribution for the logarithm of adjusted prices of companies in the financials (left) and energy sectors (right).

Figure 10. PP plot for the skew-normal distribution for the logarithm of adjusted prices of companies in the financials (left) and energy sectors (right).

Figure 11. Bivariate scatter plots with contour lines for the skew-normal distribution for the logarithm of adjusted prices of companies in the financials (left) and energy sectors (right).

Figure 11. Bivariate scatter plots with contour lines for the skew-normal distribution for the logarithm of adjusted prices of companies in the financials (left) and energy sectors (right).

Let q=(0.95,0.95,0.95), from Example 1 and Corollary 5, VaRs and MTCEs of U and W for q are presented in , respectively. Specifically, VaRq(U)=(VaRq1(U1),VaRq2(U2),VaRq3(U3)) and VaRqW=(VaRq1W1,VaRq2W2,VaRq3(W3)) can be computed by EquationEquation (20). As for MTCEq(U) and MTCEq(W), we can calculate corresponding ξq, δ and FZ(ξq) by Example 1, then we can obtain MTCEq(U) and MTCEq(W) by EquationEquation (24).

Table 2. The VaRs of U and W for q=(0.95,0.95,0.95)T.

Table 3. The MTCEs of U and W for q=(0.95,0.95,0.95)T.

As we see in , there is a clear difference between the MTCEq(U) and MTCEq(W). For U, the value of MTCE of Risk 1 (first component) is greatest, and the value of MTCE of Risk 2 (second component) is least. That is to say, for Financials sector, value of MTCE of Chubb Limited company is greatest, and value of MTCE of Cincinnati Financial company is least. However, for W, the value of MTCE of Risk 3 (third component) is greatest, and the value of MTCE of Risk 2 (second component) is least. It means that for Energy sector, value of MTCE of Chevron Corp. company is greatest, and value of MTCE of Devon Energy company is least. On the principle that the larger MTCE will have the better return, for Financials sector, we may prefer Chubb Limited company; For Energy sector, we may prefer Chevron Corp. company.

Then, MTCovs of U and W for q are presented as follows:

MTCovq(U)=1024.1563530.2909870.7902630.2909870.8036020.3115480.7902630.3115482.082908

and

MTCovq(W)=1022.7146771.1611110.6707361.1611118.6213870.4477100.6707360.4477101.539056.

From MTCov of U (diagonal elements), we observe that value of MTCov of U1 is greater than the others, and value of MTCov of U2 is least than the others. It indicates that for Financials sector, value of MTCov of Chubb Limited company is greater than the others, and value of MTCov of Cincinnati Financial company is least than the others. However, there is a big difference between W and U. As we can see, value of MTCov of W2 is greater than the others, and value of MTCov of W3 is least than the others. It signifies that for Energy sector, the value of MTCov of Devon Energy company is greater than the others, and value of MTCov of Chevron Corp. company is least than the others. On the principle that the smaller MTCov will have the smaller the risk, for Financials sector, we may prefer Cincinnati Financial company; For Energy sector sector, we may prefer Chevron Corp. company.

By Proposition 2 of Landsman et al. (Citation2018), for U and W, we can construct two confidence ellipsoids with probability α=0.95:

ΥU=tR3:(tMTEq(U))MTCovqU1tMTEqU60 and t>VaRqU

and

ΥW=tR3:(tMTEq(W))MTCovqW1tMTEqW60 and t>VaRqW.

For example, we find that x=(5.1,5.4,4.9)ΥW, but x=(5.1,5.4,4.9)ΥU. This indicates that x=(5.1,5.4,4.9)T belongs to the 95%-tail confidence ellipsoid of W, while it is outside of 3-dimensional ellipsoid of U.

7. Concluding remarks

In this paper, we have studied multivariate doubly truncated first two moments of GSE distributions, which provide further generalization of the moments for the doubly truncated multivariate normal mean-variance mixture distributions (Roozegar et al. (Citation2020)). With more emphasis on several important cases, for examples, SN, SSt, SLo and SLaN distributions. We have also presented MDTE and MDTCov for GSE distributions providing further generalization of the MDTE and MDTCov for elliptical distributions. As applications of our results, the MTCE and MTCov for generalized skew-elliptical distributions and an optimal problem involving MDTE and MDTCov risk measures are given. Aim to examine established results, we have used Monte Carlo method to estimate parameters. Kollo (Citation2008) have introduced skewness and kurtosis characteristics of a multivariate p-dimensional distribution, and derived expressions for the measures of skewness and kurtosis for the multivariate Laplace distribution. Loperfido (Citation2020) have investigated some properties of Koziol’s measures of multivariate kurtosis. It will, of course, be of interest to introduce and research doubly truncated skewness and kurtosis characteristics of a multivariate distribution, and present expressions of multivariate doubly truncated skewness and kurtosis for GSE distributions in a future paper.

CRediT authorship contribution statement

B. Zuo: Investigation, Writing, Software. S. Wang: Software. C. Yin: Writing – review \amp editing, Supervision, Validation.

Acknowledgments

The authors thank two anonymous reviewers and the Editor for their helpful comments and suggestions, which have led to the improvement of this article.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

The research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [No. 12071251] and Shandong Province Higher Education Youth Innovation and Technology Support Program [No. 2023KJ199].

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Appendix

ProofofTheorem1. (i) Using the transformation Z=Σ12(Yμ) and basic algebraic calculations, we have

E[Y|a<Yb]=EΣ12Z+μ|ξa<Zξb=μ+Σ12EZ|ξa<Zξb,

where ξv=ξv,1,ξv,2,,ξv,p=Σ12(vμ), v{a,b}.

By definition of conditional expectation, we obtain

EZ|ξa<Zξb=1FZ(ξa,ξb)ξaξbz2cpgp12zTzH(z)dz=δFZ(ξa,ξb),

where δ=(δ1,δ2,,δn).

Note that

δk=ξaξbzk2cpgp12zzH(z)dz=2cpξa,kξb,kξa,kξb,kH(z)kGp12zkzk+12zk2dz=2cpξa,kξb,k{[H(zξa,k)]Gp12zkzk+12ξa,k2[H(zξb,k)]Gp12zkzk+12ξb,k2}dzk+2cpξaξbkH(z)Gp12zzdz,

where zξv,k=(z1,,zk1,ξv,k,zk+1,,zp)T, v{a,b}, and we have used integration by parts in the third equality. Therefore, we obtain (17), and then we get (13), as required.

(ii) Similarly, using the transformation Z=Σ12(Yμ) and basic algebraic calculations, we have

E[YYT|a<Yb]=EΣ12Z+μΣ12Z+μ|ξa<Zξb=Σ12EZZ|ξa<ZξbΣ12+Σ12EZ|ξa<Zξbμ+μEZ|ξa<ZξbΣ12+μμ.

For EZZ|ξa<Zξb, by the definition of conditional expectation we obtain

EZZ|ξa<Zξb=1FZ(ξa,ξb)ξaξazzT2cpgp12zzH(z)dz=ΩFZ(ξa,ξb),

where Ω=(Ωij)i,j=1p.

Note that, for ij

Ωij=ξaξbzizj2cpgp12zzH(z)dz=2cpξa,iξb,iξa,iξb,izjH(z)iGp12zizi+12zi2dz=2cpξa,iξb,i[zjH(zξa,i)Gp12zizi+12ξa,i2zjH(zξb,i)Gp12zizi+12ξb,i2]dzi+2cpξaξbzjiH(z)Gp12zzdz=2cpξa,ijξb,ijξa,jξb,j[H(zξa,i)jGp12zizi+12ξa,i2+H(zξb,i)jGp12zizi+12ξb,i2]dzi+2cpξa,jξb,jξa,jξb,jiH(z)jGp12zjzj+12zj2dz=2cpξa,ijξb,ij[H(zξai,ξbj)Gp12zijzij+12ξa,i2+12ξa,j2H(zξai,ξbj)Gp12zijzij+12ξa,i2+12ξb,j2+ξa,jξb,jjH(zξa,i)Gp12zizi+12ξa,i2dzj+H(zξbi,ξbj)Gp12zijTzij+12ξb,i2+12ξbj2H(zξbi,ξaj)Gp12zijzij+12ξb,i2+12ξaj2ξa,jξb,jjH(zξb,i)Gp12zizi+12ξb,i2dzj]dzij+2cpξa,jξb,j[iH(zξa,j)Gp12zjzj+12ξa,j2iH(zξb,j)Gp12zjzj+12ξb,j2+ξa,jξb,jijH(z)Gp12zzdzj]dzj,

where zξvi,ξvj=(z1,,zi1,ξv,i,zi+1,,zj1,ξv,j,zj+1,,zp)T,v{a,b}, and we have used integration by parts in the third and fifth equalities. Hence, we have (15).

While

Ωii=ξaξbzi22cpgp12zzH(z)dz=2cpξa,iξb,iξa,iξb,iziH(z)iGp12zizi+12zi2dz=2cpξa,iξb,i{ξa,iH(zξa,i)Gp12zizi+12ξa,i2ξb,iH(zξb,i)Gp12zizi+12ξb,i2+ξa,iξb,iiH(z)iGp12zizi+12zi2dzi}dzi+2cpξaξbH(z)Gp12zzdz=2cpξa,iξb,i{ξa,iH(zξa,i)Gp12zizi+12ξa,i2ξb,iH(zξb,i)Gp12zizi+12ξb,i2+iH(zξa,i)Gp12zizi+12ξa,i2iH(zξb,i)Gp12zizi+12ξb,i2}dzi+2cpξaξbiiH(z)Gp12zzdz+2cpξaξbH(z)Gp12zzdz,

where we have used integration by parts in the third and fourth equalities. Thus, we get (16).

As for EZ|ξa<Zξb, using (i) we directly obtain EZ|ξa<Zξb=δFZ(ξa,ξb). Consequently, we obtain (14), ending the proof of (ii).

ProofofProposition1. By the definition of MDTCov, we have

MDTCov(a,b)(Y)=E(YMDTE(a,b)(Y))(YMDTE(a,b)(Y))|a<Yb
=EYY|a<YbMDTE(a,b)(Y)MDTE(a,b)(Y).

Applying (i) and (ii) of Theorem 1, and using basic algebraic calculations we instantly obtain (18), completing the proof.

ProofofProposition2. By definition of conditional probability, we have

Pr(YMUEb(Y))MUCovb(Y)1(YMUEb(Y))ε|Yb=1Pr(Yb)RpfY(y)IABdy=RpfL(l)ICdl=Pr(LE(L))Cov(L)1(LE(L))ε,

where A={YRp:Xb}, B={YRp:(YMUEb(Y))MUCovb(Y)1(YMUEb(Y))ε}, C={LRp:(LE(L))Cov(L)1(LE(L))ε}, fL(l)=1Pr(Yb)fY(y)IA is a truncated pdf.

Using Theorem 1 of Navarro (Citation2016), we obtain

Pr(LE(L))Cov(L)1(LE(L))εpε,

as required.