Global Renewable Electricity Policy: A Comparative Policy Analysis of Countries by Income Status

Abstract

Although the drivers of renewable electricity (RE) are well-established among Western high-income countries, little is known about the factors that encourage RE development elsewhere. This paper analyzes an unprecedented, original dataset of 149 countries from 1990 to 2010 to compare the policy instruments and other factors that influence RE adoption across low-, middle-, and high-income countries. We find the factors driving RE development vary both across income group and between hydroelectric and non-hydro generation. Most notably for environmental concerns, non-hydroelectric RE generation is driven by feed-in-tariffs and renewable portfolio standards in high-income countries, feed-in tariffs alone in middle-income countries, and by subsidies in low-income countries. Non-policy drivers of RE also vary by country income level.

Keywords:

• comparative policy
• renewable electricity
• cross-national policy analysis
• feed-in-tariff
• developing countries
• low-income
• middle-income
• high-income

Notes

1. The authors group the countries using World Bank GNI data because it is the most complete available, and the measurement strategy is consistent across time. As tests of robustness, alternative model specifications, available upon request, substitute the United Nations Human Development Indicators for GNI with consistent results.The authors performed several statistical analyses to confirm that the countries should be divided into groups based on income: first, with a pooled ordinary least squares model in which GNI-level dummies were included; second, by adding an interaction term between GNI level and policy adoption; third, by running a fixed effects model with the interaction terms; and fourth, by performing a chi-square test for independence. In each case, results showed statistically significant differences among income groups. The authors chose to split the sample in order to facilitate the interpretation of coefficients, given the large number of interaction terms necessary to estimate the differential effect of several policy and non-policy drivers in a pooled analysis.

2. The authors do not use a measure of installed capacity because generation provides a measure of the actual output of a renewable electricity facility, and installed capacity does not.

3. Framework policies are included as a component of administrative capacity rather than as a direct RE support policy.

4. For all countries with active sub-national policy activity, such as the US, India, Australia, and others, these countries were coded to equal one if a specific policy affected 25 per cent or more of their total electricity load. The authors tested the sensitivity of this assumption by running models that used a smaller and larger threshold value, but did not find substantive differences in primary results.While it would be ideal to include a more nuanced measure of policy presence, such as a measure of policy stringency or a dollar per electricity unit measure, it is not possible to construct such a measure due to the variation in which these policies are designed across jurisdictions.

5. The authors performed several statistical tests to ensure that they used an appropriate model specification. They tested the functional form of the dependent and several independent variables. They also tested for normality and heteroskedasticity.

6. As a robustness check, the authors also performed the analysis with RE as a percentage of total electricity, as well as with logged RE total. Results were similar for high-income and low-income countries, but showed an insignificant relationship between FIT adoption and RE generation in middle-income countries. This analysis is available upon request from the authors.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Elizabeth Baldwin

Elizabeth Baldwin is an Assistant Professor at the University of Arizona School of Government and Public Policy. Her research focuses on energy and water policy and environmental governance.

Sanya Carley

Sanya Carley is an Associate Professor at Indiana University in the School of Public and Environmental Affairs. Her research examines electricity and transportation policies.

Jennifer N. Brass

Jennifer N. Brass is an Assistant Professor at Indiana University in the School of Public and Environmental Affairs. Her scholarly work focuses on service provision and governance in developing countries.

Lauren M. MacLean

Lauren M. MacLean is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at Indiana University. Her research examines the politics of non-state service provision and citizenship in Africa.