Designing Policy Pilots under Climate Uncertainty: A Conceptual Framework for Comparative Analysis

Abstract

An ongoing challenge while designing policies pertains to their proportionality with the change that is likely or expected in a future policy context. This article conceptualizes proportionality as a feature of policy design to compare different policy strategies launched in response to current and expected changes in the policy context and contributes to comparative policy theory and practice. The conceptual framework is operationalized with climate change as a complex policy problem that challenges policymakers in designing proportionate strategies to enable adaptation to change in the climate and associated impacts. Under conditions of uncertainty, policy piloting provides an opportunity to experiment and test the design features of alternatives to status quo policies to function in a changed policy context. The theoretical discussion is supplemented with examples of policy pilots launched as a form of policy experimentation to address climatic risks to agriculture in rainfed zones of India. Policy design features in four settings of change in policy context, ranging from small-scale incremental to highly flexible adaptive responses, are compared using the framework of proportionality.

Keywords:

• proportionality
• uncertainty
• climate change adaptation
• policy piloting
• comparative analysis
• rainfed agriculture
• India

Correction Statement

This article has been republished with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article.

Notes

1. This article is part of a Special issue “Comparison of Policy Experiments: Practices in the Asia-Pacific Region” with guest editor Xufeng Zhu.

2. Conservation agriculture. Available online: https://csa.guide/csa/conservation-agriculture-ca

3. Cereal systems in South Asia show diverse benefits of conservation agriculture. Available online: https://www.cimmyt.org/blogs/cereal-systems-in-south-asia-show-diverse-benefits-of-conservation-agriculture/

4. The term “coping” has been borrowed from the climate change adaptation literature, where it is commonly used to indicate the short-term nature of these measures to deal with climatic stress. Designing such short-term measures for dealing with sudden shifts in policy context is however not limited to climate change issue.

5. Cluster of villages considered as one unit for administrative reasons purposes such as taxes and land tenure in the southern states of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, India.

6. There are two major cropping seasons in India: Kharif (summer/monsoons) and Rabi (winter). Kharif crops are sown in May at the beginning of the south-west monsoon, and harvested by September/October. Main kharif food crops are rice, millet, maize, groundnut, sugarcane and cotton. Kharif crops are water-intensive in nature and are thus affected by changes in rainfall patterns and irrigation availability. Rabi crops require a cooler climate during their growth period and a warmer climate during germination and maturity. Main rabi crops are wheat, barley, mustard, sesame and peas. These crops are sown from October to December and harvested between February and April.

7. “Weather Based Crop Insurance Scheme: Frequently Asked Questions”, http://www.aicofindia.com/AICEng/General_Documents/Product_Profiles/WBCIS_FAQ.pdf

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Sreeja Nair

Sreeja Nair is a Research Fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew Centre for Innovative Cities, Singapore University of Technology and Design and works on socio-political aspects of digital disruption. Her research interests include policy design under uncertainty and impacts of environmental change on urban and rural communities, focusing on water and agriculture. Sreeja has a PhD in Public Policy from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (National University of Singapore), Masters in Climate and Society (Columbia University) and Environmental Studies (TERI University, India).