Effect of risk on economic efficiency of overcladding system

Abstract

When a decision is taken about assembling an overcladding system on building external walls, an expected profit is calculated according to the economic discounting formulae. However, these formulae do not take into account the unplanned repair costs. The unplanned repairs have to be done to remove the defects which appear on a building wall overcladding during its service life. In order to do that the authors have performed the expert's surveys of technical condition of the existing overcladdings. These overcladdings were assembled on the external walls of 497 apartment buildings located in Wrocław (Poland) in 1990.2000. The qualitative results of technical condition expert's surveys, their transformation into the quantitative values done according to the elaborated model and estimation of the risk related to the expected profit decrease are presented in the article.

Santrauka

Priimant sprendimus apie pastato išoriniu sienu apdaro irengima, atsižvelgiama i pelna, kuris laukiamas igyvendinus apdaro projekta. Laukiamasis pelnas skaičiuojamas pasitelkiant ekonomines diskontavimo formules. Šios formules neivertina neplanuotu išlaidu pastato apdarui remontuoti. Neplanuoti remontai turi būti atliekami apdaro eksploatavimo periode atsirandantiems defektams šalinti. Autoriai nusprende tirti šia problema ir tam atliko egzituojančiu pastatu apdaro būkles ekspertini vertinima. 1990–2000 m. buvo tirtos 497 gyvenamuju pastatu Vroclave (Lenkija) išorines sienos. Kokybiniai vertinimo rezultatai buvo transformuoti i kiekybinius, pasitelkiant išsamu autoriu sukurta modeli. Remiantis pastaraisiais rezultatais, buvo ivertinta laukiamojo pelno sumažejimo rizika. Rizikos vertinimas aprašytas šiame straipsnyje.

Keywords:

• risk
• economic efficiency
• overcladding system

Reikšminiai žodžiai::

• rizika
• ekonominis efektyvumas
• sienu apdaras